Hypothesis on Currency Direction

I want to work on trading currencies based on an individual currency's direction, so to speak.

So, lets take EURUSD for example. We all know that EUR in this case is the 'base' currency and USD is the 'counter' currency.

So, could we not say for just this pair alone that when this pair is:
Long: USD is rising and EUR is falling
Short: EUR us rising and USD is falling
FOR THIS PAIR ONLY.

W/ that in mind, we could, in theory, figure out what the other currency pairs are doing, in the term of points, and figure out an 'overall' of whether the individual currency is long/short.

What prompted this was this article: http://articles.mql4.com/422
But when I look at the code, I see he/she is using Moving Averages to figure individual currencies. That doesn't sound right to me if you're trying to figure out what each individual currency is doing.

Thoughts?

UPDATE (2/1/2011):
I've attached the indicator of what I was trying to do. I'm using it in trade decisions.

It's based on raw price.

HERE,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=209486

Don't make trading unnecessarily complex. Too many people try to figure out how or why something moves, where it's going to go to, but that's making things way too difficult.

If you look at charts long enough, you'll start to see certain patterns that happen over and over again. Learn to recognize such patterns, create a plan to take advantage of such patterns, and wait for the patterns to occur. Then pull the trigger without thinking twice, manage correctly, make $$$.

Rinse and repeat. Keep it simple. You don't have to know a thing about where a currency is going to go in order to trade it profitably. Let the analysts on TV do the complex analytical reasoning.

Just my 2 cents...

Thanks for the URL.

Thanks. Doing the "pattern" thing now, not too successful, but trying.

BTW, on a daily chart, how much data do you want to be able to see to be looking for patterns? I'm trying to keep a year on w/out scrolling backwards.

Keep working on the "pattern" thing. If you keep at it, sooner or later pieces of the puzzle will start to fall in their place.

As for how far to zoom in or out, depends on what kind of patterns you're looking for. For instance, if you look to trade "macro" patterns like wedges, head & shoulders, that kind of stuff, you'd want to zoom out a bit. Have a look at the threads of e.g. BillyRayValentine, or Shahab8b. They trade using s/r levels and "macro" patterns, and they almost always use a more zoomed out chart to see the relevant data for their method of trading.

On the other hand, if you're looking to trade "micro" patterns, like e.g. candle stick formations, you'll likely want to have a more zoomed in chart, because you're more interested in what's going on at this moment. Have a look at the threads of Jankone, Trade Price, and Vantage. They trade short term candle stick formations, and use much more zoomed in charts than BRV or Shahab.

The most important thing is finding out what kind of trading -this also includes which time frame- works the best for you, and build further on that.

Thanks DHB.

What I've noticed isn't really pattern related as much as 'wave' related over a 2 year span. It's interesting but looking at prices! Weird.