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  • #377,161
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:36am Feb 1, 2011 8:36am
Quoting Sunsi
Does anyone have any thoughts on PMI news?

My thoughts:
Good news -> Risk on -> EU up.

Anyone agree / Disagree ?
hmm i take it simple :

good news = bigger than forecast = good for usdx = eu down

: p
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #377,162
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:37am Feb 1, 2011 8:37am
i also stay in bull mode. dollar index has some room eur looks good cable even better is aussi allso on the run. usd sesion will pop the eur to 3820. maybe a option barrier keep us in th range till ism.
  • #377,163
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:41am Feb 1, 2011 8:41am
Quoting PhAnTi'
hmm i take it simple :

good news = bigger than forecast = good for usdx = eu down

: p
Multilple times, good news boost risk, and stocks, which make the USD go down.. Don`t you agree?
And with some risk taken of the table because of Egypt, I view it that way. But we will see soon enough
  • #377,164
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:42am Feb 1, 2011 8:42am
Quoting Sunsi
good news boost risk, and stocks, which make the USD go down..

Yup
  • #377,165
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:44am Feb 1, 2011 8:44am
Quoting PhAnTi'
hmm i take it simple :

good news = bigger than forecast = good for usdx = eu down

: p
that's what I was thinking until cloggie explained otherwise.
I've been following it for a while and it seems cloggie is right.
  • #377,166
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:45am Feb 1, 2011 8:45am
Quoting Sunsi
Multilple times, good news boost risk, and stocks, which make the USD go down.. Don`t you agree?
And with some risk taken of the table because of Egypt, I view it that way. But we will see soon enough
ok,but what do you mean by bost risk?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #377,167
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:47am Feb 1, 2011 8:47am
Quoting lev1987
that's what I was thinking until cloggie explained otherwise.
I've been following it for a while and it seems cloggie is right.

Always trade the risk.
  • #377,168
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:49am Feb 1, 2011 8:49am
Quoting paul1
lot of short bias ,but there is at triple bottom at 3730 .If that breaks potential short trade but until proved otherwise you have 50% better chance bullish .We had 2 day retrace and broke high on daily so at moment not much sign of a top anywere yet.
Cloggie short so i'am probably wrong lol.
The KEY now is market perception. Things are holding in the Middle East.
ISM rumor is above 60. EUR/USD looking to maybe break 1.3786 daily high of November 22. Debt problems in Europe under control.

Everything is perfect for Dow at 12,000 and EUR/USD moving towards 1.3800. Depending what happens between now and NOON a direction should unfold. I am looking to go short. The question is when. The PERCEPTION is not the reality. Be very careful around here.

No Call needed for the moment since it needs to test 1.3800 or odds it will move back. The reaction to the news and option expiry at 10:00 AM and how Europe leaves things. There is ADP at 8:15 AM on Wednesday. A bad NFP on Friday will send Dow down and EUR/USD and then there is the weekend with the Wild Card still Mubarak.

The next 15 minutes will be interesting. Do nothing if not sure and no person can be sure at the moment. Good trading today.
  • #377,169
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:50am Feb 1, 2011 8:50am
Quoting PhAnTi'
ok,but what do you mean by bost risk?
actually if you think about, it makes sense.
good news means economy is getting better so instead of keeping money in safe banking plans delivering low interest (low risk) people are willing to invest in higher risk plans such as equities.
I guess it has an negative effect on money supply because in order to extend money supply - money should be kept in banks so they can give loans.
  • #377,170
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:51am Feb 1, 2011 8:51am
Quoting PhAnTi'
ok,but what do you mean by bost risk?
Make investors more likely to take risky bets. Which basicly means that they but they money on stocks etc, and not in safe haven currencies like USD.
  • #377,171
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:53am Feb 1, 2011 8:53am
Quoting lev1987
actually if you think about it it makes sense, good news means economy is getting better so instead of keeping money in safe banking plans delivering low interest (low risk) people are willing to invest in higher risk plans such as equities.

You got it, and it works perfectly as the interest rates are flat across the majors, once one of the biggies start increasing rates, then the risk picture changes slightly as you need to weigh up the reward for higher risk investments vs lower risk higher rate currencies, look for example at the UJ trade that has been in play for 4 years.

As long as you follow the risk and thereby the money flow you will stay on the right side of the markets.
  • #377,172
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:54am Feb 1, 2011 8:54am
Quoting Robert99
The KEY now is market perception. Things are holding in the Middle East.
ISM rumor is above 60. EUR/USD looking to maybe break 1.3786 daily high of November 22. Debt problems in Europe under control.

Everything is perfect for Dow at 12,000 and EUR/USD moving towards 1.3800. Depending what happens between now and NOON a direction should unfold. I am looking to go short. The question is when. The PERCEPTION is not the reality. Be very careful around here.

No Call needed for the moment since it needs to test 1.3800 or odds it will move back....
I agree but this is a perfect setup for bull and bear stop hunt .
Be cautious take our stops above 75 and below 30 before the true direction if there is one.
Short term dont trust the first up or down move until a confirmed break.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #377,173
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:54am Feb 1, 2011 8:54am
usd is percieved as a safe haven currency, so if perceived risk increases then risk aversion flows move towards usd as was witnessed on friday...
  • #377,174
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:55am Feb 1, 2011 8:55am
Quoting FibbinArchie
usd is percieved as a safe haven currency, so if perceived risk increases then risk aversion flows move towards usd as was witnessed on friday...

Don't see it as risk, see it as appetite or the lack thereof in risk and it will become a bit clearer to follow the money.

When I say risk on, I mean there is an increase in the appetite for risk, so dollar down.
  • #377,175
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:56am Feb 1, 2011 8:56am
Quoting cloggie
You got it, and it works perfectly as the interest rates are flat across the majors, once one of the biggies start increasing rates, then the risk picture changes slightly as you need to weigh up the reward for higher risk investments vs lower risk higher rate currencies, look for example at the UJ trade that has been in play for 4 years.

As long as you follow the risk and thereby the money flow you will stay on the right side of the markets.
sorry but what's UJ?
what about the other thing I've said regarding the money supply - does it make sense?
  • #377,176
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:57am Feb 1, 2011 8:57am
Quoting cloggie
Don't see it as risk, see it as appetite or the lack thereof in risk and it will become a bit clearer to follow the money.
yeah, makes the concept easier to grasp, and interest rate changes effect majors' due to carry trades...
  • #377,177
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:57am Feb 1, 2011 8:57am
Quoting lev1987
sorry but what's UJ?
what about the other thing I've said regarding the money supply - does it make sense?

UJ, USDJPY, money supply is a different story and only applies to a certain extent.
  • #377,178
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:58am Feb 1, 2011 8:58am
Quoting FibbinArchie
yeah, makes the concept easier to grasp, and interest rate changes effect majors' due to carry trades...

Spot on, that is in a nutshell how to judge the news and the resultant moneyflows. A second part is the weighing of the 2 ugly sisters as I call it, as momentarily the risk will not hide the ugly sister race and then the comparison value takes over.
  • #377,179
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:58am Feb 1, 2011 8:58am
Quoting lev1987
sorry but what's UJ?
what about the other thing I've said regarding the money supply - does it make sense?
dollar yen, usd/jpy...
  • #377,180
  • Feb 1, 2011 8:58am Feb 1, 2011 8:58am
Quoting PayTheLimit
for me 3728/29 is still key, a close under there and 3695/3704 is possible as is 3655/70. If it holds we could see 3768/81 again, and then 3818/28....good luck out there, I'm off...
same...
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