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  • #375,541
  • Jan 30, 2011 5:24am Jan 30, 2011 5:24am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post4352447

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=269991

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=371419

...EU from crash ..soon
  • #375,542
  • Jan 30, 2011 5:38am Jan 30, 2011 5:38am
Quoting fontu
Ok , 3550 23.6# fib level and anything can happen in forex & hence 1.43/44 to any level possible , last it was possible 890 pips from 1.2871 when thought not.

lets see but I am with my analysis with sl in situ & so no confidence to bear with the bear perhaps .
fontu
EU already move up >800 pips+ since 1.28X+ area...
base on weekly 700-800 is the way of that movement
remember, take a look at ur current weekly n monthly, still pushing higher? Monday is the last day for Jan 2011.... daily close=montly close as well....just carefull

g
  • #375,543
  • Jan 30, 2011 5:40am Jan 30, 2011 5:40am
Quoting grashid
EU already move up >800 pips+ since 1.28X+ area...
base on weekly 700-800 is the way of that movement
remember, take a look at ur current weekly n monthly, still pushing higher? Monday is the last day for Jan 2011.... daily close=montly close as well....just carefull

g
i even started to sell the rally.

3500 would be nice target for monday/tuesday.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #375,544
  • Jan 30, 2011 5:49am Jan 30, 2011 5:49am
Quoting PhAnTi'
i even started to sell the rally.

3500 would be nice target for monday/tuesday.
,,

anyway i would like to see EU close below 3450 on monday to hold my position from 1.37250..EY from 113.550, GY from 132.250, GU from 1.60250 and 1.59550..That it

Still waiting my dummies gold ~1346 before decide to hold or wait before take it back~ 1384 area...enjoy ur weekend mate...

cheers

g
  • #375,545
  • Jan 30, 2011 5:51am Jan 30, 2011 5:51am
Bulls are still in play. Many stops were triggered on Friday, due to profit taking and covering.

I wont sell anything now, nor I would take any trades before I confirm it.

I dare to say that bulls are still in play and that we may see another push towards 3750.
  • #375,546
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:01am Jan 30, 2011 6:01am
To avoid from posting crap and rubbish, nah here is my chart...

Still bull? up to u guys. remember if 3450 close below that, monthly will changed to whole things...

i am no suprice if Monday EU will be crazy....just a head's up...n carefull

good luck all

p/s: do not forgot to check daily n weekly USDCHF as well

g
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  • #375,547
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:18am Jan 30, 2011 6:18am
Quoting grashid
To avoid from posting crap and rubbish, nah here is my chart...

Still bull? up to u guys. remember if 3450 close below that, monthly will changed to whole things...

i am no suprice if Monday EU will be crazy....just a head's up...n carefull

good luck all

p/s: do not forgot to check daily n weekly USDCHF as well

g
I am not bull nor i am a bear. I trade my own setups. I really dont care what others say believe me. I respect, but I dont listen to else I would not be a trader.

I just state my opionion. We didnt have 3784 touch and leaning W is not yet completed. We also had Friday sell off which could be seen as a profit taking/risk off/covering/stops triggered...

NFP is soon. We MAY test 3530-3450 levels, but its not been confirmed yet ( bearish trend takeover), at least on my charts.

What I am trying to say is > Bulls are still alive. A break below 3420 is needed.

Everyone was short on Friday, yet I posted an early London analysis with TP.

I missed my target price by 6 pips, but I have made profit with longs.

On an intraday basis I might trade shorts. As always I will give my view of EU just before London open.
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  • #375,548
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:32am Jan 30, 2011 6:32am
Quoting T@rantula
I am not bull nor i am a bear. I trade my own setups. I really dont care what others say believe me. I respect, but I dont listen to else I would not be a trader.

I just state my opionion. We didnt have 3784 touch and leaning W is not yet completed. We also had Friday sell off which could be seen as a profit taking/risk off/covering/stops triggered...

NFP is soon. We MAY test 3530-3450 levels, but its not been confirmed yet ( bearish trend takeover), at least on my charts.

What...
Why not break below 3498 T? Highest point in mid section of W pattern... :nerd:

BTW gut feel tells me that we have not yet seen the highest point in this rally/bull trend...
  • #375,549
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:45am Jan 30, 2011 6:45am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Why not break below 3498 T? Highest point in mid section of W pattern... :nerd:

BTW gut feel tells me that we have not yet seen the highest point in this rally/bull trend...
Take a look at the chart. 3450-3420. We need round numbers. Institutional traders place trades mostly on round numbers. Look at previous swing highs/lows. Thats serves as a support now. Bias may change when support is broken. Covering and panic drive the market then. Bulls should defend this territory with any means else/ fail.

3496 was the peak but its not the round number. It lies below confluenced with previous highs.
  • #375,550
  • Jan 30, 2011 6:54am Jan 30, 2011 6:54am
Quoting T@rantula
Take a look at the chart. 3450-3420. We need round numbers. Institutional traders place trades mostly on round numbers. Look at previous swing highs/lows. Thats serves as a support now. Bias may change when support is broken. Covering and panic drive the market then. Bulls should defend this territory with any means else/ fail.

3496 was the peak but its not the round number. It lies below confluenced with previous highs.
In any case, Friday's sharp sell-off, despite the momentum can only so far be considered as corrective (the way I see it)...

Agree, end of week profit taking and risk aversion from geo-political (ie. Egypt) most probable culprits...
  • #375,551
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:13am Jan 30, 2011 7:13am
Hey all...
Remember 95% lose.( me included) I've just read through the last 10 pages or so and everybody is in short, so what's likely to happen Monday morning ?
Price is in an uptrend. It found support and bounced off the 200SMA on the hourly on Friday. The daily close is very bearish but it's sitting on the MR1 pivot as support. Take a look at the last bearish daily candle close on Jan17 and what followed. Fundamentals may seem bad but I anticipate a retrace to kill off some shorts before a more serious move comes if it comes.
  • #375,552
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:20am Jan 30, 2011 7:20am
a lot of good analysis,, all have their respective arguments,,

I also have to have an analysis, so I do not get confused by it all
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #375,553
  • Jan 30, 2011 7:40am Jan 30, 2011 7:40am
Interesting correlation, Gold as well in ABC corrective pattern and seems A wave is complete, wave B should get us back up to 1380 level and C might end right on daily TL before higher, imho. How Euro will correlate.. next week will tell, however I''m not on bear side yet, will wait for confirmation.
  • #375,554
  • Edited 9:04am Jan 30, 2011 8:24am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting grashid
EU already move up >800 pips+ since 1.28X+ area...
base on weekly 700-800 is the way of that movement
remember, take a look at ur current weekly n monthly, still pushing higher? Monday is the last day for Jan 2011.... daily close=montly close as well....just carefull

g
Thanks grashid. In monthly price playing in a big mofu but bounced at last time & hold 200ma , so bullish without condition but there again a breakthough bear candle nov 2010 & price still trying to retrace within & hence near term is bearish when retracement be over & now such condition prevail more or less , needs more conformation only.rally bear here again after sell set perfection & duely retracements 2450 pips .

In weekly , as price expecting end of retracement, it should at any level if not all wrong after having 4200 pips movements down from 1.6037 to understand price actually in big mofu , a retracement or in impulse down !!now price just below 200ma for probable halt already ,also againwas sell set perfection & duely retracing up here like monthly , in a rally up , only 3 candle . so it not that bullish rather bearish though bull hammer with start the retracement and is the main tf for the bull support now .

In Daily tf , buy set perfection & duely a good retracement in need though continued up after market intention with perfection & so more retracement down may expect & medium strong bearish towards 200 ma at support level.

Other lower tf actually in creation the new movements next & if possible the intermediate trend change in process or resum the main and hence they all very bearish & this now egyptian style revolution continues success obviously come in light in time.
I am personally with revolution group, bear .

Just may wait till German Retail Sales m/m & CPI Flash Estimate y/y over & possible euo bounce & then short on monday .
Thanks ,fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #375,555
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:49am Jan 30, 2011 8:49am
Quoting Srikanth
I'm still expecting some bullishness from 1.3550 level.. Further it may test 1.43/44 levels soon. This is much possible if and only if price breaks 1.37 levels. something below 1.3550 is extremely bearish.
here is my next week ... sell 1.3630 , if we do not get that 1.3590 , stop 100 , tp 1.3250 to 1.3210... if the move has not progressed well by Wednesday Then i will rethink ... but this is what I am expecting

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #375,556
  • Edited 9:16am Jan 30, 2011 8:51am | Edited 9:16am
atm i see that bull still hold, but on daily TF w pattern was completed from last week.

So, for this week i prefer to put short on EU.
  • #375,557
  • Jan 30, 2011 8:57am Jan 30, 2011 8:57am
Last week the pair traded in the 50-61.8 fibo range of the last downmove (1.4281 to 1.2873). Everyday had a HH and HL, except for Friday. Friday is no doubt the most interesting day of the week, due to a sharp downmove in which the weekly range was made from 61.8 back to 50, while respecting both Weekly R1 (high = 1.3745) and Monthly R1 (low = 1.3583) to the pip. This is very likely the start of a correction. That said, the odds seem to favour a scenario where price will touch the wpp (1.3634) and subsequently pay a visit to the 1.3410 area (38.2 fibo, Weekly S2, past resistance which now should act as support) early this week. Weekly high should be printed after this move by the end of the week.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #375,558
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:14am Jan 30, 2011 9:14am
Quoting Kengen
What is your opinion regarding today's breakdown of the EURUSD. Can one attribute today's action to pure technical price action formation or to the indirect fundamentals relating to issues and the protests unfolding in Egypt?
Quoting suthmo
We are nearing the top of the c wave. Prediction played out for several hundred pips again. will be looking for this wave end to produce a deep retrace next week.
Hiy. you'll
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #375,559
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:36am Jan 30, 2011 9:36am
Quoting malcolmb14
here is my next week ... sell 1.3630 , if we do not get that 1.3590 , stop 100 , tp 1.3250 to 1.3210... if the move has not progressed well by Wednesday Then i will rethink ... but this is what I am expecting

Attachment
I'm confused. Your chart shows entry 1.3502 with target 1.3852 and stop 1.3402. Care to explain this alternative setup?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #375,560
  • Jan 30, 2011 9:46am Jan 30, 2011 9:46am
Quoting Theroadto1bi
HEY where is Tarantula or ACID.... how are they doing with there longs!
im sure he's doing fine. he knows how to trade and does not need anyone's approvals here. if you use proper m/m a loss is just a part of doing business. no need to get anyone's panties in a wad. when hes long and your short, there is no need to take it personal. your best bet is to at least take the time to understand his point of view. he and many others are good traders. we do not always agree and whats happening when. but if you are not totally sold on your view and he is counter-view. you should consider, and maybe sit out. sometimes is better to be silent and listen. i dare to say T's account is growing steady and faster then most. even if you don't agree it would be foolish not to consider what he has posted.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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