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  • #376,621
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:03pm Jan 31, 2011 7:03pm
cny pmi marginally worse than forecast...
  • #376,622
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:07pm Jan 31, 2011 7:07pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
yesterday's range from current level...

asia hardly ever makes a meaningful break of the previous day's range, other than to run stops...
sorry not yesterday's high, Friday's high...
  • #376,623
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:11pm Jan 31, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
lots of scope, thinking it could be tight and rangey tho', no follow through on sell off atm...
if it aint broke it aint broke.. #374636
whats gonna happen when these broke kids rioting want something to eat? commodities up across the board...20% unemployed.

china india and all the others...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #376,624
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:16pm Jan 31, 2011 7:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
if it aint broke it aint broke.. #374636
whats gonna happen when these broke kids rioting want something to eat? commodities up across the board... china india and all the others...
totally aside from fundamentals, I can see 2011 being resumption of longer term downtrend for EU.

EZ debt problems are bubbling away just under the surface they've not disappeared into thin air, and I can see FOMC potentially scaling back QE...

Re. 3760, lots of technical measures pointing to that area...
  • #376,625
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:24pm Jan 31, 2011 7:24pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
totally aside from fundamentals, I can see 2011 being resumption of longer term downtrend for EU.

EZ debt problems are bubbling away just under the surface they've not disappeared into thin air, and I can see FOMC potentially scaling back QE...

Re. 3760, lots of technical measures pointing to that area...
3776 spike could happen to. but i bet it closes below 3761.

the country is basically shut down. that means food aint moving like normal.. hungry people will eat. and be pissed getting it. they are planning a big march.. with a million
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #376,626
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:30pm Jan 31, 2011 7:30pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
totally aside from fundamentals, I can see 2011 being resumption of longer term downtrend for EU.

EZ debt problems are bubbling away just under the surface they've not disappeared into thin air, and I can see FOMC potentially scaling back QE...

Re. 3760, lots of technical measures pointing to that area...
I wish I could agree with you but there are a few STRONG forces at work here. Ill be simplistic in listing them.

1) The Retail Crowd is Long Dollars - This Crowd ALWAYS seem to get squeezed and rung out before a reversal of any sort can occur. Look at any pair where the retail section (us) are net long dollars, what does the graph say? - SQUEEZE.

2) Euro Hanchos/Hotheads speaking up the euro at every possible corner. Sarkozi : "speculators betting against the euro must be prepared to suffer big losses, Germany and myself will not the euro fail/falter" - shit like that messes with the minds of the big guys (market movers)

3) Lack of support from the greenback issuers. They've given the ok to sell the dollar en masse, no verbal support for the dollar whatsoever. In fact, Tim geithner should be your worst enemy right now if your long dollars.


4) The Inflation ghost: drunk off the euro, the ecb swears inflation will top 300% before the year is out and must raise rates back to 4% to deal with it.


Lastly... the market is just plain ole' greedy at the moment. Look at the carry pairs - they are well bouyed, no drastic movement to offset the positive interest earned.

We will reverse when it doesn't become profitable anymore for the big guys to push up the yuro, i.e. when Bulls become increasingly confident against their bets on the dollar - i.e. Long Volume > Short Volume.


Just my 0.000002 cents.
  • #376,627
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:30pm Jan 31, 2011 7:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
3776 spike could happen to. but i bet it close below 3761.
keeps trying, I shorted from 53 Friday on the first drive, moved sl to b/e then was stopped for about 2 pips on the second drive, annoying but that's Forex, just gotta dust off and look for the next set up, nothing wrong with scalping both sides in the meantime...
  • #376,628
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:32pm Jan 31, 2011 7:32pm
[quote=FibbinArchie;4360156]totally aside from fundamentals, I can see 2011 being resumption of longer term downtrend for EU.


do you really have guts to hold a short position for a year long?
  • #376,629
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:32pm Jan 31, 2011 7:32pm
Fundamentally i been shocked eur hasn't begun a slow decline yet.

Also it looks like the downward channel is being respected now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yes3.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #376,630
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:34pm Jan 31, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting Warwick
I wish I could agree with you but there are a few STRONG forces at work here....
your first point is more likely the main reason for current percieved strength in this pair... and remember CBs are the smart money in FX...
  • #376,631
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:37pm Jan 31, 2011 7:37pm
[quote=yakuzaking;4360180]
Quoting FibbinArchie
totally aside from fundamentals, I can see 2011 being resumption of longer term downtrend for EU.


do you really have guts to hold a short position for a year long?
I'll hold if I can get a good position entry, it's down to the entry tho' as I'm not a fan of risk, I usually move to b/e asap. which isn't always the best strategy, maybe something I need to work on...
  • #376,632
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:38pm Jan 31, 2011 7:38pm
[quote=yakuzaking;4360180]
Quoting FibbinArchie
totally aside from fundamentals, I can see 2011 being resumption of longer term downtrend for EU.


do you really have guts to hold a short position for a year long?
when this parade gonna be over,make sure you will have enough margin for your longs
  • #376,633
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:39pm Jan 31, 2011 7:39pm
Quoting Brand0n1
Fundamentally i been shocked eur hasn't begun a slow decline yet.

Also it looks like the downward channel is being respected now.

Attachment

Attachment
just look your daily. last 3 bars pattern..

btw,

you can also have a look at monthly Cable last 3 bar pattern..
  • #376,634
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:41pm Jan 31, 2011 7:41pm
Quoting Warwick
I wish I could agree with you but there are a few STRONG forces at work here....
i wish everyone was saying this. ... a good time to short. is when all are bullish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #376,635
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:42pm Jan 31, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting Piters
just look your daily. last 3 bars pattern..

btw,

you can also have a look at monthly Cable last 3 bar pattern..
reminds me of Oct last year but on a smaller scale...
  • #376,636
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:47pm Jan 31, 2011 7:47pm
Options related barrier at 137.55 and above.
  • #376,637
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:53pm Jan 31, 2011 7:53pm
Quoting Purple
Options related barrier at 137.55 and above.
expiry?
  • #376,638
  • Jan 31, 2011 7:58pm Jan 31, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting Piters
just look your daily. last 3 bars pattern..

btw,

you can also have a look at monthly Cable last 3 bar pattern..
I dont put tons of stock in candlestick patterns but what are the last 3 daily? some kind of bullish engulfing?
  • #376,639
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:07pm Jan 31, 2011 8:07pm
who's buying off this crappy little tl?????
  • #376,640
  • Jan 31, 2011 8:14pm Jan 31, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
expiry?
I'm looking at my option chains Feb11 on EC expiring 2/4. OptInt on 1.4 and 1.41 are both high indicating someone has made a large bet, or hedge, on the Euro hitting 1.42 by 2/4/11.

1.37 is moderate or weak.
Don't Panic. Stay With You're Group.
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