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  • #382,581
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:21pm Feb 8, 2011 10:21pm
EU 4H bearish Head and Shoulder pattern + weekly bearish pinbar + USDX bullish pinbar on monthly TF, we should see large demand for USD sooner or later.
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  • #382,582
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:21pm Feb 8, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting Traderji
The markets are random and chaotic. I don't think there is any scientific credence to indicators/analysis like Murrey Math / Fibo scales.

Why they sometimes work is because most people have them on their charts so it becomes like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is a theorem of sociology which states - "If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences."

There is no Maths, its just a common illusion.


Price action is the only way to go IMHO.
Kinda stuck in that circle then huh?

PA is the only way, is a defined situation as real in its consequence....

What I believe is true to me...

And a common illusion is what exactly?

A mixture of philosophy and sociology to define your trading strategy...

We all have a take on stuff, and each tool has its own specific place, sometimes that place is leaving that tool in the box...For those that have a trade plan based with any sort of reasonable success, I believe it probably best to continue on, and work on improving.

Ya like to trade naked, nothing stopping ya...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #382,583
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:24pm Feb 8, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting Magix
Stock trader term, was typically made for some good score on end of topside runs for small caps...
Never was much of an equities guy. First futures, then interest rate derivatives, and finally, risk management when I knew enough of the tricks traders play to be able to catch 'em at it.

Every business has it's vernacular, most of it not usable on a family friendly moderated website.

But that's what I've come to like about this place. Even though the signal/noise ratio is a bit low much of the time, signal there is, and I learn something new every day.
  • #382,584
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:25pm Feb 8, 2011 10:25pm
Maybe common is not the correct word. A shared illusion is a better description.
We're all stories in the end. Just try to make it a good one.
  • #382,585
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:26pm Feb 8, 2011 10:26pm
For those who give a...

Attached Image


...the Expected End...

Next...?
FUBAR...
  • #382,586
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:27pm Feb 8, 2011 10:27pm
Good Morning..
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #382,587
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:27pm Feb 8, 2011 10:27pm
Quoting ak4x
For those who give a...

Attachment

Hours of sleuthing produce the Expected End...

Next...?



Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #382,588
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:33pm Feb 8, 2011 10:33pm
Quoting OldQuant
Never was much of an equities guy. First futures, then interest rate derivatives, and finally, risk management when I knew enough of the tricks traders play to be able to catch 'em at it.
Tricks of the trades...

One of them moments came about to watch the s/r's for the opposing GBP/EUR pairs, most visible on a 1m chart...

Nice to have had the mind to take a quick pick whilst it was in the plays...

The is much to observe, and from many different vantages...

The 1m charts from earlier, showing turns for both when GBP hit resistance...

Anyways...check out the 1m chart from earlier. Price stalled the GBP pairs at daily roll, EUR started to correct at the same time...Tops are the VS JPY, bottoms are the VS USD...

Not that I believe triggering off opposing charts is necessarily the thing to do...If ya happen to be around for it, just an extra opportunity is all....
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #382,589
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:34pm Feb 8, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting Magix
Kinda stuck in that circle then huh?

PA is the only way, is a defined situation as real in its consequence....

What I believe is true to me...

And a common illusion is what exactly?

A mixture of philosophy and sociology to define your trading strategy...

We all have a take on stuff, and each tool has its own specific place, sometimes that place is leaving that tool in the box...For those that have a trade plan based with any sort of reasonable success, I believe it probably best to continue on, and work on improving.

Ya like to trade naked,...

You really need to learn how to compose thoughts into written language. From what I can understand of your post, you seem to have taken offense somehow...

I am NOT ridiculing your use of any indicators or analysis tool. In fact I use them myself for the reason that I stated in my post. They are a shared illusion and therefore self-fulfilling.

I was simply putting forward my reasoning for why they work.
We're all stories in the end. Just try to make it a good one.
  • #382,590
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:35pm Feb 8, 2011 10:35pm
I see euro inching towards previous weekly top 4281 and then taking a big hit south ............

I also see a lot of idiots laughing at this post ........... And I also see bigger idiots quoting this post.....

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/1...9gcqlufxgo.jpg
  • #382,591
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:37pm Feb 8, 2011 10:37pm
goooood morning !
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #382,592
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:39pm Feb 8, 2011 10:39pm
Quoting ts63
EU 4H bearish Head and Shoulder pattern + weekly bearish pinbar + USDX bullish pinbar on monthly TF, we should see large demand for USD sooner or later.
bro comparison should be done on same time frame for good results.

if i say euro is bullish till 2020 because usdx is bearish till 2200 will it hold value ???
  • #382,593
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:40pm Feb 8, 2011 10:40pm
Too late to really say anything intellegent on this, but it's a topic too dear to me to let it go, tired or not. So:

Quoting Traderji
The markets are random and chaotic...
No argument there. Except for two things, which together are one way to explain why we can have positive expectation.

First, the size of stochastic ranges rise faster than sums of independent random variables would predict. Hurst was the first to observe this, way back in the 1940's. This means at some time frames - trending, and, ironically, high freq, there can be positive expectation.

Second, drift ('means') isn't stationary. It reflects information arrival, and that isn't completely random.

Quoting Traderji
Why they sometimes work is because most people have them on their charts so it becomes like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is a theorem of sociology which states ...
Agree again. But add, there's also "social comparison processes" at work in markets. When higher mammals, be they predators, prey, or dominants, face risk and uncertainly, they look to the guys around them to see how they're dealing with it, and do the same.

So, you don't have to believe in it, but it's probably not a bad idea to know the doctrine.
  • #382,594
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:40pm Feb 8, 2011 10:40pm
Morgen

Quoting PhAnTi'
goooood morning !
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #382,595
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:41pm Feb 8, 2011 10:41pm
Quoting Traderji
You really need to learn how to compose thoughts into written language. From what I can understand of your post, you seem to have taken offense somehow...
Not at all...offended that is...

Maybe I am just tired...eyes feeling droopy and almost outa cold sodas...caffeine shakes full on...

Was more saying, that if trading PA is your way, prolly best stick to it...If others find success adding math to their ideas, they prolly best doing that as well..

More along the lines of, to each is their own...

I think I have one of the largest sub lists on extracted posts, believe me, none of what I responded comes close to something that would add to this list...When I get offended, there is little doubt...you will not have to wonder...

Keep on keeping on brother...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #382,596
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:41pm Feb 8, 2011 10:41pm
Quoting PunjabiSher
I see euro inching towards previous weekly top 4281 and then taking a big hit south ............

I also see a lot of idiots laughing at this post ...........

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/1...9gcqlufxgo.jpg
One of them, YOU.
  • #382,597
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:42pm Feb 8, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting Magix
Tricks of the trades...

One of them moments came about to watch the s/r's for the opposing GBP/EUR pairs, most visible on a 1m chart...
what da heck, short em all

u using 4 digit feed with MM ?
how long does it take for you to open an order ?
had a similar account some time ago, took like 3-8 seconds to place an order. damn... price goes to London and back in 8 seconds.
  • #382,598
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:43pm Feb 8, 2011 10:43pm
wonder how China will intervene today refering to gold and usd strength ...

lets c
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #382,599
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:45pm Feb 8, 2011 10:45pm
Quoting prezd
what da heck, short em all

u using 4 digit feed with MM ?
how long does it take for you to open an order ?
No, I use a 4 digit feed for observation...

A 4 dig feed on a 1m chart adds a certain amount of smoothing, where a 5 pip sideways channel can look like massive swings on a 5 dig broker, on a 4 dig, looks like a flat line.

Secondly, I can do the math quicker without that extra digit..figuring out portions of pips pisses me off...

Third, it is a fixed spread broker, so I prefer to use this one for accuracy on marking daily roll..
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #382,600
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:46pm Feb 8, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
wonder how China will intervene today refering to gold and usd strength ...

lets c
euro dropped only during chinese new year holidays, before that there were reports of large chunk sovereign chinese bank buying.
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