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  • #383,361
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:24pm Feb 9, 2011 2:24pm
did not quiet go as low as i thought it might but now the 1.3640 handle is broken . Thinking 1.3850 to 1.3900 by end of week,,, then take it from there

Quoting malcolmb14
hunch

in fact according to weekly i am pretty bullish overall and believe that we may even see 1.5 based on symmetry of moves.

I really want to see another down move into 1.33 area and see how the weekly plays out when and if this happens.


I have this odd feeling that the down move Thursday of 200 pip and the small range day friday were just a wave down ... oil was almost certainly a shake out as now on the weekend we have ' gas line leak explosion in Egypt' the 2% drop in oil on the shake out would be enough to make eu weekly look the...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #383,362
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:26pm Feb 9, 2011 2:26pm
ummm sounds like sell the rallies upto 3801
Quoting kill56
lol bro we have some levels to go through befor we get there

3737 47 57 67 the top line should be the max or the SL according to zup
  • #383,363
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:35pm Feb 9, 2011 2:35pm
As posted yesterday.

Unfortunately it took out my stop before going there so i was -40 on it instead of +80 or so!!
  • #383,364
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:37pm Feb 9, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting Venice
You must think in terms of activity, rather then weight.

Stocks report volume, meaning x number of dollars moved during the specified time period.

Forex, we are looking at how many times the bid/ask has changed.

A measure of volatility (forex) vs volatility & bias (stocks)...

anyways... there is an apparent lack of beer around these parts...

You got it, in a nutshell, "(tick)volume" in FX is the number of price changes and the ticks are added to "show" "volume" but does not reflect "real" volume. You can have a low tick volume but still have a couple of yard getting through at one bid/ask. Measuring ticks to get volume just means that there are different bids/asks lined up at different prices, it does not reflect in any way how big those bid/asks are. That is the difference with true volume where you do know the size. Tick volume just tells you there are different bids lined up, therefore you have no clue whether they are a 1 mill retail order or GS flogging a couple hundred mill. And that makes tick volume in FX irrelevant. Tick volume is a closer measurement of liquidity then volume. The "volume" traders will never understand that and actually make trading decisions on liquidity and have no clue what the corresponding volume is.

But heh, don't let a good retail myth get in the way of the truth. 99% of retailers have no clue what the difference is between liquidity and volume and interchange the terminology at will to suit their reasoning.
  • #383,365
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:38pm Feb 9, 2011 2:38pm
looks like algos been playing fibo ping pong past hour or so...
  • #383,366
  • Edited Feb 10, 2011 8:31am Feb 9, 2011 2:45pm | Edited Feb 10, 2011 8:31am
In hope that you all extract green pips from the market, I wish to post this. It starts from yesterday when I posted my view and ends today as I go to bed. I have highlighted typical weak holder shakeouts so that you anticipate them next time. The market is full of bullies and they want to trick you off your hard earned dough. I have no future outlook as my brain is super tired and I'm not thinking straight today. Always remember to "Have a Plan and Trade that Plan"
Take care

And yes tick volume does work for some. But I like think in the lines of Order Flow Analysis (not VSA)). Darkstar is a champ in that field. Search his post if you are interested
  • #383,367
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:48pm Feb 9, 2011 2:48pm
Quoting momento
In hope that you all extract green pips from the market, I wish to post this. It starts from yesterday when I posted my view and ends today as I go to bed. I have highlighted typical weak holder shakeouts so that you anticipate them next time. The market is full of bullies and they want to trick you off your hard earned dough. I have no future outlook as my brain is super tired and I'm not thinking straight today. Always remember to "Have a Plan and Trade that Plan"
Take care
Yup, shakeouts are taking place most of the time on different time frames...
  • #383,368
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:48pm Feb 9, 2011 2:48pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 61 KB



had a few minor scalps on eu - but this cluster might resolve south
  • #383,369
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:50pm Feb 9, 2011 2:50pm
RECAP


2011-02-08 _ 23h00 CET _ EUR-USD : CLOSING (Tuesday)





EUR-USD : 1.35827 (rollover close / rollover open)





(±02) Trend + Potential (neutral + mild bullish risk) Potenzial ist ganz leicht gestiegen ...

0.0116 Écart

1.3508 Elliott EX-Reversal Point

1.3727 Elliott Projection (possible a re-test of support zone 1.3569 in correction zigzag 1.3686 structure)



pivots + spezi



1.3801 1.3742
1.3745 1.3700
1.3689 1.3656
1.3685 1.3636


1.3629 1.3631 <= central pp zone


1.3569 1.3625
1.3573 1.3609
1.3513 1.3561
1.3453 1.3519


Ok ... rolli time is over ... this is what we had for today ...



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #383,370
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:57pm Feb 9, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


had a few minor scalps on eu - but this cluster might resolve south
crazy buying today... perhaps good... i haven't placed a short yet but probably will do tomorrow to see what london does.. i see price stalled at 61.8% retracement.... but it may revisit 1.3850 for double top.... price never really retested this level so we may see a spike up.

i have one short on au from 1.0185 since yesterday... tp still at 1.0060.. tp2 1.0002...

over to gu
  • #383,371
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:59pm Feb 9, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting thorr
Hello Magix
i like your chart, we may have nice h&s here,
i am just curios about when and if are you going to move sl to be ?
the main difference i got in stoch i got default 5,3,3 and on dailies we are just to move up.
thanks for answer in advance
Sorry for the delayed response, I was running a few errands...

I took 20 on 1 and am going to ride the other one out...

As the new high was created in NY session, I would anticipate and expect another run at it...so, no, I am not moving my stop, but might not be around if we come close and fall like rain. I seen opportunity at a critical level and took a trade...

If it gets taken out, it gets taken out, that's kinda the reason behind it...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #383,372
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:04pm Feb 9, 2011 3:04pm
shorting EU again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_8.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #383,373
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:04pm Feb 9, 2011 3:04pm
Possibly due a pull back to the weekly pivot to test the new rising channel line (area highlighted)...

edit: this hypothesis does not preclude a topside shakeout before hand...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image23.jpg Size: 443 KB
  • #383,374
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:06pm Feb 9, 2011 3:06pm
This is last week 1/2 all over again, everyone screaming out short short as it steamed to 1.386X, I can't see why this time won't be any different.

Most should bail @ 1.398X - That is where I begin selling.
  • #383,375
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:11pm Feb 9, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
no offence but these bat or butterfly charts are becoming common as head and shoulders.

speaking of H&S... this one looks active... target 1.3865.... flat on eu for sure... going to short at a higher price...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 80 KB
  • #383,376
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:12pm Feb 9, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting Warwick
This is last week 1/2 all over again, everyone screaming out short short as it steamed to 1.386X, I can't see why this time won't be any different.

Most should bail @ 1.398X - That is where I begin selling.
In my hypothesis, the up trend remains intact, so I hope you don't think that I am screaming short short.

The thing is that it don't go route one often, and sessions have a habit of retracing the previous session...
  • #383,377
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:14pm Feb 9, 2011 3:14pm
2011-02-09 _ 23h00 CET _ EUR-USD : CLOSING (Wednesday)





EUR-USD : 1.37325 (rollover close / rollover open)





(±02) Trend + Potential (neutral + mild bullish risk) Potenzial ist gleich geblieben ...

0.0133 Écart

1.3508 Elliott EX-Reversal Point

1.3862 Elliott Projection (possibly a re-test of 1.3696 zone and further flat correction up 1.3809 structure)



pivots + spezi



1.3914 1.3805
1.3829 1.3757
1.3744 1.3707
1.3781 1.3684


1.3696 1.3678 <= central pp zone


1.3648 1.3671
1.3611 1.3648
1.3563 1.3598
1.3515 1.3550


Erstellte Punkte

E-Punkt K-Punkt

1.3704 1.3788

Linie-1 Linie-2

1.3663 1.3634


Quick Tip ... without any comments, details or further hints ...








;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #383,378
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:17pm Feb 9, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
In my hypothesis, the up trend remains intact, so I hope you don't think that I am screaming short short.

The thing is that it don't go route one often, and sessions have a habit of retracing the previous session...
Well your right, but recall the run-up to 1.386x - the retraces in that case were minimal at best, on same days ~45 pips. I'm not suggesting that it can't retrace all it's gains in minutes but there are too many stops (retail at least) building above 1.37 and 38 to be ignored.
  • #383,379
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:20pm Feb 9, 2011 3:20pm
Quoting Warwick
Well your right, but recall the run-up to 1.386x - the retraces in that case were minimal at best, on same days ~45 pips. I'm not suggesting that it can't retrace all it's gains in minutes but there are too many stops (retail at least) building above 1.37 and 38 to be ignored.
Agree 3780 to 3800 seems an obvious place based on pivots...
  • #383,380
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:22pm Feb 9, 2011 3:22pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Agree seems an obvious place based on pivots...
Not a big fan of charts. .... 90% positioning stats.
The human is mind is very predictable over time, hence where the herd will place their stops.
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