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  • #379,901
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:04am Feb 4, 2011 8:04am
hi guys,
could someone explain to me what the data means?
I suck at fundis and some help would be great...
36k, 9%, 0.4%...

NFP is waaay less then forecast but unemployment rate is lower...is this bad or good? Hourly earnings is up but not much...

my take is government managed to lower the unemployment rate but actual numbers show a less than moderate improvement?
risk back on maybe?

thanks
greg
  • #379,902
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:04am Feb 4, 2011 8:04am
Quoting T@rantula
Hard to explain it...

I will make a post about news trading, and I think ill also put some of it in my signature, so everyone should know how to trade it.

I got this almost to the pip ( read a few pages before) but I closed it @ 3590...just to make sure the profits....well 80 pips aint bad
Thank you, hope to see it from you soon
  • #379,903
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:05am Feb 4, 2011 8:05am
ptl, levels set yesteday after daily candle closed.

the thing is now, which wave-count is valid? i saw a lot that put buy-limits to 3575 for approx. 150 pips.
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  • #379,904
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:06am Feb 4, 2011 8:06am
Quoting cloggie
Moved stops in a bit more, looking good.

Stopped for a nice tidy sum. We are not getting a runner, equities are recovering.
  • #379,905
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:06am Feb 4, 2011 8:06am
R u still holding shorts?


Quoting PhAnTi'
anyway numbers are faked to the ass.
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #379,906
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:06am Feb 4, 2011 8:06am
When trading NFP, unemployment rate is more important then NFP solely. We had ADP prior to NFP so overall it has been priced in.

ALWAYS look for this...

There is usually a spike. Sell close to resistance ( we dont buy resistance, we sell it) if the numbers are green.

If the numbers are red...wait for a retracment then buy close to resistance.

Just remember. Unemployment rate numbers are more important. And trade only in the direction of the intraday trend.

Be sure to check my post I made this morning before any movement. I expected this. Pure technicals + good fundamentals for a good short.
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  • #379,907
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:07am Feb 4, 2011 8:07am
Quoting cloggie
Good news? it is cr@p news.

Headline figure is cr@p, the rate is better because they increase the number of people not looking for work due to the snow.

They reduced the total labor force down this month also (by 500k), the rate is manipulated. Look at the headline number, that's what the market and the algo's are looking at.
yeah I figured it couldn't be real improvment, NFP should be higher then expected in case employment rise. where did you get the approving there is a lowering in labor force?
  • #379,908
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:07am Feb 4, 2011 8:07am
Don't hold your breath.... and if you still want to you might want to buy some scuba diving gear. LOL
Quoting khizer
At Least as Senior you should appreciate your junior. See my 42 minuts before Analysis...
  • #379,909
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:08am Feb 4, 2011 8:08am
Quoting egkid
If daily close under 1.3580 that confirmation to my view i post before.
Will hold my trade which is sell 1.3850 and 1.38 e/u and sell 1.62 and 1.6120 g/u
Must go now
Good luck. Don't get killed.
  • #379,910
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:08am Feb 4, 2011 8:08am
Quoting egkid
If daily close under 1.3580 that confirmation to my view i post before.
Will hold my trade which is sell 1.3850 and 1.38 e/u and sell 1.62 and 1.6120 g/u
Must go now
very very good decision, i appreciate your experience sir.
  • #379,911
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:09am Feb 4, 2011 8:09am
Quoting cloggie
Stopped for a nice tidy sum. We are not getting a runner, equities are recovering.
Or is it a wait and see in 30? I expected a small run up the n NY joins to take back down. Now I am not sure of that? Thinking about closing my shorts and waiting???
  • #379,912
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:09am Feb 4, 2011 8:09am
Quoting khizer
R u still holding shorts?
no, got stopped out with +1 .

just bought gold and made my week

Phanti
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #379,913
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:09am Feb 4, 2011 8:09am
Quoting sriramsh
Sorry I am no forex god, I just go by the current market trend... and I have locked in +83 pips as of now... will wait to cash in more....

I would love to make my comments especially what happens during news .... but seeing good guys like cloggie get flamed, I will keep my comments within me and profit from it rather than sharing with the world...
One successful NFP trade which most 3 year olds could have made money on and all of a sudden they are Yoda.
  • #379,914
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:09am Feb 4, 2011 8:09am
NFP rakes up some termites, well we don't see them everyday.

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/6390/getj.gif
  • #379,915
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:10am Feb 4, 2011 8:10am
Quoting lev1987
yeah I figured it couldn't be real improvment, NFP should be higher then expected in case employment rise. where did you get the approving there is a lowering in labor force?

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

The adjustment decreased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional
population in December by 347,000, the civilian labor force by 504,000

Don't trade the news just based on a green little figure on FF, look at the source of the data.

I closed my shorts (see earlier post) based on the equities recovering and the futures actually gaining some for the day. All t-bills are down too.

Am now flat across the board and going to let this settle for further trades.
  • #379,916
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:10am Feb 4, 2011 8:10am
Quoting cloggie
Stopped for a nice tidy sum. We are not getting a runner, equities are recovering.

I closed my trades for +80 pips, seems like we might head back into 1.3650 range since market has digested that nfp has crappy numbers...
  • #379,917
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:10am Feb 4, 2011 8:10am
Quoting T@rantula
If the numbers are red...wait for a retracment then buy close to resistance.

Attachment
so the idea is to buy close to resistence after its retraced downward?
  • #379,918
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:11am Feb 4, 2011 8:11am
1354 GMT (Dow Jones) EUR/USD is just about holding above the 1.3570 week's low and key pivot level. A sustained break here will likely see a slew of stops hit, which could see the 1.34 handle trade. Alternatively, if 1.3570 holds then it may encourage the market to start rebuild longs. EUR/USD now at 1.3579. ([email protected])
  • #379,919
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:11am Feb 4, 2011 8:11am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Sisse, anything going?
I posted in the other thread my plan... In any case, love the numbers...dislocated from each other.

Unemployment #s at 9% are "amazing" (especially as a political tool for the Obama Administration and the mandatory FED shift to inflation very soon) but the NFP #s didnt match .... gotta love those statistics. Thats why the timid (for NFP) move. Now testing daily support at 1.358x that will also decide if it goes down a lot more today.

Checking the ES now but US stock markets open will put an end for the week.

We'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #379,920
  • Feb 4, 2011 8:11am Feb 4, 2011 8:11am
I had sell entry @ 3667 and buy entry @ 3586. I only play one direction daily. Guess what. Today system said buy. Always the damn direction... Thta's 80 pips that could have been + now, I'm left praying... If this doesn't head north this week will be negative for me.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
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