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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,201
  • Feb 4, 2011 6:33am Feb 4, 2011 6:33am
Quoting USD-Bear
Why should they Warwick?
Just a few observations, as far as subtle divergences within equity markets and carry trade positioning levels are concerned. Current levels does not seem sustainable given market positioning, something has to break.... Of course I could be wrong - With Kampo possibly behind the wheel of U/J Id much rather buy at a lower level than short at any.
  • #22,202
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:38am Feb 4, 2011 7:38am
Quoting Warwick
Just a few observations, as far as subtle divergences within equity markets and carry trade positioning levels are concerned. Current levels does not seem sustainable given market positioning, something has to break.... Of course I could be wrong - With Kampo possibly behind the wheel of U/J Id much rather buy at a lower level than short at any.
With you last remark I fully agree.
What the others concerned, You seem very well informed. Please keep posting the details if You will?

ps, strange the spike did not kill my stops:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0030.png Size: 22 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,203
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:49am Feb 4, 2011 8:49am
The upward spike was just big enough to gimme my 30 pips.
Feels good to go into weekend with no open positions and a larger account for the week

Cheers,
  • #22,204
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:53am Feb 4, 2011 8:53am
Quoting pipoxy
The upward spike was just big enough to gimme my 30 pips.
Feels good to go into weekend with no open positions and a larger account for the week

Cheers,
still eager to get more
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,205
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:59am Feb 4, 2011 8:59am
where UJ stop today??????? help
  • #22,206
  • Feb 4, 2011 10:00am Feb 4, 2011 10:00am
Quoting nazmien_
where UJ stop today??????? help
My limit 82.10 i hope, but not sure
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,207
  • Feb 4, 2011 10:45am Feb 4, 2011 10:45am
Quoting USD-Bear
added a long @ 81.445 and placed stop @ average BE=81.386 to make things little more exciting

H1:
Attachment
Closed longs @ 81.98

M15:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0031.png Size: 38 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,208
  • Feb 4, 2011 11:56am Feb 4, 2011 11:56am
This is really remarkable, move from 82 to 82.40 is purely based on Yen weakness and no USD-strength, well we see next Monday how things develop.

Wish all a nice weekend!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,209
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:44pm Feb 4, 2011 1:44pm
Quoting USD-Bear
With you last remark I fully agree.
What the others concerned, You seem very well informed. Please keep posting the details if You will?

ps, strange the spike did not kill my stops:
Attachment
Sheesh was I wrong on my carry trade analysis - we'll see what next week brings. Although I still expect the related crosses to falter. Im itching to short them, but for me to buy the yen when Kanato want's to sell it to the moon is unnerving - I enjoy a good risk play but to buy Jpy is too much for me.

Hopefully you didn't get stopped out on that downwards spike, if not then you should be a happy camper today.
  • #22,210
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:58pm Feb 4, 2011 2:58pm
Quoting Warwick
Sheesh was I wrong on my carry trade analysis - we'll see what next week brings. Although I still expect the related crosses to falter. Im itching to short them, but for me to buy the yen when Kanato want's to sell it to the moon is unnerving - I enjoy a good risk play but to buy Jpy is too much for me.

Hopefully you didn't get stopped out on that downwards spike, if not then you should be a happy camper today.
No very strange, the downward spike went way below my stops, but positions were not sold (FXCM). I really do not understand but I'm very happy. Sold my longs around 82 which was a great trade.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,211
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:09pm Feb 4, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting USD-Bear
No very strange, the downward spike went way below my stops, but positions were not sold (FXCM). I really do not understand but I'm very happy. Sold my longs around 82 which was a great trade.....
You are lucky they didnt execute your SL @ 80.80!!!

FXCM is nasty for not executing orders during NFP - Before and After.

Last time I had a position at FXCM during NFP was in 2007. I had a BUYSTOP ORDER which price was HIT 5~15 minutes BEFORE NFP and was executed only 2~3 minutes AFTER NFP and of course with a huge SLIPPAGE to my disadvantage.

I wrote to them and they told me its all about fast market condition..

WTF it was 5~15 minutes BEFORE FAST MARKET CONDITION!

Simply said, FXCM has a HUGE GRUDGE against NFP and traders during NFP.
  • #22,212
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:13pm Feb 4, 2011 4:13pm
Quoting USD-Bear
This is really remarkable, move from 82 to 82.40 is purely based on Yen weakness and no USD-strength, well we see next Monday how things develop.

Wish all a nice weekend!
82.40, eh? Makes me wish i set my TP a lil higher.

But then again, one shouldn't try to bite more than one can chew.
You set the target, you hit the target, you sit at home drinking beer
and chuckling contently. Next week will bring new scenarios and opportunities.

Have a nice weekend too, Bear
  • #22,213
  • Feb 6, 2011 7:44am Feb 6, 2011 7:44am
Same here...had a stop at 81.23 and did not get stopped out on FXCM. Sold at 82.35...

Quoting USD-Bear
No very strange, the downward spike went way below my stops, but positions were not sold (FXCM). I really do not understand but I'm very happy. Sold my longs around 82 which was a great trade.....
  • #22,214
  • Feb 6, 2011 7:50am Feb 6, 2011 7:50am
The 10 YR Treasury Yields chart below is a huge factor in what happens with the Yen Crosses. Note that each time the 10 YR TR Yields topped so did the USDJPY and each time it maked new lows even if the 10 YR did not make new lows. The 10 YR may be topped again or very close to it and that is bad news for all Yen crosses.

The notes on the 10 YR TR Yields are referring to the stock market as well..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 02-06-2010 USDJPY 1wk.png Size: 47 KB
  • #22,215
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:10pm Feb 6, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting realjumper
I want to see it break out of this wedgie looking thingee!!! Once that happens, I might start to believe that this pa has direction, and not just wandering around aimlessly!
.....
Still stuck in this wedgie.....no trades here for me yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,216
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:56pm Feb 6, 2011 8:56pm
good day trader...

i've been doing some research and almost all of them say that JPY will finally bullish! time for going long?

i hope so...

http://img808.imageshack.us/img808/4310/7febjpy.jpg

My Stoch still going UP
after it hit the overbought area, then my MA will be hit

and it's going to be a LONG way for JPY

Since there are no important US news this week, hope the technical analysis taking the lead

*and peace on Egypt too - finger crossed*

Happy Trading!
  • #22,217
  • Feb 7, 2011 12:58am Feb 7, 2011 12:58am
Quoting japhar
good day trader...

i've been doing some research and almost all of them say that JPY will finally bullish! time for going long?

i hope so...

Happy Trading!
Good morning, so you see UJ falling?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,218
  • Feb 7, 2011 8:50pm Feb 7, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Good morning, so you see UJ falling?
Indeed, I said it's going to be LONG position for UJ... (fundamentally)

But the market will decide, whether is it going to up or down...

*finger cross for UJ failing*
  • #22,219
  • Feb 7, 2011 9:57pm Feb 7, 2011 9:57pm
Quoting japhar
Indeed, I said it's going to be LONG position for UJ... (fundamentally)

But the market will decide, whether is it going to up or down...

*finger cross for UJ failing*
Just a reminder: It is almost time for Japan's annual corporate repatriation (now till spring). And when they do, JPY strengthens.
  • #22,220
  • Feb 8, 2011 3:33pm Feb 8, 2011 3:33pm
Huge support at round number @ 82.00. And minor resistance since last friday @ 82.45.
Be careful, pair is trying to break daily downtrend line (see daily chart).
Sell limit @ resistance.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_czHHJ2CtEr.../usdjpy_d4.png

Regards,
suirad
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