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  • #41
  • Feb 3, 2011 4:47am Feb 3, 2011 4:47am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Well interestingly enough as soon as the news broke in the morning the first reports were that it wasn't as bad as they were expecting. At that point it would have been a good idea to close the trade as the uncertainty had now vanished from the situation. But seeing as I originally said I'd hold it till London I did and got stopped out at BE as the market edged back up.

Just demo of course I don usually trade this way.

Interesting though how the value depreciated through the unknown and then reverted back to its original value after this perceived...
I see that you have started a new thread and it shows great promise. I think out my own views of the world and of course forex.

I have traded markets for over 25 years. Stocks, Commodities and Forex.

Thinking about what we trade and why is important. The masses always form their opinions lead by others who have their own agenda in stating their views like the spinners on CNBC. Of course they really state what they think but based on what information.

I trade as a contrarian and do my own research by reading material from ALL points of view and then form my own.

What is so clear to me is that the MARKET is always right until it is not.

Explanation:

The market PERCEPTION is NEVER the reality longer term. The second a STRONG NEW fundamental fact becomes clear than PERCEPTION becomes reality.

I knew about the housing meltdown by reading and understanding other non mainstream views and so I was ready for the meltdown.

Information is powerful and having it gives you an edge on others that have misinformation from what I call the guessperts. They get it right about 50% of the time.

NFP on Friday might be 50,000 and then what will they say. How come since ISM was just over 60. They refuse to understand that the SIX HUNDRED BILLION of US Bonds that the FED is printing out of thin air is putting liquidity into the markets HOWEVER this is DEBT.

We do not need to know about hurricanes as much as we should understand what the FED is doing to destroy the US Dollar in order to inflate away the debt.

Their actions has caused Commodity Inflation and now we see the results in the Middle East and DO NOT IGNORE EGYPT.

Thanks for starting this thread. I use charts however they do not predict anything beyond the moment. That's my opinion and I know why I have it.
  • #42
  • Edited 6:33am Feb 3, 2011 5:18am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting Robert99
I see that you have started a new thread and it shows great promise. I think out my own views of the world and of course forex.
Thanks Robert - I'm really hoping to get a whole range of creative ideas flowing from various people and to see people thinking like entrepreneurs taking advantage of opportunities instead of the normal "technical analysis" routine that seems to be bread into most of us who never had anywhere else to turn but to the old MT4 platform and technical studies.

I think with a bit of participation it could be a really interesting thread but I know its hard to break people away from the comfort zone of their charts.

Personally I find myself when I'm stuck for ideas almost instinctively going back to the chart but I'm currently trying to break this habit. I think with the right mindset and information focus trading could be as hard as picking the right market.
Time hides Nothing
  • #43
  • Feb 3, 2011 9:50am Feb 3, 2011 9:50am
As prices fall in EU, I'm watching the 1.3450-3650 region for firm bids. I'm tying this into the Goldman's prediction putting EU at 1.4 within a month, up to 1.5 within a year. Also, EU promises to burn the fingers of those who bet against the Euro. haha. Kind of makes you want to bet against it... But it's all interesting nonetheless.
  • #44
  • Feb 3, 2011 7:14pm Feb 3, 2011 7:14pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Thanks Robert - I'm really hoping to get a whole range of creative ideas flowing from various people and to see people thinking like entrepreneurs taking advantage of opportunities instead of the normal "technical analysis" routine that seems to be bread into most of us who never had anywhere else to turn but to the old MT4 platform and technical studies.

I think with a bit of participation it could be a really interesting thread but I know its hard to break people away from the comfort zone of their charts.

Personally I find myself when I'm...
These comments are from my own experiences trading forex now for close to 5 years. I trade as a fundamental fx trader. I use a formula that works. It is my own formula. I use technicals for proper entry and exit. I only trade having a trade plan. I have risk management to control my capital losses. I win over 60% of all my fx trades.

I understand the geopolitical and the economic issues. I spend 3 hours a day reading new material. I focus on my goals which is to make money and not to make my ego stronger. I do not trade my fear or my greed. I do not overtrade. I am careful to not trade before major news such as the press conference today at 8:30 AM EST that Trichet held.

No chart told you he would be less hawkish than before. EUR/USD now trades at 1.3627 and some were calling it to continue up from 1.3800 using the charts. Some of these were major signal services.

Forex is about supply and demand. The second part is about taking money from retail trader's who have no clue about what they are doing. If 90% lose trading forex then guaranteed 75% of these who lose trade just using charts. They do not look at fundamentals. Some trade accounts with less than $5000 US, others really think Price Action and Technicals alone will result in profits. There may be some with the right temperment who might win just using PA and TA but they surely need to use risk management as well. I have invested much time and energy learning. Trading forex for me is a way of life.

I hope some of my thoughts prove helpful. I am willing to share with anyone interested my trade lessons learned. It will not have an effect on my results.

Be careful on Friday with NFP and the Egypt situation and the coming weekend.

Good evening and good trading.
  • #45
  • Feb 4, 2011 1:18am Feb 4, 2011 1:18am
Hey Robert,
I was very much inspired by your post. I would like to learn from you. Have been wanting to learn trading by fundamentals but I am not realy sure where to begin...and how to piece it all together.

cheers
  • #46
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:24am Feb 4, 2011 2:24am
Quoting Tilt
Hey Robert,
I was very much inspired by your post. I would like to learn from you. Have been wanting to learn trading by fundamentals but I am not realy sure where to begin...and how to piece it all together.

cheers

“When you enter the markets, you are going into a competitive field in which your evaluations and opinions will be matched against some of the sharpest and toughest minds in the business. You are in a highly specialized industry.. under the intense study by men whose economic survival depends on their best judgement. You will certainly be exposed to advise, suggestions, and offers of help from all sides. Unless you are able to develop some market philosophy of your own, you will not be able to tell the good from the bad, the sound from the unsound.” – John Magee
“The art of technical analysis – for it is an art – is to identify trend changes at an early stage and to maintain an investment position until the weight of the evidence indicates the trend has reversed.” – Pring

  • #47
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:18am Feb 4, 2011 4:18am
Quoting Robert99

I hope some of my thoughts prove helpful. I am willing to share with anyone interested my trade lessons learned. It will not have an effect on my results.

Be careful on Friday with NFP and the Egypt situation and the coming weekend.

Good evening and good trading.
Hi Robert... Feel free to use this thread how you wish it would be great to hear your thoughts on the markets.

I am like Tilt I have always wanted to learn the financial system fundamentals but in the past have been stopped by information overload. I don't have as well an understanding about the fundamental side of the markets as I should after being at this for 3 years now.

It kind of embarrassing actually!

Can you recommend any good strategies to start learning fundamentals? Or perhaps some resources? I'm studying macroeconomics at UNI soon so this should be a good start I guess.

Thanks
Time hides Nothing
  • #48
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:21am Feb 4, 2011 4:21am
Quoting Robert99
I see that you have started a new thread and it shows great promise. I think out my own views of the world and of course forex.

I have traded markets for over 25 years. Stocks, Commodities and Forex.

Thinking about what we trade and why is important. The masses always form their opinions lead by others who have their own agenda in stating their views like the spinners on CNBC. Of course they really state what they think but based on what information.

I trade as a contrarian and do my own research by reading material from ALL points of view...
I figure Egypt will be a factor in all trades for a few weeks. No charts needed to guess it.
  • #49
  • Feb 4, 2011 5:40am Feb 4, 2011 5:40am
Quoting Robert99
[indent]“When you enter the markets, you are going into a competitive field in which your evaluations and opinions will be matched against some of the sharpest and toughest minds in the business. You are in a highly specialized industry.. under the intense study by men whose economic survival depends on their best judgement. You will certainly be exposed to advise, suggestions, and offers of help from all sides. Unless you are able to develop some market philosophy of your own, you will not be able to tell the good from the bad, the sound from the...
Thank you Robert,it's going to my notes.
Cindy I am also in my uni economics studies...I guess we are both near the same level regarding fundamentals. I am more than willing to do the work all I need is some quidance as to what we should be learning. If Robert could provide some guidance for us I would appreciated very much,and I feel others would also. We could all learn and discuss fundamentals here together. Do you all agree? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Let me start by explaining what I think or know about the subject so far...
Market is fundamentaly driven by macroeconomics factors(GDP,interest rates,Employment,sentiment....and so on),CB's intervention,goverment policies... so I quess i need to first understand all those factors and more,and tie it all together.
I have many times seen a expresion risk appetite and risk aversion,which I would like to know more about. Risk aversion is economic uncertanty, capital flows to safe heaven which is USD,right? (this might change soon right?).Risk appetite,economic stability-capital flows to where grater yield is. Am I right?

So is this the kind of question I should be asking myself? How is the market,risk aversion or risk appetite? Or what are the questions I should be asking myself to get a sense of the large picture?

thank you
Tilt
  • #50
  • Feb 4, 2011 5:54am Feb 4, 2011 5:54am
Quoting Tilt
Thank you Robert,it's going to my notes.
Cindy I am also in my uni economics studies...I guess we are both near the same level regarding fundamentals. I am more than willing to do the work all I need is some quidance as to what we should be learning. If Robert could provide some guidance for us I would appreciated very much,and I feel others would also. We could all learn and discuss fundamentals here together. Do you all agree?...
Feel free Tilt sounds like a good idea - I too am seeking some guidance as to where to begin. I'd like to be able to build a solid map in my head as to the way the whole things functions and flows and then of course apply it to trading strategies.
Time hides Nothing
  • #51
  • Feb 4, 2011 6:17am Feb 4, 2011 6:17am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Feel free Tilt sounds like a good idea - I too am seeking some guidance as to where to begin. I'd like to be able to build a solid map in my head as to the way the whole things functions and flows and then of course apply it to trading strategies.
The key to understanding fundamentals is to read different points of view.

There are two different schools of economics. One is mainstream and amazingly is accepted by many including intelligent economists such as Bernake who is one of the worst heads of the FED ever. I will explain as we move on. I follow the Austrian School Of Economics.

I think the BEST way to learn here is to post some links to some of my research material and everyone here who wants to learn can read and ask me any question that you want. If I cannot answer I will find the answer for you.

First and foremost it is critical to understand that Forex is a business where over Three Trillion Dollars a day change hands to settle business transactions. Then there is the retail trade which is all of us and many more non institutional traders.

I have no doubt that if you invest three months on this thread you will improve your knowledge by 100%. I will find a good starting article for all of you interested to read.

The flow of money from one asset class to another moves the markets.
Those charts normally do not move the markets. Understanding why the movement of the price of Gold and Oil causes changes in various currencies gives you an edge. Where does the money flow when there is risk. What will happen if serious riots with many deaths occur in Egypt today. Where will the money go. It will go to US Bonds or treasuries. In order to go there ASSET CLASSES such as Euro and Pound are sold. The Dow is sold. The CASH is used to buy US Dollars in order to buy US Bonds between 2 Years and 30 Years.

I will be back with some reading material for anyone interested.
  • #52
  • Feb 4, 2011 6:49am Feb 4, 2011 6:49am
boring

sorry, mistake
  • #53
  • Feb 4, 2011 7:52am Feb 4, 2011 7:52am
Quoting Robert99

“When you enter the ................” – John Magee
“The art of technical analysis .............” – Pring

2 quotes from noted T A advocates??????????? Huh?
  • #54
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:08pm Feb 4, 2011 12:08pm
Great,looking forward to the material...

Tilt
  • #55
  • Feb 7, 2011 11:02pm Feb 7, 2011 11:02pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
This thread is posting trade calls and/or discussion based on ANYTHING apart from the use of a conventional chart.

So basically anything that you can do without having a chart in front of you to see things like price action, S/R etc

Its a challenge sir. Have a crack

This thread got really spicy with spam, especially that ripoffreport.com page was spicy...


However, are we talking about tape reading pretty much?

If not I traded stocks based on if it was a sunny day or not, sun=bulls. Then I started trading with indicators and the sun.
Worked like a charm, but everything worked in 2006....
  • #56
  • May 3, 2011 5:23am May 3, 2011 5:23am
Hey guys, don't let this thread die! The idea is awesome.

Later on I would like to elaborate more about some ways to trade without charts and eventually trigger some discussion.

The first one is: what about going long USD/JPY today? Right now it's below 81.00. This trade would be an exploit of a possible Japanese intervention on this pair, which usually happens below that rate.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #57
  • Last Post: May 4, 2011 10:05am May 4, 2011 10:05am
I see three ways to "explore" the market without any chart:

1) exploiting some characteristic of a specific pair - as an example, the regular intervention of the JCB on USD/JPY at some level (around 81.00)

2) some mathematical/statistical analysis of historical rates or an algorithm (someone criticized Martingale, but that's a valid method and can be profitable, regardless of the "gambling" issue. I consider it as a "brute force" method which can be fine-tuned through software. I did it. It was backtested with data from the previous two years and it's profitable for the last 6 months on a live account, with over 500 trades.)

3) pure fundamental analysis and price assessment - let's say, I have the feeling that silver got too expensive in such a short time, so I can simply short XAG/USD

Those were the approaches that came into my mind. If someone comes up with any other, feel free to add it here.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
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