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  • #379,921
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:12am Feb 4, 2011 8:12am
the same shitt NFP

lets see if 3640 holds and a daily close below will be nice for bears

up down up

or

down up down

lets see what the big azz'z will do
  • #379,922
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:13am Feb 4, 2011 8:13am
Quoting T@rantula
When trading NFP, unemployment rate is more important then NFP solely. We had ADP prior to NFP so overall it has been priced in.

ALWAYS look for this...

There is usually a spike. Sell close to resistance ( we dont buy resistance, we sell it) if the numbers are green.

If the numbers are red...wait for a retracment then buy close to resistance.

Just remember. Unemployment rate numbers are more important. And trade only in the direction of the intraday trend.

Be sure to check my post I made this morning before any movement. I expected this. Pure...
thanks, very helpful info
  • #379,923
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:13am Feb 4, 2011 8:13am
Quoting sisse
I posted in the other thread my plan... In any case, love the numbers...dislocated from each other.

Unemployment #s at 9% are "amazing" (especially as a political tool for the Obama Administration and the mandatory FED shift to inflation very soon) but the NFP #s didnt match .... gotta love those statistics. Thats why the timid (for NFP) move. Now testing daily support at 1.358x that will also decide if it goes down a lot more today.

Checking the ES now but US stock markets open will put an end for the week.

We'll see

sisse
Reducing the labor force by 1/2 mill always looks good in the percentage rate. See my earlier post with the link and quote.
  • #379,924
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:13am Feb 4, 2011 8:13am
Quoting greenuns
hi guys,
could someone explain to me what the data means?
I suck at fundis and some help would be great...
36k, 9%, 0.4%...

NFP is waaay less then forecast but unemployment rate is lower...is this bad or good? Hourly earnings is up but not much...

my take is government managed to lower the unemployment rate but actual numbers show a less than moderate improvement?
risk back on maybe?

thanks
greg
The best advice I can give you is to almost totally ignore the fundamentals. These figures will be curve fitted good or bad depending on where the day finishes. Not a great payrolls number, but considering it was conducted during the blizzards, it could have been worse.

Now, the difficult part.... is a bad number good or bad for the Dollar? Answers on a postcard please...

Great number = Dollar +ve, because the US is recovering.
Great number = Dollar -ve, because the world economy is rocovering, risk-on.

etc etc. It's total bollocks, honestly.
  • #379,925
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:14am Feb 4, 2011 8:14am
Quoting Mr Hatch
ptl, levels set yesteday after daily candle closed.

the thing is now, which wave-count is valid? i saw a lot that put buy-limits to 3575 for approx. 150 pips.
I dont know what to make of it brother, looking for a clean break of one of these mofus.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #379,926
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:15am Feb 4, 2011 8:15am
Quoting jaylovin
so the idea is to buy close to resistence after its retraced downward?
If the overall intraday trend is UP ( long ), buy close to a support as there is usually a spike in opposite direction. Vice versa for bearish intraday.

If there is no spike in an opposite direction ( retrace ) and the price continues UP without a retrace ( uptrend), that is a NO TRADE. Thats why I stated prior to NFP that I may enter if i see a spike up.

I sold resistance and entered on retrace. Thats how it should be done.
  • #379,927
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:15am Feb 4, 2011 8:15am
Nothing special but take the most risky job , breaks down first to finish possible 5th wave or only 1 of 5th ? lets see if breaks the level 3566 actually to bounce back for full retracement .
price retrace to 3677 & above will only confirm 5th over & retracement , otherwise to down next waves .
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #379,928
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:16am Feb 4, 2011 8:16am
Quoting sisse
I posted in the other thread my plan... In any case, love the numbers...dislocated from each other.

Unemployment #s at 9% are "amazing" (especially as a political tool for the Obama Administration and the mandatory FED shift to inflation very soon) but the NFP #s didnt match .... gotta love those statistics. Thats why the timid (for NFP) move. Now testing daily support at 1.358x that will also decide if it goes down a lot more today.

Checking the ES now but US stock markets open will put an end for the week.

We'll see

sisse
agreed, clean break of the lows, and the bears could take the momentum back for a few days at least...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #379,929
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:17am Feb 4, 2011 8:17am
Quoting T@rantula
When trading NFP, unemployment rate is more important then NFP solely. We had ADP prior to NFP so overall it has been priced in.

ALWAYS look for this...

There is usually a spike. Sell close to resistance ( we dont buy resistance, we sell it) if the numbers are green.

If the numbers are red...wait for a retracment then buy close to resistance.

Just remember. Unemployment rate numbers are more important. And trade only in the direction of the intraday trend.

Be sure to check my post I made this morning before any movement. I expected this....
Nice post. Thanks! Did you mean buy close to support? Thanks!
  • #379,930
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:17am Feb 4, 2011 8:17am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I dont know what to make of it brother, looking for a clean break of one of these mofus.
don't know either, I just demo trade... and always after the fact

off for food.
  • #379,931
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:17am Feb 4, 2011 8:17am
Quoting cloggie
Reducing the labor force by 1/2 mill always looks good in the percentage rate. See my earlier post with the link and quote.
I agree. Thats what i mentioned the political benefit not the economic benefit of the number. The average Joe doesn't know and cares about technicalities ....so the numbers are very good in that sense.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #379,932
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:19am Feb 4, 2011 8:19am
Quoting Mr Hatch
don't know either, I just demo trade... and always after the fact

off for food.
lol. enjoy...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #379,933
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:19am Feb 4, 2011 8:19am
Quoting hfcgII
Nice post. Thanks! Did you mean buy close to support? Thanks!

Doesnt matter. You just corrected it.
  • #379,934
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:19am Feb 4, 2011 8:19am
Quoting hfcgII
Nice post. Thanks! Did you mean buy close to support? Thanks!
yes. it was a typo. Corrected myself.
  • #379,935
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:20am Feb 4, 2011 8:20am
i dont know why, but i hit the button sell on friday for the second time, again a huntch, last one before NFP i got it right. a lot of people made the winnings on 1.3570 lowest on the week....we got to 1.36 and in gbp 1.61, and as i write is already rebouncing.

WE should break that 1.3570, if we do im selling there again adding another lot to 1.3520, just for today, i guess we are heading to 1.34-1.345 next week, so people like me and a lot from this forum can load some long term longs....

good luck guys
  • #379,936
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:20am Feb 4, 2011 8:20am
Quoting fontu
Nothing special but take the most risky job , breaks down first to finish possible 5th wave or only 1 of 5th ? lets see if breaks the level 3566 actually to bounce back for full retracement .
price retrace to 3677 & above will only confirm 5th over & retracement , otherwise to down next waves .
fontu
I am waiting for confirm the h1 retrace...
NICE idea Fontu
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #379,937
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:22am Feb 4, 2011 8:22am
Again short 3603
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Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #379,938
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:24am Feb 4, 2011 8:24am
Quoting ukdaytrader
The best advice I can give you is to almost totally ignore the fundamentals. These figures will be curve fitted good or bad depending on where the day finishes. Not a great payrolls number, but considering it was conducted during the blizzards, it could have been worse.

Now, the difficult part.... is a bad number good or bad for the Dollar? Answers on a postcard please...

Great number = Dollar +ve, because the US is recovering.
Great number = Dollar -ve, because the world economy is rocovering, risk-on.

etc...
Now there's some stellar advice. Let the charts talk.
  • #379,939
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:26am Feb 4, 2011 8:26am
Quoting navhin
sold eu at 1.3674. SL moved to 1.3674 TP around 1.35XX region..hoping +100pips.
closed my short for +100pips...
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  • #379,940
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:26am Feb 4, 2011 8:26am
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2011-02-03_15h29_EURUSD _ min005 _ (1100 x 800) 001b.PNG (22.4 KB)

CANDLE VOLUME CHART


Quoting T@rantula
Done.

Closed 3590

NFP + Unemployment rate news trade:

+ 80 pips
Well done as mostly ... wirklich gut gemacht ! ! !

I really congrat you to your clear stance and view ... a stance which is that clear and simple and without any 'Firlefanz' that is rare, very rare (!) or should I have better said nearly not to be found in this internet fake place or wasteland ... as you are one of the rare 'zehnvau-plus' members who have got real merrits here ... not stalking around ... not talking much vage things ... and mostly respecting other traders as well ... kurzum - man merkt - dass da etwas echte Substanz dahinter steht ...

And I still wonder how many 'pippers' will find that much time to post on a day like this ... only explanation that I do have - is ... they really do not trade much ... not with that large accounts as they say ... and possibly not with real accounts ...

greetings
mercy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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