EURUSD

Good morning guys. Hope you all are doing great.

1 early test trade: Long 1.3723, SL 13 pips.

its so far has not worked like planned. but in recent days it has worked for mostly 74 pips + 3714 ans 3693.7 is what needs to be broken

Actually price on EURUSD is at a important level .
Let's take a notice that this level is confirmed by Fibo and in the past this level was respected by price.

I've got a big zone of resistance 3728/48, 3785 first target if we get through there....3658/68 first support...

Well, I used it to call an audible for handling Interactive's 18 minute shutdown at 00:00E. 22.5 had been touched 12 times, and 27.5 twice, and I didn't like the smell of that. Worked nicely for that time frame.

million-man-march should be starting anytime now if not already started ...

and isn't most of Asia on Holiday? should be some volatility or exaggerated biased moves tonight.

if we make it 3693/93.7 may not want to give up easily.. but if it does.. we will take whats given

We were and are re-estab'ed long since a little before 05E. But I'm not buying the "all is rosy and the $ sucks" theory; it's just more of the Teflon EUR. Things just ain't right.

not many movers are gonna buy here till 3762 is touched.

it's Winter time, storms coming in ... and you want how many coats of this fine Chinese lead based paint again ... on your California, circa 1955, townhome ???

I see what you mean, there early EST on 27th, yes? The way this thing is trading, the Gulf Stream would probably have to stop or Iceland erupt and plunge the continent into darkness to keep it away from there. We'll see by the morning, maybe.

Dual coats. But could you remove the asbestos siding for me first?

Euro's Immunity To Egyptian Bug


By Nicholas Hastings
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro is proving remarkably immune to the political turmoil in Egypt.

To be sure the single currency was knocked a bit lower by the rush into safe havens last week as demonstrators took to the streets in the hopes of bringing down the government of President Hosni Mubarak.

But as the protests enter their seventh day and Moody's downgrades Egypt debt, the euro remains resilient. Despite rising crude oil prices, the currency shows little sign of even testing the lower end of its recent trading range at about $1.34.



See the euro's limited slide against the dollar:

http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/5374



Some of this euro resilience could just be market optimism that the turmoil in the Middle East won't spread to the region's major oil producers. If anything, a regime change that brings democracy to Egypt could prove positive for global market sentiment in the long run.

However, the euro's performance may have more to do with a decline in its own sensitivity to risk as yield differentials have continued to move in the single currency's favor.

This could accelerate given rising hopes that European Union leaders are now preparing a longer-term solution to the sovereign debt crisis that has undermined investor confidence in the euro for so long.

According to Forex.com, the correlation between the euro/dollar pair and the VIX index, which measures equity market volatility, has fallen in recent months after reaching a high in June.

This coincides with a shift in the yield differential between the euro zone and the U.S. in favor of the euro, with the swap rate spread reaching a two-year high last week.

The trend could be reinforced if tensions in the Middle East drive U.S. Treasury yields lower, as investors seek safety in U.S. government bonds, and if the European Central Bank maintains its hawkish stance.

Investors are already braced for ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to turn up the hawkish volume after data Monday showed that euro-zone inflation rose to 2.4% in January, higher than the 2.3% that had been expected.

European officials may also be contributing to the euro's resilience, with indications that they might be overhauling the rescue plans for peripheral debtors in trouble, which would extend the maturity of the loans to Greece and Ireland.

If so, this could further unwind market fears that a sovereign default is inevitable and help drive yield spreads for the peripherals down again.

Perhaps even more telling of growing confidence in the euro, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that speculative long positions in the euro in the week to last Tuesday rose to their highest level in six months.

This rise took place before the really big demonstrations in Egypt, but there is little sign from the euro's performance since then that these levels would have been eroded seriously.


Bloomberg TNI FRX POV
Reuters USD/DJ
Thomson P/1066 or P/1074


February 01, 2011 01:45 ET (06:45 GMT)

EUR/USD: The bearish reversal day from Friday has now been negated with the market racing back above 1.3700. While we would not get overly bullish at current levels, a break and close back above 1.3760 should open the door for a fresh upside extension towards 1.4000 into the mid-week...

Sure, let me just slip on my protective, imported from India, gloves & mask and ... oh wait ... you didn't sell your 1955 California town-home ... ???

Oh don't worry, the next round to sell will be up soon before you know it ... & then you can join the crowd and pay cash for a cheap but equilateral home in Texas and be looked upon as one of those 'rich outsiders' ...

But yes, 2 coats after it stops snowing & I eat my Mercury filled Shrimp from the Golf Coast ...

yep ..unless it dt..

3738.4 is the swing high close of the move (1hr), usually a mofu in and of itself....

http://gyazo.com/ef3a387ad3141ec6dc2b48273bad87c2.png

Now, let's not everyone get all wildly bullish on this. Gravity defying tricks are done with smoke and mirrors, and mirrors can crack.

EDIT: @mercy: good Bloomberg background piece. Thanks.

And bullish sentiment for the day on our hands.

Buy around the strong support at 1.3700 for 80 pips. Set a SL of 40 (intra-day traders)

OR

Sell from around the 1.3820 level for 60 pips setting a SL of 50.

(Note: Yesterday's short didn't quite take off owing to the geo-political situation in the middle-east. We do not trade unless we have a good setup to do so, basically to avoid a losing trade).