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  • #380,241
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:03am Feb 5, 2011 8:03am
me too. changing our mind is our prerogative . the only thing i can say right now is if it brakes 3620 or so, then it goes to 3700. downside, i would not dare lower than 3550-3540 for now.

Quoting KillerWhale
For now I would say down, but I'm going to study charts and fundamentals and I might change my view before market opens tomorrow.

Shamu
  • #380,242
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:22am Feb 5, 2011 8:22am
Quoting attila
me too. changing our mind is our prerogative . the only thing i can say right now is if it brakes 3620 or so, then it goes to 3700. downside, i would not dare lower than 3550-3540 for now.
I see you are from Chicago. I'm from San Diego but through work in El Paso TX right now, we have experienced Chicago winter temperatures the last couple of days and I must say that I don't like that at all.
Power out 3 times a day and extremely cold.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #380,243
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:26am Feb 5, 2011 8:26am
Quoting Jane_peters
Anyone know of a good post or thread to learn about wave analysis.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=97335

thats for experienced elliotticians who post their analysis... i am no expert with elliott wave but trying to learn at the moment...

i would recommend you buy a book or two if you are new to elliott wave... Robert Pretcher is a good start..

i have some material regarding elliott wave you may be interested in... pm if so
  • #380,244
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:28am Feb 5, 2011 8:28am
last months bar was extremely superbullish with shaking out 1.30 and having power to go all the way back up. in fact, i have not seen such a strong bar itself since more than a year. the 50% fib level is the only one i use, if at all. so until now we sit above the 50% of the range.

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/445...0205151813.png

the daily here shows a wide spread down bar without followthrough. friday was a very tiny spread and obviously reduced vol at support. both factors itself are indicative for possible lack of supply. the regular bulls might be on sidelines now and the bears are feeling good over the weekend. a rapid markup on monday makes sure to lock shorts in a bad position and keep bulls out. the next best thing besides making money on wallstreet is preventing others from making money.

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/4...0205151907.png

just my thoughts. no call yet, i am just NOT on the sellside here.


Quoting attila
you are right about he herd but 1.4 remains to be seen, won't it? daily and weekly did some interesting things on my charts.

daily shows 1.406 upside, 1.3401 downside
weekly 1.4390, and 1.29.
  • #380,245
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:30am Feb 5, 2011 8:30am
despite what you see on tv, it's not that bad. i've seen cold here that you would not believe... your face is falling off, and i had to DRIVE my dog to the "walking" place. poor thing would become disoriented... telling you, it can get much worse.

Quoting KillerWhale
I see you are from Chicago. I'm from San Diego but through work in El Paso TX right now, we have experienced Chicago winter temperatures the last couple of days and I must say that I don't like that at all.
Power out 3 times a day and extremely cold.

Shamu
  • #380,246
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:37am Feb 5, 2011 8:37am
I see where you're coming from, and that monthly bar around 1.20 is very strong medicine. like i said, i would not venture south of 1.3540 right now.

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
last months bar was extremely superbullish with shaking out 1.30 and having power to go all the way back up. in fact, i have not seen such a strong bar itself since more than a year. the 50% fib level is the only one i use, if at all. so until now we sit above the 50% of the range.

http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/445...0205151813.png

the daily here shows a wide spread down bar without followthrough. friday was a very tiny spread and obviously reduced vol at support. both factors itself are indicative for possible lack of supply....
  • #380,247
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:47am Feb 5, 2011 8:47am
Quoting attila
you are right about he herd but 1.4 remains to be seen, won't it? daily and weekly did some interesting things on my charts.

daily shows 1.406 upside, 1.3401 downside
weekly 1.4390, and 1.29.
1.40? I really hope not buddy

But here is my take:

Dxy has been in an uptrend since 2008.. gator mentioned this lots of times.. we may have set a major bottom in the dxy... a break below 76 and i would re evaluate my charts..

i've posted a weekly chart showing uptrend... and a daily chart showing breakout to the upside... I am ready to see a retest of the break out so do not rule out EU climbing more at SOME stage... though near term technically i see eu dropping lower... again as i always stress my analysis could be way off..

dxy breaking above 81 in my eyes means uptrend confirmed.. i don't expect to see 81 break so easily though it may happen during this C wave up...

on eu weekly we stopped right at the cluster f£$k area... but last candlestick showing major bearish signs... will post smaller TF analysis next....
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  • #380,248
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:51am Feb 5, 2011 8:51am
great analysis there... and i appreciate your analysis may turn out correct.. gotta see what market does next week... GL

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
last months bar was extremely superbullish with shaking out 1.30 and having power to go all the way back up. in fact, i have not seen such a strong bar itself since more than a year. the 50% fib level is the only one i use, if at all. so until now we sit above the 50% of the range.



the daily here shows a wide spread down bar without followthrough. friday was a very tiny spread and obviously reduced vol at support. both factors itself are indicative for possible lack of supply. the regular bulls might be on sidelines now and the bears are feeling...
  • #380,249
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:54am Feb 5, 2011 8:54am
the reactions off of the support tl reduce increasingly from touch to touch. i don't know who introduced dx here, but the point is, that it is not the tool of first choice to measure strength of a spot cross pair. the fx market is where cash lies and futures have to follow, not vice versa, so take care


Quoting jaylovin
1.40? I really hope not buddy

But here is my take:

Dxy has been in an uptrend since 2008.. gator mentioned this lots of times.. we may have set a major bottom in the dxy... a break below 76 and i would re evaluate my charts..

i've posted a weekly chart showing uptrend... and a daily chart showing breakout to the upside......
  • #380,250
  • Feb 5, 2011 8:55am Feb 5, 2011 8:55am
Quoting attila
I see where you're coming from, and that monthly bar around 1.20 is very strong medicine. like i said, i would not venture south of 1.3540 right now.
34340 should be an interesting one to watch, if we get there. Eyes on 3537 below and 3668 above.
  • #380,251
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:01am Feb 5, 2011 9:01am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the reactions off of the support tl reduce increasingly from touch to touch. i don't know who introduced dx here, but the point is, that it is not the tool of first choice to measure strength of a spot cross pair. the fx market is where cash lies and futures have to follow, not vice versa, so take care
agree.. but i tend to use DX with the EU pair because of the volume Euro accounts for against the dollar...

i did notice 1.35 not having the significance that it used to have... same with 1.3333... though you could say thats the idea of adapting to the market...

i have a longterm short here 1.3615 from a few weeks back as i'm testing out carry trading live now... so will keep that - TP will be 1.30 if/when it comes...

thanks again
  • #380,252
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:02am Feb 5, 2011 9:02am
all these numbers are way too far for me. i never said 1.40. i'll be trading the range 1.3450-1.3620. if it brakes 1.3620 I'll move it up to 1.3620-1.3700.

Quoting jaylovin
1.40? I really hope not buddy

But here is my take:

Dxy has been in an uptrend since 2008.. gator mentioned this lots of times.. we may have set a major bottom in the dxy... a break below 76 and i would re evaluate my charts..

i've posted a weekly chart showing uptrend... and a daily chart showing breakout to the upside......
  • #380,253
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:06am Feb 5, 2011 9:06am
Quoting attila
all these numbers are way too far for me. i never said 1.40. i'll be trading the range 1.3450-1.3620. if it brakes 1.3620 I'll move it up to 1.3620-1.3700.
ok i misunderstood what you thought... my apologies
  • #380,254
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:07am Feb 5, 2011 9:07am
Quoting attila
all these numbers are way too far for me. i never said 1.40. i'll be trading the range 1.3450-1.3620. if it brakes 1.3620 I'll move it up to 1.3620-1.3700.


I long for the day when I can actually trade intraday. For now, daily/weekly it is. It's nice not having to constantly monitor orders, but man, is it ever bloody boring.
  • #380,255
  • Edited 9:53am Feb 5, 2011 9:08am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting Venice
34340 should be an interesting one to watch, if we get there. Eyes on 3537 below and 3668 above.
i have 3510 downside on h4 but there is a lot in the way to there and that TF (H4) is turning up. so if it gets there will not be before some significant retrace, hence the 3620 i mentioned before.

bottom line is there is a lot of conflicting info across all Time Frames.

so let's start methodically:

h4: never reached the bottom at 3510
h1 bottomed and it's moving up towards 3617, and that's awfully close to 3620 so i would make that my first likely target
m30 and m15 bottomed and show the top around 3600 so expect at least a hefty retrace there before continuing up if it does that.

so let's recap: 3600 is the first resistance that has to be taken out. if it's not, it goes back down to 3540 and possibly lower to finish h4 at 3510. if 3600 gives in, then look up to 3620. from there it either goes back down on h4 down to 3510 or it breaks it(i tend to believe that if it got all the way there , it will break it) and we are looking at 3700. that would still leave h4 not finished so 3510 is still in play. 3700 is way too far right now so we'll see what it does early next week.

edit: let me throw a 2X4 in all these. if 3510 doesn't hold, then daily 3400 is likely.
  • #380,256
  • Feb 5, 2011 9:19am Feb 5, 2011 9:19am
Quoting Venice


I long for the day when I can actually trade intraday. For now, daily/weekly it is. It's nice not having to constantly monitor orders, but man, is it ever bloody boring.

whats your secret??? i'm the total opposite and striving to carry trade.. i just feel i can be doing other things instead of having to monitor trades... i'm not interested in catching every pip (which is a loosing streak imo) nor do i wanna try to maximise profits by re entering on retraces... but psychologically i can't turn my back on active trades
  • #380,257
  • Edited 12:04pm Feb 5, 2011 9:24am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting jaylovin
ok i misunderstood what you thought... my apologies
no problem, i posted a new one.... and that's with only one coffee on board
  • #380,258
  • Feb 5, 2011 10:26am Feb 5, 2011 10:26am
Quoting attila
no problem, i posted a new one.... and that's with only one coffee on board
even the greatest of men story struggle without that first cup of Joe!:-)
  • #380,259
  • Edited 11:19am Feb 5, 2011 11:07am | Edited 11:19am
Sitting idle & so open usdx at this conflict level .Removed all old & taking fresh charts .

What higher tf telling not to mention but what lower tf may does just considering . daily tf started bounce & may continue some first hand and as weekly seems want a retest the ltl again ( more probable after 1 week than this ) if breaks possible hence may back again there before bounce again.lower tf it is more clear that next goes further up towards 78.32 from now 78.01 before back near tl 77.57 -77.0 to break or bounce enough this time .

Similarly eu may continue some downwards pressure, below 3565 cretical level to breaks ( towards 3465 /83) or not 3538 and range again as to retrace enough 3661,3750 0r evem more near top with usdx retest ltl to continue further down with usdx bounce most possible & hence eu down may to a moderate amount .

anyway do anything with lots many changes or changes patterns , but mofu playing & respecting highly within its limits till it over big surprise .

eu not updating such hf chart as almst opposite usdx but as reference old chart , utl retest to try before fall enough .

fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.gif Size: 12 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #380,260
  • Feb 5, 2011 11:28am Feb 5, 2011 11:28am
Quoting KillerWhale
Hey Chicky I think I told you 2 days ago "show some guts" and go short.
I did and made a ton of money.

Shamu
Shamu, I remember that advice. In fact it was never out of my thoughts also because of Gator's view of the pa. As mentioned in my earlier post, I would normally short the top of a channel but this one time decided to stay away. I maybe wrong, but cannot ingnore my gut feelings.

My profit or loss is not directly proportional to the number of pips pa moves. A 20, 30, 50 or 100 pip move gives same profit or loss as that of a 300 pip move. Because of this feature of my method, I can watch and admire biggest moves while sitting at the sidelines like a predator waiting for the lame and weakest prey to separate from the hurd.
The Thief of Wall Street
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