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  • #381,241
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:57am Feb 7, 2011 11:57am
Quoting OldQuant
IMO, unless there were significant systemic damage to the EZ economies from some external shock, or some political blindside within the Union, there's no way the G7+ or the European sovereigns will let the E/U have a 29 handle any time soon.
Exaktemento ... jawollo ...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2011-02-07_18h59_EURUSD _ min005 _ (1100 x 800) candle volume.PNG (29.2 KB)

And volume as low as during Wellington Session hours ...



;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-02-07_18h59_EURUSD _ min005 _ (1100 x 800) candle volume.PNG Size: 29 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #381,242
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:02pm Feb 7, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting OldQuant
IMO, unless there were significant systemic damage to the EZ economies from some external shock, or some political blindside within the Union, there's no way the G7+ or the European sovereigns will let the E/U have a 29 handle any time soon.
Really?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.jpg Size: 112 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #381,243
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:07pm Feb 7, 2011 12:07pm

Quoting Magix
Really?
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #381,244
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:13pm Feb 7, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting Shah22
long at 3544 with tight sl.. target 3576
out 3562.. neutral now.. will see it again..
  • #381,245
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:15pm Feb 7, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting Magix
Really?
I dunno. That dx trend line looks pretty solid, but there's been a lot of jawboning about not letting the USD get too strong.

I'm no EUR bull, but the Europeans are playing a psychological game with us right now: "great" bond sale results even when the market yields are not so great; Ms. Bruni's husband threatening shorts with certain death, that sort of thing.

And 1.29999 is still a long way south of here...
  • #381,246
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:16pm Feb 7, 2011 12:16pm
aap ka tukka lag he gya

Quoting Shah22
out 3562.. neutral now.. will see it again..
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #381,247
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:20pm Feb 7, 2011 12:20pm
come on baby....come to papa....
  • #381,248
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:22pm Feb 7, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting OldQuant
I dunno. That dx trend line looks pretty solid, but there's been a lot of jawboning about not letting the USD get too strong.

I'm no EUR bull, but the Europeans are playing a psychological game with us right now: "great" bond sale results even when the market yields are not so great; Ms. Bruni's husband threatening shorts with certain death, that sort of thing.

And 1.29999 is still a long way south of here...
I ain't smart enough to figure out the fundamentals OQ...I barely got the wits to even fire up my Meta4, and depending on who ya ask, I have absolutely no idea on how to chart or trade...

Dropping down a line, really doesn't mean anything, but surely something worthy of observation...

I have had a few ideas since market opened last week about where we are heading, and have dropped down a couple charts that kinda look pretty and perhaps are even convincing enough to hold promise, but they don't really mean much either...

Where we are headed and why is all in a state of immediate relativity and given the probabilities of historical exodus on currencies, I gotta say that it ain't really my place to decide what will or will not happen, more to try and follow as it does...



Just saying is all....

Prolly just giddy from not much sleep...And why am I covered in ANTS?????
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #381,249
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:24pm Feb 7, 2011 12:24pm
Hello Friends,

came back home an hour or so ago and looked at the structure of the moves today. This morning, when i had to leave home, I closed a short with 22 pips (3609 to 3587). At Friday I saw us in a correction which should be relatively flat.
This morning I had the impression, that it would likely run up to around 3641 again. So I closed my short and placed sell orders between 3620 and 3660.

Damn it, price eroded and at first sight one was inclined to see/count an impulse. Now I have analyzed the move down on 15min TF. 30min and 60min are good for the impulsive count.

So I have a bad feeling for this to count impulsive. Awesome Oscillator on 5min TF supports an impulsive count.

So what to make out of this:

a) the first bigger wave down might be done, now up in a corretive move, targets are between 3641, 3672 and 3733 (MM)

This count is not only in trouble due to my above mentioned objections, but it is also in trouble regarding the base channel. Look at the blue channel. It is a pitchfork and the 5th would have ended not at the lower boundary but in the middle.

Now take a look at the green channel. This one would support the scenario b) and shows, that the wave blue 4 would have room and time to run further.

Remember the Elliott-Wave rule of alternation. Wave blue 2 was short, swift and a trivial ABC-zigzack, but retraced nearly 62% to the pip.

So we would like to see a wave blue 4 which runs longer, complex and not much retracing.

This all leads to scenario b):

b) the move up from Friday to this mornings high is wave A, down to todays low wave B of a complex WXY-flat correction. The move up could then be the Y wave This flat correction would be a wave 4


Scenario b can be seen as invalidated with a move above 3767, but a move above 3677 would also weaken this case immensely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 02072011 1h evening main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #381,250
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:24pm Feb 7, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
i have 2 pips higher then i wanted. i wanted below 35611
look for a candle at/about 3581..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #381,251
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:28pm Feb 7, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
look for a candle at/about 3581..
Expecting that, this hour?

May I ask why? Why would it break trough 1.3572.
  • #381,252
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:29pm Feb 7, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
look for a candle at/about 3581..
Let's see if the algos can supply us with a vapor ramp job to get us there...
  • #381,253
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:30pm Feb 7, 2011 12:30pm
5M is up , 15M up and 30M is also up but hourly showing some down but need a correction too.. 5M resistances are now at 3573, 3581 and 3592 while the supports below are at 3548, 3540 and 3531.. i m going to put the sell limit at 3592 with 18 pips sl.. target 3552.. and if it come down first then i will buy it at 3531 with 18 pips sl and target will be 3573.. thats my plan till frankie open by tomorrow..

See you all tomorrow
  • #381,254
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:30pm Feb 7, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting Magix
I ain't smart enough to figure out the fundamentals...
That's sort of my point; the fundamentals aren't driving this train right now; the best thing the authorities can do is keep the sh1t scared out of everybody, and keep their powder dry in case they really need it.

Quoting Magix
gotta say that it ain't really my place to decide what will or will not happen, more to try and follow as it does...
Plus one to that. And, knock wood, that's something we can all take to the bank.
  • #381,255
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:32pm Feb 7, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
look for a candle at/about 3581..
say gator, which TF is 3581 off of? thnks..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #381,256
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:33pm Feb 7, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting Sunsi
Expecting that, this hour?

May I ask why? Why would it break trough 1.3572.
Another excellent question...To which I will answer with words vs dropping down a couple charts...

The movements since the open of NY session haven't just been about the strengths and weakness of the Euro vs the USD but also the strength of Euro vs GBP and GBP vs USD...

Get ready to cross your eyes, cuz without a visual, my description will prolly confuse the hell outa ya...

Where Cable has refused to close an hourly candle below daily roll over, Fiber has refused to close above. We have been ping ponging USD strength from cable support to fiber resistance...

Throw a 5m chart of these 2 kids up and drop a 200EMA on them...Both sitting right at the line...

Now if ya can, go back and mark the price at 5pm EST yesterday on both...

You might just get an idea of what I am talking about...

And if you do...could you explain it to me, I think I lost my point in the middle of this thought....



Anyways, at some point, something gotta give...might just be the vein protruding from my forehead...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #381,257
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:34pm Feb 7, 2011 12:34pm
Looks like an inverted H&S on m15.
so technicaly it should build to at least 3583.

still i don;t think we got the volume for that.
  • #381,258
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:37pm Feb 7, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
3581 trade your bias. up or down
Y? its resistance now. bulls will try to close above.. bears will not like that idea... they should be digging in. 3561 is a minor s/r level..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #381,259
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:38pm Feb 7, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
say gator, which TF is 3581 off of? thnks..
daily/weekly
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #381,260
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:40pm Feb 7, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting Magix
Another excellent question...To which I will answer with words vs dropping down a couple charts...

The movements since the open of NY session haven't just been about the strengths and weakness of the Euro vs the USD but also the strength of Euro vs GBP and GBP vs USD...

Get ready to cross your eyes, cuz without a visual, my description will prolly confuse the hell outa ya...

Where Cable has refused to close an hourly candle below daily roll over, Fiber has refused to close above....
I wish I could but sometimes you just don't know what the hell is going on.
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