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  • #375,581
  • Jan 30, 2011 11:52am Jan 30, 2011 11:52am
Quoting pinkiaiii
Excuse me for being rude but wtf Egypt has to do with dollar or euro ?Its worthless piece of land in Africans continent where people go for holidays that's it.And if your forgetting history Africa is full of countries with civil wars raging all over the places and strict security is advisable everywhere nowadays,whats next euro goes up if few tourists get lost in Kongo ? If two events happen at the same time it doesnt mean they are related.

You may want to have a look at google maps, the EU would be fecked without Egypt.

I am still not convinced the euro sell of is entirely Egypt related, unlike the mass media. This sellof was in the cards technically and triggered by the failure of the techs breaking 3571. Crap unemployment and a lower GDP set the course when the fundies and techs were pushing in the same direction.
  • #375,582
  • Jan 30, 2011 11:53am Jan 30, 2011 11:53am
Quoting lev1987
mate, so what's your feeling for tomorrow? Fueling shorts? or bulls might have a chance?
maybe a retrace to 3750. but i guess 3750 should hold.

we got several things like China, egypt, NFP , monthly close etc which cant be rated clear enough....

gonna be a nice but trickie week
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #375,583
  • Jan 30, 2011 11:53am Jan 30, 2011 11:53am
Quoting gatorinla
close enough for a grenade. if you swing for a bigger tf.. much lower

I have been watching this for months and have a few setups/levels I will need to start a very long term position trade that should pay out very handsomely. I am looking at the monthly for my trigger which also played out pip perfect, on the montly we have not seen a trigger like this for 7 years. And again the retrace was respected pip perfect at 4281, I now need confirmation for this bounce of 2872 for a seriously nice position trade. This month respected the 61.8 fib fan perfectly on the retrace, now watching what develops from here on out.

But this is of no interest to this thread, more interesting is the constant screaming long-short-long based on the M1/M5
  • #375,584
  • Jan 30, 2011 11:54am Jan 30, 2011 11:54am
Quoting gatorinla
im sure he's doing fine. he knows how to trade and does not need anyone's approvals here. if you use proper m/m a loss is just a part of doing business. no need to get anyone's panties in a wad. when hes long and your short, there is no need to take it personal. your best bet is to at least take the time to understand his point of view. he and many others are good traders. we do not always agree and whats happening when. but if you are not totally sold on your view and he is counter-view. you should consider, and maybe sit out....
Hey m8...well yes thanks for your response. Here is my response I made in an answer to the trader who asked where I am with my longs


Quoting T@rantula
If u watched my Live trading here, U will notice that I Projected 3750-3770. PA touched 3744 but I have scaled out @ 3733. I missed my TP for 6 points LOL

No LIVE trades afterwards except some GU scalps but I didnt post. I have been keeping updates of my trades on forum just in case people follow me.

40 pips trade call. It was all before London noon.
  • #375,585
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:16pm Jan 30, 2011 12:16pm
My view on fibre has been bullish and I thought it might go to the daily trendline(about 48), where I expected a retrace(the trend is still up LOL).

After whats happened in Egypt(risk off) and the BEOD on Friday I think I might look for good shorts next week/tonite.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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'When the facts change I change my mind' Keynes.
  • #375,586
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:18pm Jan 30, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
Excuse me for being rude but wtf Egypt has to do with dollar or euro ?Its worthless piece of land in Africans continent where people go for holidays that's it.And if your forgetting history Africa is full of countries with civil wars raging all over the places and strict security is advisable everywhere nowadays,whats next euro goes up if few tourists get lost in Kongo ? If two events happen at the same time it doesnt mean they are related.

Well said buddy. If anything the USD should be the one moving down since oil has an inverse correlation with the USD. Friday's play was pure market manipulation by the exchanges.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #375,587
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:20pm Jan 30, 2011 12:20pm
Quoting lev1987
mate, so what's your feeling for tomorrow? Fueling shorts? or bulls might have a chance?

It is a new week and I am not trading tonight. Will watch the risk sentiment closely tomorrow, eyes on es/dow/gold, and see if they are going to carry this through. PMI tomorrow, ISM on tuesday will be triggers to carry the retrace throught. Intraday I am never biased, my sell and buy button will get used both several times over the next 24 hours. I have a few triggers in mind on the hourly and H4 that will give me setups to carry some position trades for the week with a close on Friday, none of them have been hit yet and I would love for London tomorrow to give us a clear signal for the week.

Hard to judge how the market is going to feel this week, technically we are pointing down, now lets see if the fundies can give us a bit of a boost to carry Friday's change of sentiment through with some conviction.

This week risk will be the driver.
  • #375,588
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:21pm Jan 30, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting Pipmysterio
Well said buddy. If anything the USD should be the one moving down since oil has an inverse correlation with the USD. Friday's play was pure market manipulation by the exchanges.

You got that backwards USD goes up on aversion, oh and oil is driven this week by OPEC numbers, not risk. You need to understand the correlation between oil/Brent/OPEC
  • #375,589
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:26pm Jan 30, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting cloggie
I have been watching this for months and have a few setups/levels I will need to start a very long term position trade that should pay out very handsomely. I am looking at the monthly for my trigger which also played out pip perfect, on the montly we have not seen a trigger like this for 7 years. And again the retrace was respected pip perfect at 4281, I now need confirmation for this bounce of 2872 for a seriously nice position trade. This month respected the 61.8 fib fan perfectly on the retrace, now watching what develops from here on out.

But...
im gonna trade that direction but will close trades when i get a signal and just re-enter. i will counter trade scalp with strong signals.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #375,590
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:26pm Jan 30, 2011 12:26pm
just opened google earth,i know that most of oil travels in tankers(ships) and if their using some kind canal to get it to the mediteranian sea then there might be troubles if it solely belongs to the Egypt.And aswell wouldnt mind seeing oil above 150$,that way electric cars would get a proper boost.
  • #375,591
  • Edited 12:52pm Jan 30, 2011 12:27pm | Edited 12:52pm
great mofu !! can ultimately go either direction or ultimately up huge , possible . simple abcd weekly chart price action.

may be just fun , not know yet .

gator's 50% fib mofu line may decide if stays up or down to lower quadrant to have the camel hump!2116 around. lets target 1.3000 first & next this mofu line .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #375,592
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:28pm Jan 30, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting fontu
great mofu !! can ultimately go either direction or ultimately up huge , possible . simple abcd weekly chart price action.

may be just fun , not know yet .
fontu
just for the background colour =
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #375,593
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:28pm Jan 30, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting cloggie
You got that backwards USD goes up on aversion, oh and oil is driven this week by OPEC numbers, not risk. You need to understand the correlation between oil/Brent/OPEC

I don't have it backwards. I'm just saying crude oil is negatively correlated with the USD. The correlation between USD and crude oil is over -0.90. This had been a correlation spanning more than 100yrs. If crude rise normally USD should fall. It goes out of play sometimes but that's how it been for years.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #375,594
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:34pm Jan 30, 2011 12:34pm
Oanda has started trading. EUR dropping slowly and now hovering at ~1.3590.
  • #375,595
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:36pm Jan 30, 2011 12:36pm
Live rates at 2011.01.30 18:35:00 UTC
1.00 EUR=1.35919 USD
  • #375,596
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:39pm Jan 30, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting Pipmysterio
Well said buddy. If anything the USD should be the one moving down since oil has an inverse correlation with the USD. Friday's play was pure market manipulation by the exchanges.
part true - USD and commodities have inverse correlation, when the USD is weak the price of commodities will go up to fix a situation when too many dollars chasing not enough goods.

In this case oil price goes up 'cause of a crysis and not a weak USD, EURO zone is damaged by high oil prices more then US (US has oil as well) and this may support a risk factor for EUR stability. (also in case SUEZ canal is closed EURO will be damaged more then US because the path to the mid sea is closed = longer way to reach Europe)

bottom line don't forget we are trading EUR/USD and you always should think what effect current situation have on that equation.
  • #375,597
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:41pm Jan 30, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting lev1987
part true - USD and commodities have inverse correlation, when the USD is week the price of commodities will go up to fix a situation when too many dollars chasing not enough goods.

In this case oil price goes up 'cause of a crysis and not a weak USD, EURO zone is damaged by high oil prices more then US (US has oil as well) and this may support a risk factor for EUR stability.

bottom line don't forget we are trading EUR/USD and you always should think what effect current situation have on that equation.

Got ya buddy.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #375,598
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:47pm Jan 30, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
just for the background colour =
sorry , it was actually from the possible camel balls done before .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #375,599
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:47pm Jan 30, 2011 12:47pm
back to the graveyard

its a matter of when hope it will be soon over 100 dead
  • #375,600
  • Jan 30, 2011 12:50pm Jan 30, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting OldQuant
A deliberate attempt at closure of any of Malacca, Hormuz, or Suez would be considered an act of war by, among others, USA, UK, PRC and Japan....
well said!
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