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  • #378,241
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:34pm Feb 2, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
aren't they usually an A,B,C as well?


Don't know, don't use waves/cycles, I am a simpler kind of guy. Price continues, I stay in, price stops, I get out.

Put your fib on all 3 bounces today and you can see how the 23.6/50 holds true for decent scalps. Have a look to at Red's thread, he likes these counters. The trick is you gotta get in within 3-6 pips of the bounce or else it is not worth it, especially if the bounce comes after only a 40 pip drop. The better bounces are the ones after the 60-80 pip moves.
  • #378,242
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:36pm Feb 2, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting redsword11
stop loss and BE



for example stop 35 pips, when +35 close 2/3, leave stop in original position, worst outcome +1/3
I went through a phase of closing 50% at +20 and leaving hard stop in which seemed to work OK, will have a long think about it...
  • #378,243
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:37pm Feb 2, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I went through a phase of closing 50% at +20 and leaving hard stop in which seemed to work OK, will have a long think about it...

I like thirds.
  • #378,244
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:38pm Feb 2, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting cloggie
Don't know, don't use waves/cycles, I am a simpler kind of guy. Price continues, I stay in, price stops, I get out.

Put your fib on all 3 bounces today and you can see how the 23.6/50 holds true for decent scalps. Have a look to at Red's thread, he likes these counters. The trick is you gotta get in within 3-6 pips of the bounce or else it is not worth it, especially if the bounce comes after only a 40 pip drop. The better bounces are the ones after the 60-80 pip moves.
yeah makes sense, and fits with what I do atm, usually using price action and tick volume for the signal... obviously within the overall context of the longer term legs, time of day, news releases, etc... It takes a lot of time and effort but you do eventually develop a feel for it...
  • #378,245
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:40pm Feb 2, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
yeah makes sense, and fits with what I do atm, usually using price action and tick volume for the signal...

Forget about volume cr@p, never seen anyone make serious money with that.

Keep in mind, don't go countering unless you have your trend trades booked, only counter as icing, not as your primary source of income.
  • #378,246
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:43pm Feb 2, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting cloggie
Forget about volume cr@p, never seen anyone make serious money with that.

Keep in mind, don't go countering unless you have your trend trades booked, only counter as icing, not as your primary source of income.
OK cheers...
  • #378,247
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:43pm Feb 2, 2011 12:43pm
Another Brake of Trend line 1h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: another trend brake.JPG Size: 46 KB
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #378,248
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:45pm Feb 2, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting cloggie
I like thirds.
third means? third bounce?
  • #378,249
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:46pm Feb 2, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting Shah22
third means? third bounce?

As in 1/3. On a small counter I will take of 2/3 and let 1/3 run, on a large counter I will take 1/3 at 20, 1/3 at 30 and let the rest run, on trend trades I scale in/scale out using a bit more complex lotsizes.
  • #378,250
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:46pm Feb 2, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting cloggie
You moved your stop a bit too early, she has a bit left in her still. On these retraces keep the 50 fib to hand and move your stop to the 23.6 as soon as you are in profit. Bounces of a treble down are 90% of the time good for 30
can you explain this part please cloggie?

i checked the tf's and can see that there were 3/4 bounces on h4 around 1.3846....is that what you mean?

is it like 3 retests of a level and no break, trade the other way?
  • #378,251
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:48pm Feb 2, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting red2010
can you explain this part please cloggie?

i checked the tf's and can see that there were 3/4 bounces on h4 around 1.3846....is that what you mean?

is it like 3 retests of a level and no break, trade the other way?
My reading is third impulse leg but could be wrong...
  • #378,252
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:48pm Feb 2, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting red2010
can you explain this part please cloggie?

i checked the tf's and can see that there were 3/4 bounces on h4 around 1.3846....is that what you mean?

is it like 3 retests of a level and no break, trade the other way?

It's a lot simpler then that, EURUSD moves in 20 pip blocks, so a treble is 60 pips, a bounce of that is good for 30.

Simples.

Look at today, works like a charm. It gives you a guide to work from, a framework as a starter then use PA to finetune.

Get in on a decent entry on a trend trade, get moving 20 pips on a good momentum bar and she is good for 40, move your stop to 20 and take part of, see what happens at 40 and judge if you gonna get a treble, move your stop to 40 and take a further part of, at 60 keep your finger on the trigger either let it run or remove the last bit of your trade, job done.

Start seeing prices in chunks and not as tick data and the bigger picture will become a lot easier for you.
  • #378,253
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:49pm Feb 2, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting cloggie
It's a lot simpler then that, EURUSD moves in 20 pip blocks, so a treble is 60 pips, a bounce of that is good for 30.

Simples.

Look at today, works like a charm. It gives you a guide to work from, a framework as a starter then use PA to finetune.
got it, so basically it relates back to fibo ratios...
  • #378,254
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:54pm Feb 2, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting cloggie
It's a lot simpler then that, EURUSD moves in 20 pip blocks, so a treble is 60 pips, a bounce of that is good for 30.

Simples.

Look at today, works like a charm. It gives you a guide to work from, a framework as a starter then use PA to finetune.

Get in on a decent entry on a trend trade, get moving 20 pips on a good momentum bar and she is good for 40, move your stop to 20 and take part of, see what happens at 40 and judge if you gonna get a treble, move your stop to 40 and take a further part of, at 60 keep your finger on the trigger either...

Look at today from 0730:

40 down, 30 up, 60 down, 40 up, 60 down, 30 up. Sorted. Breaking it down into chunks makes a day look a little simpler and more manageable.
  • #378,255
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:56pm Feb 2, 2011 12:56pm
Quoting cloggie
Look at today from 0730:

40 down, 30 up, 60 down, 40 up, 60 down, 30 up. Sorted. Breaking it down into chunks makes a day look a little simpler and more manageable.
bottom line, keep it simples...
  • #378,256
  • Feb 2, 2011 12:58pm Feb 2, 2011 12:58pm
stars aint lined up yet. but a long signal may be getting ripe. maybe 55/61. its got room to go down.. but its up to the sig.. atm 70.. it could be any time. with blood im being extra cautious with entries. cause we could fall. below 55/61 is not a good place to be long with a few closes.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #378,257
  • Feb 2, 2011 1:00pm Feb 2, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting cloggie
It's a lot simpler then that, EURUSD moves in 20 pip blocks, so a treble is 60 pips, a bounce of that is good for 30.

Simples.

Look at today, works like a charm. It gives you a guide to work from, a framework as a starter then use PA to finetune.

Get in on a decent entry on a trend trade, get moving 20 pips on a good momentum bar and she is good for 40, move your stop to 20 and take part of, see what happens at 40 and judge if you gonna get a treble, move your stop to 40 and take a further part of, at 60 keep your finger on the trigger either...
thanks for that

yea ive seen you say before how it moves 20 pips or so at a time. i guess the key to this is identifying the momentum bar

we had one bar on m15 move down 30 pips today (around midday UK time) would it be better to let this bar close first, or once you see it moving 20 pips or more, to get in?
  • #378,258
  • Feb 2, 2011 1:00pm Feb 2, 2011 1:00pm
i m long: 3777
tp: 38
sl: 375
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #378,259
  • Feb 2, 2011 1:00pm Feb 2, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
stars aint lined up yet. but a long signal may be getting ripe. maybe 55/61
was just looking at 58 based on channel (that will fall the longer we take to reach it)...
  • #378,260
  • Feb 2, 2011 1:06pm Feb 2, 2011 1:06pm
Quoting red2010
thanks for that

yea ive seen you say before how it moves 20 pips or so at a time. i guess the key to this is identifying the momentum bar

we had one bar on m15 move down 30 pips today (around midday UK time) would it be better to let this bar close first, or once you see it moving 20 pips or more, to get it?

I use the M1/3/5/10 for my entries, using the M15 will get you to the party too late. A move with the trend rarely moves just 20 pips, unless it is the retrace of the counter and not the mainmove. You can never enter a counter on the M15, guaranteed to get stopped out.
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