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Sonic R. System

  • #17,401
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:05am Feb 9, 2011 8:05am
Quoting traderathome
Excellent work and analysis, Nando_rich! You're the MAN!

BTW Sonicers, I posted a STOP LOSS WARNING on the UJ trade posted above. Please go back and review it.
TAH. Is that right?My eurusd hit my sl
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  • #17,402
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:19am Feb 9, 2011 8:19am
Quoting lirongguang
TAH. Is that right?My eurusd hit my sl
See my last post. While awaiting a USD High Impact release, the market can still move. It is not uncommon for PPMs to use "before release" hours to move prices in whatever direction is going to give them the most profit once the "after release" drive starts.

This presents a big problem with using a Stop Loss on a trade running during that time. I know of only two solutions:

1. Don't have a trade running! Not even starting soon after an apparent drive starts after the "release" has been made. Just wait a day, or maybe just hours, and look for the next setup/trade.

2. Or risk not using a SL. If your guess is correct, then whipsawing or not, you will be ok. If your guess is not correct, then you will have to deal with closing the trade later, at a loss, or risk holding until a future pullback or reverse run.

There is no easy answer/solution if you have a trade running during this timeframe. Some traders just stay away and wait for PA to "reset" after any run off of a release, which is obviously the safest way to trade.
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  • #17,403
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:26am Feb 9, 2011 8:26am
Quoting lirongguang
TAH. Is that right?My eurusd hit my sl
I mean that the main problem is, that you´ve put SL only few points above wave 2 top, and didn´t count with ask/bid price...´cause if you did, you would be still alive...
Just place the same SL next time, but + difference between ask/bid price...

Good luck
Lose small, WIN BIG..
  • #17,404
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:27am Feb 9, 2011 8:27am
Quoting traderathome
See my last post. While awaiting a USD High Impact release, the market can still move. It is not uncommon for PPMs to use "before release" hours to move prices in whatever direction is going to give them the most profit once the "after release" drive starts.

This presents a big problem with using a Stop Loss on a trade running during that time. I know of only two solutions:

1. Don't have a trade running! Not even starting soon after an apparent drive starts after the "release" has been made. Just wait a day, or maybe just hours, and look...
Thanks.So you are waiting ?
  • #17,405
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:36am Feb 9, 2011 8:36am
Quoting lirongguang
Thanks.So you are waiting ?
I am already in a short trade on EU, with multiple entries from prior weeks and with a current average entry of 1.3505. So, PA still has to drop some before I am in profit. It will happen, but I will just have to wait. If PA gets pumped to near 1.3700 before the release, I might make a "swing high" small addition to the short trade. But that would not be a SonicR trade.

So, yes, in a sense I am waiting.....to see if the PPMs make a pre-event push to the upper whole number area.
  • #17,406
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:52am Feb 9, 2011 8:52am
carefull the wave is unclear.. long run on EU look real to me.. but no sonicR so no trade..
SonY, Gold Is Every Where Gold, but Human Not Gold..
  • #17,407
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:58am Feb 9, 2011 8:58am
Quoting traderathome
AU:

This is setting up as a SonicR short. I entered on previous WAVE near start of asian session. Possible EP, SL and TP areas are marked in the picture with rectangles.
I have added to this short trade at 1.0126, at the top of the EP zone. The EP Average is now 1.0020, about 100 pips below current PA.
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  • #17,408
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:11am Feb 9, 2011 9:11am
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Short entry here at 1.3617 as a re-entry. However, it might turn out to be near the top of leg2 of a nice large WAVE down. No SL (will add if it goes higher in US session). No TP yet.
EU:

Added during this swing high at 1.3708 to existing short trade. New EP Average is 1.3545, so still a ways to drop before profit.
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  • #17,409
  • Edited 9:32am Feb 9, 2011 9:17am | Edited 9:32am
UJ (And all Dollar Pairs):

I hope all Sonicers can see what the PPMs are doing. This is a very clear example, and a repeat of last Friday's PPM manipulation and yesterday's PPM manipulation.

They have torpedoed the price, and are now heavily buying. Other dollar pairs are being similarly manipulated.

WARNING: Speculation!
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  • #17,410
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:19am Feb 9, 2011 9:19am
Quoting traderathome
UJ (And all Dollar Pairs):

I hope all Sonicers can see what the PPMs are doing. This is a very clear example, and a repeat of last Friday's PPM manipulation and yesterday's PPM manipulation.

They have torpedoed the price, and are now heavily buying. Other dollar pairs are being similarly manipulated.

WARNING: Speculation!
I agree with ya on that..
The UJ seems to find it's support..

Sonic
  • #17,411
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:28am Feb 9, 2011 9:28am
Quoting traderathome
EJ:

PA dropped into the EP area on the London open. Looks like it will spend time consolidating in a range there. So the questions are, will the US traders be the catalyst for a break down? And, will they first drive the price up?

Already in this short and waiting for PA to come back down, I decided to venture another trade short, with generous SL and more TPs below what is shown in the H1 picture.
Added at 112.84 during this swing high to existing short trade. EP Average is now 111.21.
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  • #17,412
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:49am Feb 9, 2011 9:49am
EJ:

I know the PPMs are almost psychotic about hitting whole numbers, and frequently adding an extra 10 pips or so if not too many short orders are up there already competing to be executed.

So, I put in a sell order just above the whole number, and it was just executed. This adds again to my short trade. The new EP Average is now 111.44.
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  • #17,413
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:59am Feb 9, 2011 9:59am
Quoting traderathome
I have added to this short trade at 1.0126, at the top of the EP zone. The EP Average is now 1.0020, about 100 pips below current PA.
Down~~~~~
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  • #17,414
  • Feb 9, 2011 11:27am Feb 9, 2011 11:27am
Quoting traderathome
EJ:

I know the PPMs are almost psychotic about hitting whole numbers, and frequently adding an extra 10 pips or so if not too many short orders are up there already competing to be executed.

So, I put in a sell order just above the whole number, and it was just executed. This adds again to my short trade. The new EP Average is now 111.44.
I followed your trades TAH and wonder how much money you should have to fight against trends in so many pairs.... I, personally use about 5% of my margin in each trade and if I would do so many addons against trends so many times I would have gotten margin call already...
  • #17,415
  • Feb 9, 2011 11:50am Feb 9, 2011 11:50am
Comment on Market:

PA seems to have gone dormant again. The USD High Impact event (Bernanke) is past, and the before and after PA gyrations have become "nothingness" now. It is like the firecracker that just fizzled!

Well, not altogether. PA left some clues as to Big Money intent. Anit-dollar moves, both before and after the event, never resulted in strong runs. They were, it seems, manipulations to better pricing for acquisition of positions ahead of pro-dollar moves yet to come. But, as far as actual progress for the day.........zip.

So, we wait some more.
  • #17,416
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:13pm Feb 9, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting noobguy
Hi Nando, i have a pending sell order at the 38% level also but,
Can you tell me why you have an retrace level of 79% did you add that manually?

noticed there was a pinbar at that level.


Down 90 pips at the moment(demo of course)
EP = 1.36412


Was wondering if i didn't follow sonic rules?
still trying to learn guys thanks.
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  • #17,417
  • Edited 4:45pm Feb 9, 2011 4:34pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting sali
I followed your trades TAH and wonder how much money you should have to fight against trends in so many pairs.... I, personally use about 5% of my margin in each trade and if I would do so many addons against trends so many times I would have gotten margin call already...
If indeed you have followed those trades from the beginning, and others like them before, you know I have made it a point that I trade very light relative to account size. It is the only way I know of that enables any retail trader to manage in that manner, a manner I am sure used by the profs, too. They just have more money!

You know the expression. It is ok for a retail trader to be wrong.....and hold a trade. Just so long as they realize the professionals can be wrong and hold a trade, also. It is just that the professionals can be wrong longer!

I waited quite a while before making these current additions, since the last. I am trying to not push my luck. I have five trades running. Only two are old and with multiple adds. The other three were "singles" until today, when I added (again, small) to AU, which now makes it a two-part trade. Of the other two, one is in profit and the other is nearly so. I am really not in that bad of shape. But, I have not made many new trades recently, which you should also have noticed.....again, because I do not want to push my luck.
  • #17,418
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:23pm Feb 9, 2011 6:23pm
Quoting lirongguang
TAH. Is that right?My eurusd hit my sl
And excuse me, why are you using the " " icon ?! This business is about probablities. You lose sometimes ..

Regards,
BAsber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #17,419
  • Edited 7:05pm Feb 9, 2011 6:46pm | Edited 7:05pm
A Lesson In PPM Strategies:

Attached is the AUDUSD M1 chart. Bring your attention to the first black long candle down and the following even longer gray candle up. Do you know what happened? Why it happened?

The black candle traversed almost 25 pips in that M1 TF. Actually, it dropped its full distance in just the first few ticks! What were the PPMs doing? They were making sure that traders that had set Sell Limit orders just below the previous PA low, got their orders executed! Why? Look at the longer gray candle that followed. The PPMs figured that people that pre-set Sell Limit orders, also use a Stop Loss! So, after making sure those traders got into the trade, they reversed PA and took them out of the trade by hitting those SLs! Why? This created additional liquidity for the market by taking money away from those traders. In turn, this increased market liquidity enabled the PPMs to get some of THEIR OWN SHORT ORDERS FILLED in the same price area, without having to go lower in price to get them filled......!!!!!!!

Aren't those PPMs really nice folks?

And, it makes you wonder at all the stuff written like "Ten Reasons Traders Lose", which lists "failure to use a SL" as one of the reasons!

A lot of the crap that is out there, that we are supposed to think is there to help us, is really there to help "them"!
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  • #17,420
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:26pm Feb 9, 2011 7:26pm
UJ:

Normally we should bypass the asian session for SonicR trading. But maybe not today, or for the rest of the week....until some of the expected breakouts occur. This pair is itching for a breakout. But so far, while there have been obvious low grabs for longs followed by moves up, the moves up have so far been stifled and retraced. In other words, the PPMs are loading up on the long side, but are so far refusing to initiate the run that will make it all so profitable!

It could happen at any time. The longer it does not happen, the more so! And since this a yen pair, all the more reason to take note during the asian session.

We have the WAVE. The Dragon is up. PA is above the Trend. And PA is in the EP zone (from a few pips beyond the end of the candle that exits the Dragon, to no more than 20 pips beyond the Dragon boundary). If things turn out "normal" any asian session move will be inconsequential to what will follow thru the London session. But you never know.

And things being what they are....an impending breakout long overdue.....it is entitled to be a high priority, asian session or not.
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