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  • #380,281
  • Feb 5, 2011 3:11pm Feb 5, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting jaylovin
charts on daily, weekly, even the lower TF's are all pointing down... there is a struggle to climb atm... Two sources of elliott wave count say this could be the 3 wave in all degrees so the drop is gonna be hard.... and i mean real HARD. Possibly more extreme than we've seen in the past year... this is all speculative till we see it but I am selling this puppy till at least 1.34... if 1.34 breaks hard - hello 1.30.

will post charts of my analysis later on today... meanwhile AU is a downer too towards 1.0070.

Hi Jaylovin,

good to see one more here with EW knowledge :-)

Doing EW it is important to also watch sentiment level. Per Thursday we had only 7% USD bulls left. End of November there were 82% bulls. Look what happened since then.

Also worth to look at COT data http://www.wellenreiter-invest.de/Co...coms.price.htm<

Look what the large specs did last weeks. They abandoned their short positions with rising prices.

Maybe the first minor 5 wave move down found its end on Friday. I think in this case we might get only a relatively flat correction. So far the upmove looks less impulsive for a bigger A wave up. Like to say "lame".

We will see Sunday/Monday.

Best to you,

Markus
  • #380,282
  • Feb 5, 2011 3:34pm Feb 5, 2011 3:34pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the herd is always coming way too late to the party, thanks to psychology of the masses we know that they will most likely act alltogether. i would more than sh't my pants to think of shorting after such an occurence since behind the curtain big traders have to buy such moves since they do not trade microlots as the most in here as soon as eur "sells off" everybody screams for 1.30 and lower. there is no coincidence in sending you totally biased into the weekend, the more you are, the harder the rally will be. we won't top on bad news out of...
Yeah, entertaining too that you think about 1.40 since there where only 8% USD bulls left on Thursday. Do you believe that those conditions are already worked off? Curious........
  • #380,283
  • Feb 5, 2011 3:57pm Feb 5, 2011 3:57pm
Quoting fontu
Welcome , yes good to learn that never ends .



fontu
Hi Fontu,

I am in your camp :-)

I pitchforked a little bit. We excactly stopped at the lower boundary of an uptrend pitchfork. This area is at the same time 38.2% retracement of the latest uptrend on a fib-fan.

Now testing both from the lower side.

In the accelerated pitchfork channel (to the downside) price is now testing the upper trendline of it.

Have a nice Sunday,

Markus
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  • #380,284
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:10pm Feb 5, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting infinitus
Yeah, entertaining too that you think about 1.40 since there where only 8% USD bulls left on Thursday. Do you believe that those conditions are already worked off? Curious........
The only numbers that matter, are how much that left over 8% has in their accounts.

If the players are big enough, they'll move the other 92% wherever they see fit...
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #380,285
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:19pm Feb 5, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the herd is always coming way too late to the party, thanks to psychology of the masses we know that they will most likely act alltogether. i would more than sh't my pants to think of shorting after such an occurence since behind the curtain big traders have to buy such moves since they do not trade microlots as the most in here as soon as eur "sells off" everybody screams for 1.30 and lower. there is no coincidence in sending you totally biased into the weekend, the more you are, the harder the rally will be. we won't top on bad news out of...
Very good you got the basics,and it seems your one of the herd now why?
because last two weeks euro was rising and majority was short,and the rally was for 1000pips until now,and it would rise even more now,because as shorts got blown out every day,people started thinking other direction,and here game starts all over again.As some brokers show open positions for currencies i noticed that as euro fell also longs position % increased,as at some point last week before euro fell the sides were almost 30%long 70short,and usually it would be close to 50/50,so some thoughts for the Sunday,and market will show us who is who
  • #380,286
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:19pm Feb 5, 2011 4:19pm
Quoting Jane_peters
Anyone know of a good post or thread to learn about wave analysis.
Everything you should know is in the book "Elliott Wave Principle" from Prechter.

The best blog I have ever seen regarding Elliott Wave on stock markets is that here:

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

Maybe this one, too:

http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/


Kenny was also a big number in this field. He had a blog which was highly frequented. His analysis was very good and his knowledge about EW was/is outstanding. But then his ego grow too big and a lot of people abandoned and went over to Daneric.

Here is the link to Kenny also:

http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/


Look on their blogrolls for further blogs. There are a few which are also outstanding.

From the blogs mentioned above I have learned a lot of stuff. Pitty is, they do not regularly counts on currencies.


But first read Prechters book 2 or 3 times.

Slightly another approach to EW is Glenn Neelys "Objective Elliott Wave" (OEW)

I do not recommend it for beginners, but for experienced Elliotticans it offers some very good stuff.


Give it a try, it is worth the time. But I do not know, if EW on currencies is the best approach. I do it, but it is tricky. It is easier on stocks.


Best to you,

Markus
  • #380,287
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:35pm Feb 5, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting Mr Hatch


btw: i plan not to trade the way any of you does any longer, so I won't show any charts... would that make me credible?

have a nice weekend, all.
I like it brother. Here a little something I cooked up this weekend. Levels are good for the next 30 days....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #380,288
  • Feb 5, 2011 4:55pm Feb 5, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
The only numbers that matter, are how much that left over 8% has in their accounts.

If the players are big enough, they'll move the other 92% wherever they see fit...

So you think they spared out the 8% with deep pockets..........

Or to say it more academically: you think that the probe was not normally distributed?

Oh man.........
  • #380,289
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:01pm Feb 5, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
Very good you got the basics,and it seems your one of the herd now why?
because last two weeks euro was rising and majority was short,and the rally was for 1000pips until now,and it would rise even more now,because as shorts got blown out every day,people started thinking other direction,and here game starts all over again.As some brokers show open positions for currencies i noticed that as euro fell also longs position % increased,as at some point last week before euro fell the sides were almost 30%long 70short,and usually it would be close...
Hi Pinkiaiii,

well said, well said. Maybe we remove the Dr. from Mr. Geppynius

Have a nice weekend,

Markus
  • #380,290
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:05pm Feb 5, 2011 5:05pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,

good to see one more here with EW knowledge :-)

Doing EW it is important to also watch sentiment level. Per Thursday we had only 7% USD bulls left. End of November there were 82% bulls. Look what happened since then.

Also worth to look at COT data http://www.wellenreiter-invest.de/Co...coms.price.htm<

Look what the large specs did last weeks. They abandoned their short positions with rising prices.

Maybe the first minor 5 wave move down found its end on Friday. I think in this case we might get only a relatively...
Hi Markus,

Yup I'm learning Elliott wave more in depth... Though I am also curious to see Ian Copsey's harmonic elliott wave as the fibonacci numbers he's added to elliott's existing finding gives me more confidence in my analysis etc. I think i will be buying his book soon enough.

I agree with you in that I don't see much of a retrace so a flat correction looks to be in the works. We should push down to test 1.3550 area again before shooting further up for the retrace imo.

Having said that, it was friday and the big boys may have left early. So wave 1 minor may still not be complete and we have more down to go before the retrace actually starts. USDx also broken out of its daily downtrend line - if we don't retest this line and carry on shooting up - it will be another sign that wave 3 up is already on the move.

Daily on EU is still a little unclear to be honest though i have a few reasons to believe we are no longer in an uptrend nor correction - again take my words with a pinch of salt. I haven't posted anything on the lower TFs as i don't really know what to make of them so waiting for market next week to give me an answer and I've started looking at larger TF's as my goal to get into carry trading.

I've uploaded a chart of EU daily - the blue fibo is DOWNtrend from 1.42xx to 1.29xx and the red fibo is UPtrend 1.29xx to 1.3858. Notice the red 23.6% and the blue 50% fibo levels... EGkid mentioned 1.3580 and 1.3620 is an extremely important zone... breakout one side is the key here..

Thanks for ul your charts too Markus, I am learning a lot from you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #380,291
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:07pm Feb 5, 2011 5:07pm
Quoting infinitus
So you think they spared out the 8% with deep pockets..........

Or to say it more academically: you think that the probe was not normally distributed?

Oh man.........

I'm saying that if there were only 8% USD bulls left on Thursday a m, they pushed the rest of the world around.

The herd mentality was the 92% short on the buck.

In terms of monetary value, this is not an evenly distributed game.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #380,292
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:10pm Feb 5, 2011 5:10pm
Quote
Per Thursday we had only 7% USD bulls left. End of November there were 82% bulls. Look what happened since then.

Think about that.

82% bulls, and it falls like a stone.

8% bulls, and it moves up.

Seeing something about the drovers, and not the herd here?
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #380,293
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:15pm Feb 5, 2011 5:15pm
Quoting infinitus
Everything you should know is in the book "Elliott Wave Principle" from Prechter.

The best blog I have ever seen regarding Elliott Wave on stock markets is that here:

............


Best to you,

Markus

Hi Markus,

Thanks for those links, didn't know about those ones! Regarding the COT chart, I haven't really read much into the COT chart though I know daily FX provide one... I thought each broker has their own COT chart? or is this a global result from the movements of the market?

In the last couple of years i've gone through and thrown away so many tools to my trading. I also found that the more information i read the less i wanna trade (confusion of which way the market is going)... Do you believe in your opinion the COT chart is well worth adding into technical analysis?

sentiment i never bother with these days.. again another tool i threw away as the results i saw were down to the individual broker... i believe those answers can be found on a chart? please correct me if i am wrong or have misunderstood...

Again, I appreciate your input... Good trading

What is your overall feel of the EU atm? downtrend or correction?
  • #380,294
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:36pm Feb 5, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
Think about that.

82% bulls, and it falls like a stone.

8% bulls, and it moves up.

Seeing something about the drovers, and not the herd here?

yes this is why i don't read market sentiments.... big players probably throw more on crack and ho's than us retailers collectively do in the market. charts will tell us which what they are doing - not sentiment... and if it isn't clear - stay out.
  • #380,295
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:37pm Feb 5, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Pinkiaiii,

well said, well said. Maybe we remove the Dr. from Mr. Geppynius

Have a nice weekend,

Markus
u too Markus,thanks for the book advices.
  • #380,296
  • Feb 5, 2011 5:58pm Feb 5, 2011 5:58pm
8% bulls in ff ? that means for sure we go to 1.5...lol

a weekly doji after nfp ... how convenient..mmmm... by the time the sellers realize they been conned .. to late 40 % of account gone

Caution is required if eu break 1.3640 to top side... next stop 1.4250

Quoting infinitus
Yeah, entertaining too that you think about 1.40 since there where only 8% USD bulls left on Thursday. Do you believe that those conditions are already worked off? Curious........
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #380,297
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:00pm Feb 5, 2011 6:00pm
Quoting malcolmb14
8% bulls in ff ? that means for sure we go to 1.5...lol

a weekly doji after nfp ... how convenient..mmmm... by the time the sellers realize they been conned .. to late 40 % of account gone


More like...VSA says long...I am kewl holding my shorts!

Get a real chart Mal...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #380,298
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:06pm Feb 5, 2011 6:06pm
COT is futures related. Doesn't vary broker to broker and is a window into what the smart money/commercials are doing. So for those who are unaware or possibly ignorant it is useless. For those who do use it it is indispensible.

Although one drawback is it comes out on a delayed basis once a week.
  • #380,299
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:07pm Feb 5, 2011 6:07pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
I like it brother. Here a little something I cooked up this weekend. Levels are good for the next 30 days....
oh noes, ptl, we screwed up again

bit of fine-tuning to do on sunday afternoon, but won't be trading before frankie on monday.
  • #380,300
  • Feb 5, 2011 6:08pm Feb 5, 2011 6:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14
8% bulls in ff ? that means for sure we go to 1.5...lol

a weekly doji after nfp ... how convenient..mmmm... by the time the sellers realize they been conned .. to late 40 % of account gone

Caution is required if eu break 1.3640 to top side... next stop 1.4250
hi Malc,

May I ask how you come to the conclusion that a break of 1.3640 will give us 1.4250? I see 1.4250 is close to the weekly upper TL. but there are many many barriers in front..

After the daily and weekly candle close - i would rather put my money on shorts... the selling wasn't the doing of small timers... it was the big sharks - i believe they are gonna push for a 1000 pips before thinking of taking profit... i would like to see 1.30 in the next month or so...
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