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Look mum no charts!

  • #21
  • Feb 1, 2011 3:07pm Feb 1, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting HiddenGap
This is from one of my favorite books on trading, The Adam Theory Of Markets or What Matters Is Profits, by Welles Wilder.

[color=blue]" One of the greatest professional traders I ever met we'll call Robert. Robert would take very large sums of money out of the markets week-in and week-out. When I was a green trader starting out in Chicago I had the good fortune to be able to trade next to him for awhile. We were 'upstairs' traders; we traded from an office in the building next to the Chicago Board of Trade. And one morning, about a week...
I avoid forming an opinion on the news like a plague.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #22
  • Feb 1, 2011 3:11pm Feb 1, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting traider
I avoid forming an opinion on the news like a plague.
That is the theory I would follow any day of the week.
  • #23
  • Feb 1, 2011 3:17pm Feb 1, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting Scotty B
Just something I find interesting. Goldman said on the 13th of January that they were long the EU to 1.37, in a follow up article on Reuters they reported closing the long and waiting on the sidelines, but names targets of 1.4, 1.45, and 1.5 within a year. I'll be watching it for sure.
I think I read that they then changed their target from 1.37 to 1.4 while they were long, then just at the end of last week they closed them out, supposedly before or on that drop to 1.3570. I don't know... not hearing much about "sovereign" bids though today also.
  • #24
  • Feb 1, 2011 3:38pm Feb 1, 2011 3:38pm
On the topic of big bank recommandations. I have 3 years of daily buy/sell ratings from one.

Here's your equity line when applying their EUR/USD recommendations:

Y-Axis: profit in pips
X-Axis: time in days

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/bank_eurusd.png

Applying all of their recommendations (they analyze all the major pairs) is much less encouraging. They did extremely well during the late 2008 financial collapse, but they were mostly flat before/after that:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/bank_all.png

USD/JPY backtest:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/bank_usdjpy.png

And here's a simple linear combination with -1/0/1 ratios (think 7bit co-integration thread). But I won't be trading this since it's most likely curve-fitted:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/190212/ff/bank_synthetic.png

All the back-tests took into account the spread and some slippage.
  • #25
  • Feb 1, 2011 3:49pm Feb 1, 2011 3:49pm
Very interesting post, Adal. Food for thought. Thanks for sharing.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #26
  • Feb 1, 2011 4:00pm Feb 1, 2011 4:00pm
One system I'm trialling for fun is totally random. I have four time frames on my spreadsheet, two for the Euro, two for the GBP, all around the london open. 7am - 10am.

I open my spreadsheet, and have the =rand() calcualtion in four fields next to the corresponding pair. If the rand figure > .5 LONG, < .5 SHORT, buy on open of the hourly bar.

I have PT 50 pips, Stop 25 pips. I've been trialling since Jan 3rd on $10000 with 5% spread across the four pairs eg. First trade would 5 pips each pair.

As the account increases decreases, I change the pip size accordingly.

Since the PAPER trial, the system is approx $500 up for the month, with one pair 61% win rate, unfortunatley one pair has 15% win rate. Overall across the four pairs is 36.5% win rate.

With 1:2 R/R it is still profitable at the moment. It is really a bit of fun that takes two minutes a night to check.

No charts, just a silly rand() calc in a spreadsheet. Hope this was what you were talking about..
  • #27
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:02pm Feb 1, 2011 6:02pm
Monroe,

Here are the links. Google usually lists the Goldman recommendations in their news feed on Google Trends. Look at the dates, look at the links to Reuters.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=long+euro

Adal,

I don't think I'll ever get one past you. Thanks sir, yet again.
  • #28
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:04pm Feb 1, 2011 6:04pm
Adal,

One question about your studies. How many recommendations is your Euro plot based on?
  • #29
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:20pm Feb 1, 2011 6:20pm
Quoting Hova
Well, i agree, but i've seen too many myfxbook accounts doing good, until the big hit, then they vanished.

We'll see...doing it good for 2 years is nice, but why is he fading it from public ? No word about this in his thread at myfxbook
I guess it's because he didn't find his feet until April 2009. I have seen other older accounts like this. Rough in the beginning then stabilisation. Let us not forget that 2008 was the GFC and even the professionals were knocked for six.

But I know what you mean, I have also seen too many myfxbook accounts vanish! But, as Cindy said, it's not his performance we are meant to be commenting on, it's his style of trading and I've already been John McEnroe'd by Cindy and it ain't purdy.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #30
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:29pm Feb 1, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting HiddenGap
This is from one of my favorite books on trading, The Adam Theory Of Markets or What Matters Is Profits, by Welles Wilder.

Personally, I can't trade like this, but I do think there is an undelying truth in here. I truly believe that there are some successful traders simply doing this.
Yeah, that's great, thanks for that. A nice reminder that we should all get back to basics. I've been trying to do that a lot more lately. Simplify. I like simple.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #31
  • Feb 1, 2011 6:38pm Feb 1, 2011 6:38pm
Quoting Scotty B
Adal,

One question about your studies. How many recommendations is your Euro plot based on?
In the euro plot there are 130 trades. Average profit of 35 pips/trade.

The backtest is simple: close the old position and open a new one when the daily stance of the bank changes.

Inserted Code
2009-03-01     0
2009-03-02    -1
2009-03-03    -1
2009-03-04    -1
2009-03-05    -1
2009-03-06    -1
2009-03-07    -1
2009-03-08    -1
2009-03-09    -1
2009-03-10    -1
2009-03-11     0
2009-03-12     0
2009-03-13     1
2009-03-14     1
2009-03-15     1
2009-03-16     0
So the orders would be: sell EUR/USD on March 2, close position on March 11, buy EUR/USD on March 13, close position on March 16.

I took care not to act on future information - in this case trading before I had a daily stance (for example to open position at 09:00 when the daily stance is available only at 12:00).
  • #32
  • Edited 9:04pm Feb 1, 2011 8:36pm | Edited 9:04pm
Quoting Patience
This sort of reminds me of a bloke on myfxbook and how he trades....

Hey, i was snooping to find his method, found his blog, http://www.joinyfx.com/myblogen/?paged=2 saying this:

"In all the signals, there was once lvl 4 risk trade in USDCHF and once lvl3 risk trade in GBPUSD. other pairs didn’t come out a risk trade that more than lvl 2."

So he is using some variant of martingale!
It makes sense. He talks lot about casino stuff, trading "small" etc. and talks about win rates. Makes sense now.
  • #33
  • Edited 6:36am Feb 2, 2011 1:28am | Edited 6:36am
Queensland expecting a category 5 Hurricane to hit the coast tonight at 11pm Australian time.

The worst ever on record in Australia. This follows just 2 weeks after the worst flooding on record devastated the area.

Short AUD? Lets try it at 1.0114 SL at 1.0155 and leave it open until tomorrows London session
Attached Image
Time hides Nothing
  • #34
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:14am Feb 2, 2011 8:14am
Up 40 Going to BE the Cyclone should have reached QLD and be in full force right now. Hope the people stay safe.
Time hides Nothing
  • #35
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:39am Feb 2, 2011 8:39am
is this a cyclone trading thread ??

but yes, i agree the idea behind this thread is truly professional thinking.
  • #36
  • Feb 2, 2011 10:15am Feb 2, 2011 10:15am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Up 40 Going to BE the Cyclone should have reached QLD and be in full force right now. Hope the people stay safe.
Yes, I second this. AU doesn't need anymore crazy weather this year. God bless Australia.
  • #37
  • Feb 2, 2011 6:02pm Feb 2, 2011 6:02pm
Long aussie from 1.0100, using nothing but this window

I do have 1 and 5 minute charts open to keep myself in perspective.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au_t&s.png Size: 6 KB
  • #38
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:58am Feb 3, 2011 12:58am
Quoting sebohsj
Long aussie from 1.0100, using nothing but this window

I do have 1 and 5 minute charts open to keep myself in perspective.
and what is that interesting contraption?
Time hides Nothing
  • #39
  • Edited 3:02am Feb 3, 2011 2:40am | Edited 3:02am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Up 40 Going to BE the Cyclone should have reached QLD and be in full force right now. Hope the people stay safe.
Well interestingly enough as soon as the news broke in the morning the first reports were that it wasn't as bad as they were expecting. At that point it would have been a good idea to close the trade as the uncertainty had now vanished from the situation. But seeing as I originally said I'd hold it till London I did and got stopped out at BE as the market edged back up.

Just demo of course I don usually trade this way.

Interesting though how the value depreciated through the unknown and then reverted back to its original value after this perceived devaluation had been quelled. As it happened no one really knew what was happening during the storm as power was out all throughout the areas concerned.

Makes me think - maybe there's a good strategy in short selling uncertainty. Not necessarily natural distastes (pretty sick way to make a living there) but financial/ fundamental natural disasters if you like.
Time hides Nothing
  • #40
  • Feb 3, 2011 4:17am Feb 3, 2011 4:17am
Quoting sebohsj
Long aussie from 1.0100, using nothing but this window

I do have 1 and 5 minute charts open to keep myself in perspective.
Hi sebohsj!

Can you explain what that window is please, it looks interesting.
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