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Attachments: Nb 1.0 trend trade system
Exit Attachments

Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #841
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:37am Jan 31, 2011 8:37am
I always try to exit on the 4 hour middle tma line
  • #842
  • Jan 31, 2011 10:19pm Jan 31, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting negima
I always try to exit on the 4 hour middle tma line
I try to get 20 pips for each trade, 100 cents make 1$.
  • #843
  • Jan 31, 2011 10:27pm Jan 31, 2011 10:27pm
Quoting Free99
Hi all,

finally after a month of absence I am back . Amazing how the thread has grown over just a month ^^

currently I am struggling with registration and certification issues regarding a micro account at IBFX Australia...
in the meantime I am testing on a demo account and it works quite well.
My biggest problem is the exit. Does anyone have a strategy for taking profit ?

regards Free
Try Go Markets Australia - they have been great with me. Been with them for a year.

As for exits ... iv only been using this system for a couple of weeks ... still bugging me. I kinda of trade in the indicator channel...seems to be quite accurate.
  • #844
  • Feb 2, 2011 5:34am Feb 2, 2011 5:34am
nanningbob: is it possible to have "Alert on TMA bands price penetrated" UP od DOWN when it actually happened?

explanation:
this alert is triggered on new candle. analyzing data from this Trading System it is a very good position to place an order indicating trend is changing

thx
Forex can only be understood backwards, but it must be traded forwards.
  • #845
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:54pm Feb 2, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting prozor7
nanningbob: is it possible to have "Alert on TMA bands price penetrated" UP od DOWN when it actually happened?

explanation:
this alert is triggered on new candle. analyzing data from this Trading System it is a very good position to place an order indicating trend is changing

thx
nanningbob:WHERE YOU ARE?
  • #846
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:53pm Feb 2, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting chiche
nanningbob:WHERE YOU ARE?
He went on holidays to the US.
  • #847
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:39am Feb 3, 2011 11:39am
Quoting scottik187
Try Go Markets Australia - they have been great with me. Been with them for a year.
Thx for that hint... what do you need to do to certify yourself?
Do you know if they send you some kind of record for your taxes?
  • #848
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:00pm Feb 3, 2011 6:00pm
Quoting chiche
nanningbob:WHERE YOU ARE?
I am in San Francisco eating clam chowder in a sourdough bread bowl, seeing my sons and daughters, brother in law, waiting for my Packers to win the Super Bowl, gonna watch the Magic Heat game now, etc etc. I wont be trading again until late next week. I thought I would trade this week but my sons job is very flexible and we are going out every day. So the guys who understand my systems are doing a great job answering questions. After working 2 fulltime jobs for 4 months I am enjoying doing absolutely nothing.
  • #849
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:41pm Feb 3, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting nanningbob
I am in San Francisco eating clam chowder in a sourdough bread bowl,... After working 2 fulltime jobs for 4 months I am enjoying doing absolutely nothing.
Well deserved rest. You forgot to add your valuable and time consuming work here FF. ENJOY Yourself and best wishes..

Kind regards
  • #850
  • Feb 7, 2011 7:31pm Feb 7, 2011 7:31pm
I ran these tests mostly to check out the difference in take profit strategies.

In cases where price pierced the 8 and came back in one bar, I made a decision about whether to enter the trade at the close of the bar, instead of assuming that I could get into the trade at the intra-bar cross.

Stop loss at previous swing high/low, with minimum stop loss of 15. Stop moved to BE +10 when unrealized profit in trade was the same as the original stop.

Take Profit 1: 100 pips, or when bar closes inside the 8.
Take Profit 2: After BE is set, first bar to close inside the 8.

Results:

244 Trades

TP1
92 Winners - 37%
55 Break Even -23%
97 Losers - 40%

Average Trade - 19.2 pips
Expectancy - .38
Largest Drawdown - 12%

Return on $10,000 assuming 2% risk/trade and 4 pip spread = $34,053

TP2
71 Winners - 29%
75 Break Even - 31%
98 Losers - 40%

Average Trade 29 pips
Expectancy -.59

Largest Drawdown - 20%

Return on$10,000 assuming 2% risk/trade and 4 pip spread - $72,066

A few observations: This pair seems more susceptible to drawdowns than the others I have tested, and overall is not as profitable.

In general, this system seems to do best in times with really big volatility. The biggest moves in each of my tests came in 2008. Here, there was one trade that netted over 1700 pips (giving over 50% growth in one trade).

The lower take profit method doesn't return as well, but also appears to be less risky. Which method a person decides to use could ultimately be a matter of preference. One alternative would be to split trades, taking off some at +100, and letting the rest ride.

I'm attaching a graph of the equity curves. Look at how jagged and "toothy" the higher yielding one is. Then again, look at the nearly 60 trade stretch starting just after 141, where the TP1 method stays basically flat and even gradually loses some. (60 trades is something like 8-10 months, and I don't know how many people would be willing to ride a flat system for that long.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #851
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:37am Feb 9, 2011 9:37am
Quoting duffypratt
I ran these tests mostly to check out the difference in take profit strategies.

In cases where price pierced the 8 and came back in one bar, I made a decision about whether to enter the trade at the close of the bar, instead of assuming that I could get into the trade at the intra-bar cross.
I know I first mentioned trading the "pierce" of the 8MA, and last week tried to trade a definite Close above/below the 8 before entering on a cross and I ended up with way more losses than wins. All the setups that looked good to me seemed to die and reverse and the ones that looked risky seemed to take off. Of course, this could just be what I'm starting to think of as "fantasy hindsight", where it looks like I should be filthy rich but when I try to trade real time, it just doesn't work out that way.

I haven't even taken any trades this week, just trying to figure out what works and what doesn't, especially with my sleep schedule. It also seems that quite a few currencies seem to take off on a trend and never give an adequate pullback for entry until it has reached exhaustion, and then it's too late.

Have you tried your testing strategy in real time? Curious to see if it works as good live.
  • #852
  • Feb 12, 2011 2:57am Feb 12, 2011 2:57am
I have tried all kinds of trading systems found on the internet but nothing has come close to this one in terms of profitability and win/loss ratio.

However, I did modify this system a little to make it even more profitable with extremely high win/loss ratio.
* all the losses happened during ranging market with sloppy tp/sl.

I'm gonna open a live account next week with very risky money management and see where my account goes. (20% risk/trade)

wish me luck!
  • #853
  • Feb 13, 2011 7:54am Feb 13, 2011 7:54am
Hi Timmytim
I hope that 20%/per trade is an error. Please don't risk that high of a % on any trading system. This is NB's site, please wait until he is back before jumping in that strongly. If you have that much faith in his system, do both a favor and private message him about your plan. If I remember correctly he should be getting home this week. I know I'm being nosey but I also noticed you are junior member. Please trade slowly at first.
gmcc
  • #854
  • Feb 13, 2011 10:45am Feb 13, 2011 10:45am
I was hoping to start trading Monday again but a friend from Canada just stop by for a couple of days. I will start Wednesday. When you live in China it is not often someone just drops in so, see you then.
  • #855
  • Feb 13, 2011 11:51am Feb 13, 2011 11:51am
Quoting timmytim
I did modify this system a little to make it even more profitable with extremely high win/loss ratio.
Will you say what you did to modify it? I have gotten extremely excited at changes I made which seemed to work great until I applied them to realtime trading. Would like to know what you have done.
  • #856
  • Feb 13, 2011 1:52pm Feb 13, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting timmytim
I have tried all kinds of trading systems found on the internet but nothing has come close to this one in terms of profitability and win/loss ratio.

However, I did modify this system a little to make it even more profitable with extremely high win/loss ratio.
* all the losses happened during ranging market with sloppy tp/sl.

I'm gonna open a live account next week with very risky money management and see where my account goes. (20% risk/trade)

wish me luck!

what a newb lol hinting at a change but obviously wanting to hide it when NB did a great job to introduce a free system that works. I wouldn't put too much confidence in his post let the market deal with him lol

Jag
  • #857
  • Feb 13, 2011 3:13pm Feb 13, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting sidhujag
NB did a great job to introduce a free system that works.

Jag
Perhaps it's working for you if you can trade the 1H but I can't. Because of where I live, I need to trade the 4H (or even D1 might be an option) unless I can automate it, and Steve's autotrader is still being tested, and Bob ended up taking his vacation just as he started switching to 4H, so waiting to see what he's come up with, because my new ideas aren't working so well.
  • #858
  • Edited 7:17pm Feb 13, 2011 6:44pm | Edited 7:17pm
Quoting ericjschroed
Will you say what you did to modify it? I have gotten extremely excited at changes I made which seemed to work great until I applied them to realtime trading. Would like to know what you have done.
First of all, yes Sid, I am a newbie and still in the process of learning the art of technical analysis.


and dear Mr. Nanningbob, I really really appreciate and commend your selflessness of releasing a great system to the public.
I modified it because, like I said, I am a newbie and needed something even more visual than nb 1.0

Instead of using 5ma 5 shift I use adaptive laguerre filter(alf) and also added 60minute TMA to the chart
Grey line is the 60min TMA and dodgerblue blue line is the adaptive laguerre filter.
Rest is the same as nanningbob's template.
I go long if alf line is below the limegreen line and a bullish candle closes above the alf line but below the limegreen line
I go short in opposite condition
60min TMA is for me to visually see whether the price is truly in an oversold zone or vice versa.
If the price is really close to or above (or below) both TMAs I only go short(or long if its below both TMAs) with larger TP than normal.

Attached chart is just taken today less than an hour ago
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 30 KB
  • #859
  • Feb 13, 2011 7:42pm Feb 13, 2011 7:42pm
One of the reasons I made the chart clean and simple is so people could use whatever they are familiar with in trading. My goal was to define the trend so then you could trade it with confidence. To me that was the missing piece of every trading system that followed the trend. It had no definition. Too many trading gurus say, follow the trend but they dont define what it is and your running around on lower time frames and getting clobbered. My next update which I hope to have done this next weekend will add to my definition of not only what a trend is but also a breakout and range. So with these definitions you then know how to trade that particular market. What I want is for a person to open a chart look at it and know almost immediately that:
1. This is a down/up trend
2. This is a ranging market
3. This is a breakout.

Obviously it wont be 100% fool proof but I hope to increase my trading odds by knowing exactly what I should do in each case. So I have been silent for several weeks now but my brain is still working. I want to test my theories this week and if they work then you can go to any type of trading style, from scalping to long term and have a reasonable chance at success. You can look at the main chart and then decide how you want to trade. This will be my goal since I am off of work this week and can put several hours a day into this project. Love this 4-6 weeks off for Chinese New Year, the US should get something like this. I love it.
  • #860
  • Edited 8:02pm Feb 13, 2011 7:50pm | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting timmytim
First of all, yes Sid, I am a newbie and still in the process of learning the art of technical analysis...
Welcome. We all had to start at some point and we were all newbies at some point in the past (my case just over 3 years ago). My advice is do not rush, guard your capital, do not risk more than 2% of your capital on any one trade and study as much as you can. I wish you all the best and hope you are here in three years time to give the same sort of advice to the newbies who start in 2014.

Kind Regards


Quoting nanningbob
... gurus say, follow the trend but they dont define what it is and your running around on lower time frames and getting clobbered... if they work then you can go to any type of trading style, from scalping to long term and have a reasonable chance at success...
Nice to have you back after a very well deserved holiday. It has been quite here whilst you were away. I have moved up one time frame to daily charts and hope to have some solid news for the thread in a few weeks time. Can not wait to apply your modifications to D1.

Kind regards
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