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  • #380,301
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:17pm Feb 5, 2011 6:17pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
I'm saying that if there were only 8% USD bulls left on Thursday a m, they pushed the rest of the world around.

The herd mentality was the 92% short on the buck.

In terms of monetary value, this is not an evenly distributed game.



Hi Bruce Flea,

bad logic, try it the other way around. The USD bears pushed the rest of the world around in the stampede to rush out of USD shorts. Called change in social mood........

Such a change, btw. does not need an extrinsic factor.

The 8% is the obvious small amount of traders which are right most of the time.
  • #380,302
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:21pm Feb 5, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
8% bulls in ff ? that means for sure we go to 1.5...lol

a weekly doji after nfp ... how convenient..mmmm... by the time the sellers realize they been conned .. to late 40 % of account gone

Caution is required if eu break 1.3640 to top side... next stop 1.4250
Looks more like a shooting star than a doji to me
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  • #380,303
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:27pm Feb 5, 2011 6:27pm
yep vsa does not work worth shit...

tried the 133 ma crossing the 10 ma on a 3 min por was it a 3hour .. or was it a 155 ema or a 300 sma ? that was even worse

lol

Quoting Magix


More like...VSA says long...I am kewl holding my shorts!

Get a real chart Mal...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #380,304
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:27pm Feb 5, 2011 6:27pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
Think about that.

82% bulls, and it falls like a stone.

8% bulls, and it moves up.

Seeing something about the drovers, and not the herd here?


Oh man,

bad logic part II??? :-)

When everyone and his dog (82%) bought USD and drove the price up, who is left buying? What will the herd do, when there are not enough buyers to sustain those elevated levels? They start selling by recognizing that prices will not move up (by price and by velocity) like they dreamed about.
  • #380,305
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:30pm Feb 5, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting realjumper
Looks more like a shooting star than a doji to me
I wouldn't be committing a whole lotta time to paying attention to Mal's previous post...

Without a chart or explanation, it would seem about the same as any and all newbie rant that plagues the house...

A failure to respond and a "Poof", Houdiniesque maneuver, is a typical mal motion...Ya know...show up to call everybody a loser and then edit/delete posts as the market changes...

It gets kind of old after a while...

But hey, he will always be the, "Milky Bar "VSA all the way" lifer, unless hulls moving averages disagree" Guy...

Atta go Mal, why would a Zebra change its stripes....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #380,306
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:36pm Feb 5, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting infinitus
Oh man,

bad logic part II??? :-)

When everyone and his dog (82%) bought USD and drove the price up, who is left buying? What will the herd do, when there are not enough buyers to sustain those elevated levels? They start selling by recognizing that prices will not move up (by price and by velocity) like they dreamed about.
My logic is not faulty I assure you

You're quite obviously not seeing my point...

The majority in this market is not the percentage that moves it.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #380,307
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:37pm Feb 5, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yep vsa does not work worth shit...

tried the 133 ma crossing the 10 ma on a 3 min por was it a 3hour .. or was it a 155 ema or a 300 sma ? that was even worse

lol
Ruh roh....

Somebody got their panties in a twist...



Save your energy for markets mal...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #380,308
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:49pm Feb 5, 2011 6:49pm
Quoting jaylovin
yes this is why i don't read market sentiments.... big players probably throw more on crack and ho's than us retailers collectively do in the market. charts will tell us which what they are doing - not sentiment... and if it isn't clear - stay out.
Hi Jaylovin,

I would not so much look at the sentiment data offered by Dukascopy, FXCM, Oanda or others. That is irrelevant to the biggest part.

The COT Data is the best source regarding volume we Forex people can get. It is based on Futures. Well, that is not exactly that what we would like to see, but better than nothing.

Read about COT here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commitment_of_traders

COT data are most useful for longer term trend, since these data is only published once a week.

The interesting participants are the commercials (they do currency trading for the main purpose of hedging) and the large specs. Within the large specs you can await herd mentality. Since the speculate, you can conclude, that 90% of them are wrong most of the time.

I would not recommend to trade COT or other sentiment data on its own, but in combination with EW or other methods you get a good picture.

But, on the other hand: if you, like now, have only 8% USD bulls left (number may have grown a bit at Friday) it seems to be a sure bet (sooner or later).
  • #380,309
  • Edited 7:10pm Feb 5, 2011 6:49pm | Edited 7:10pm
hunch

in fact according to weekly i am pretty bullish overall and believe that we may even see 1.5 based on symmetry of moves.

I really want to see another down move into 1.33 area and see how the weekly plays out when and if this happens.


I have this odd feeling that the down move Thursday of 200 pip and the small range day friday were just a wave down ... oil was almost certainly a shake out as now on the weekend we have ' gas line leak explosion in Egypt' the 2% drop in oil on the shake out would be enough to make eu weekly look the way it does. I am ab uyers of oil back above 90 next week for another nice 400 pip week

as for 1.3640 ... the 2nd chart shows that 20 pip above that ultra high volume bar .

Look at the daily .. all the move was Thurs on massive vol , friday hardly any move at all on very high vol as well...buyers

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Quoting jaylovin
hi Malc,

May I ask how you come to the conclusion that a break of 1.3640 will give us 1.4250? I see 1.4250 is close to the weekly upper TL. but there are many many barriers in front..

After the daily and weekly candle close - i would rather put my money on shorts... the selling wasn't the doing of small timers... it was the big sharks - i believe they are gonna push for a 1000 pips before thinking of taking profit... i would like to see 1.30 in the next month or so...
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  • #380,310
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:52pm Feb 5, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
My logic is not faulty I assure you

You're quite obviously not seeing my point...

The majority in this market is not the percentage that moves it.


Like I said:

You imply that sentiment data was acquired by selectively sparing out the deep pockets..........

Good luck with this kind of logic. But everyone is entitled to his own thinking.


Best to you,

Markus
  • #380,311
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:57pm Feb 5, 2011 6:57pm
Quoting infinitus

You imply that sentiment data was acquired by selectively sparing out the deep pockets..........

Not at all.

I am implying the deep pockets are the small percentage buying recently when 92% of the market was still selling.

They are few with many dollars, while the many with few dollars constantly get in too late.

Herd mentality.

No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #380,312
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:00pm Feb 5, 2011 7:00pm
holly shmooly mal and wise man in za house
  • #380,313
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:09pm Feb 5, 2011 7:09pm
Cool thanks for the link... my assumption was COT reports were broker to broker... Appreciate the link and will read up on it...

Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,

I would not so much look at the sentiment data offered by Dukascopy, FXCM, Oanda or others. That is irrelevant to the biggest part.

The COT Data is the best source regarding volume we Forex people can get. It is based on Futures. Well, that is not exactly that what we would like to see, but better than nothing.

Read about COT here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commitment_of_traders

COT data are most useful for longer term trend, since these data is only published once a week.

The interesting participants are the...
  • #380,314
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:11pm Feb 5, 2011 7:11pm
salam hi all

no prediction but would like to see a close below ema200 on weekly

13540 is the line in the sand , ema200 daily in sight, might be wrong lets see , still the pipe is out enjoy the smoke
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  • #380,315
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:11pm Feb 5, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting kill56
holly shmooly mal and wise man in za house
Killer, we just burning a couple mins on the weekend...

What better way to stimulate some serious chat?

A couple old grinders hammering heads...

Ya gotta know if we come to odds, shit is pretty serious...

All respect for Mal...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #380,316
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:15pm Feb 5, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting Magix
Killer, we just burning a couple mins on the weekend...

What better way to stimulate some serious chat?

A couple old grinders hammering heads...

Ya gotta know if we come to odds, shit is pretty serious...

All respect for Mal...


same shit here its 3:10am in here need some coffee to sleep ,

Mal is the man love see both of u in the house
  • #380,317
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:21pm Feb 5, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting kill56
same shit here its 3:10am in here need some coffee to sleep ,

Mal is the man love see both of u in the house
Two sides of the same team....

"Tastes great"

"Less filling"

As long as the beer gets drank, don't matter how you see things...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #380,318
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:28pm Feb 5, 2011 7:28pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Bruce Flea,
The 8% is the obvious small amount of traders which are right most of the time.
Noteworthy info:

As part of the new CFTC rules, retail forex brokers must publish every quarter the percentage of customer accounts that were profitable.

At Oanda, 48% of the customer accounts were profitable in the third quarter and 44% in the forth quarter of last year, which is by far the highest proportion of profitable accounts of any US retail forex dealer.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #380,319
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:52pm Feb 5, 2011 7:52pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Noteworthy info:

As part of the new CFTC rules, retail forex brokers must publish every quarter the percentage of customer accounts that were profitable.

At Oanda, 48% of the customer accounts were profitable in the third quarter and 44% in the forth quarter of last year, which is by far the highest proportion of profitable accounts of any US retail forex dealer.

Shamu
hehe, that's because they exclude you from trading news by disconnecting the accounts.

just kidding, the situation has improved significantly lately. They introduced, or are about to introduce mt4 as an additional platform and thus have invested in hardware as well... probably rented another celeron-server *lmao*
  • #380,320
  • Feb 5, 2011 7:53pm Feb 5, 2011 7:53pm
looking at the history of euro weekly chart, mal does have a valid point, imho.
the chart is just an example of how the top has been formed with this particular pair.

however, a shampoo pattern in daily can't be ignored, thought imo h&s topping formation is rare with euro.

one may decide whether to play the shampoo on daily when price tops ar'd right shoulder 1.37-1.375 area just down to the neck line, a good r:r i think.

if neckline gets taken out, 1.345 - 1.33 support (also 50 ma daily) should be a good play to look for rejection.

just my 2c. hope everyone plans the trade accordingly, and let the market show us the direction next week. gl all.
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