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  • #375,441
  • Jan 28, 2011 3:02pm Jan 28, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting K_Minos
Hi all,

I'm new in trading and I don't understand why we had a break short today when the news were not in favor of the dollar (forecast 3.5-actual 3.2%).

Thanks
Hi Minos,

You dont need to understand why the market does anything, just follow the price action and trade it.

Plan your trades.... Trade your plan.....
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #375,442
  • Edited 3:20pm Jan 28, 2011 3:18pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting K_Minos
Hi all,

I'm new in trading and I don't understand why we had a break short today when the news were not in favor of the dollar (forecast 3.5-actual 3.2%).

Thanks
1. More selling than buying.

2. Fundamentals ... they sucked, big time, all week long (seriously, no pun intended). The entire purpose of the range was to unload the ridiculous rally. The market can behave like this during low liquidity bs holidays, it was a real stretch to get this far without picking up reinforcements (retracing) in a liquid market contrary to the fundamentals.

The situatution from what I understand is very sad in Egypt. But believe me Wall St. is not losing sleep over it. The fundamentals were WAY WAY WAY off from the charts.
  • #375,443
  • Jan 28, 2011 3:19pm Jan 28, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting K_Minos
Hi all,

I'm new in trading and I don't understand why we had a break short today when the news were not in favor of the dollar (forecast 3.5-actual 3.2%).

Thanks
Go back through the last 30 pages or so and you will learn why. You could also do a search for cloggie and read all his posts from today, he explained it very well.
  • #375,444
  • Jan 28, 2011 4:09pm Jan 28, 2011 4:09pm
What is your opinion regarding today's breakdown of the EURUSD. Can one attribute today's action to pure technical price action formation or to the indirect fundamentals relating to issues and the protests unfolding in Egypt?
  • #375,445
  • Jan 28, 2011 5:08pm Jan 28, 2011 5:08pm
M30...
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  • #375,446
  • Jan 28, 2011 5:09pm Jan 28, 2011 5:09pm
Hello Friends,

hope you had a successful day today :-)

Here are the actual Elliott Wave counts. Please take the wave degree with a grain of salt, because one have to wait and and see how things develop.

Please take the second last picture with caution, because its wave one and two can be interpreted in multiple ways. Placement of its yellow 3, 4 and 5 seems to be proper.<

And last picture is an alternative count. Both main and alternative count have the same probability. The alternative count fits best with the UDX

More analysis later.

Have a nice weekend,


Markus
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  • #375,447
  • Jan 28, 2011 8:28pm Jan 28, 2011 8:28pm
quick recap of the week. pretty much all the targets posted here reached their TP. some were easier, others I had to hold for longer than i liked but eventually they came home.
i usually only post longer term targets, but i do scalp a lot...
however, i was wrong on the last two of this post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=374592
  • #375,448
  • Jan 28, 2011 10:06pm Jan 28, 2011 10:06pm
Quoting Kengen
What is your opinion regarding today's breakdown of the EURUSD. Can one attribute today's action to pure technical price action formation or to the indirect fundamentals relating to issues and the protests unfolding in Egypt?
Why not technically as pure ? lots of things happen daily at every corners of the world, if one can check may get millions of financials events , some strong , some moderate & some weak or weakest whatever, so some say something, some furts,some do, some fail doing , some news happen , some created etc etc . which one the market take as news to sell , any or none or do just opposite . one may see very good US news doing very bad for its currencies & there no less alibis why it did so. all hypothetical gaseous situation & extremely unpredictable for most situation of the real resultant line of reaction fundamentally not only for microscopic us traders but every giants also & so only market get such buyers & sellers at every fractions of levels who actually can move it. all get same confusion & play in blindness, specially fundamentally no doubt.

technically since 24.1 market expecting retracements enough but not happen , tried to push up & up with die hard buyers without general mass perhaps and did not able up enough before possible failure , failure & failure all expecting happen. so it may needed something happen to sell news & market movers may needed anything to use to stop & breakout & if got any even little worth but fit to the receptor to translate into action potential . bass over ..
anyway can't believe that some one or dead charts with whatever potentiality of breakout , can arrange some thing to happen any place & take advantage of the predetermined movement!!!!!!!!!

So we keep the foot prints all over the life time to lead to the next path of destination at last , no excuse and same as the chart believe do technically mostly & ultimately, find the most indiscipline arrangements into complex , if necessary more & more complex disciplined ways to the goals and many things happen , many news come & go etc on the background.
Nothing great not happened yet , expecting more down technically & if so we will find many news to sell for the same , good or bad of any kind , any place can do in favor of.
lets see .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #375,449
  • Jan 28, 2011 10:40pm Jan 28, 2011 10:40pm
Quoting K_Minos
Hi all,

I'm new in trading and I don't understand why we had a break short today when the news were not in favor of the dollar (forecast 3.5-actual 3.2%).

Thanks
Hi Minos,

To add a little to my previous post.

If you are new to trading and your not too sure on some of the factors and events that may cause the market to move in certain ways then maybe this link may provide some information that may help you out.

http://www.informedtrades.com/f111/

Could I suggest that you possibly start with the part about pattern recongnightion and technical analysis. There is plenty of information on this page for those who are new to trading or new to FX.

One piece of advice. Keep you trading simple. You will be surprised that after looking and looking at so many different indicators, its the simple things that work the best.

Hope this helps somewhat.

Cheers.

DW
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #375,450
  • Jan 29, 2011 1:55am Jan 29, 2011 1:55am
Quoting attila
quick recap of the week. pretty much all the targets posted here reached their TP. some were easier, others I had to hold for longer than i liked but eventually they came home.
i usually only post longer term targets, but i do scalp a lot...
however, i was wrong on the last two of this post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=374592
hello attila,,
I've joined in a place that you recommend
and I will start studying again,

what's wrong with your last 2 post,,? what you do not get your TP,,?
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #375,451
  • Jan 29, 2011 2:19am Jan 29, 2011 2:19am
only first target was hit. the second and third were not.
Quoting andelumut
hello attila,,
I've joined in a place that you recommend
and I will start studying again,

what's wrong with your last 2 post,,? what you do not get your TP,,?
  • #375,452
  • Jan 29, 2011 3:19am Jan 29, 2011 3:19am
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  • #375,453
  • Jan 29, 2011 3:24am Jan 29, 2011 3:24am
Quoting fontu
anyway can't believe that some one or dead charts with whatever potentiality of breakout , can arrange some thing to happen any place & take advantage of the predetermined movement!!!!!!!!!

So we keep the foot prints all over the life time to lead to the next path of destination at last , no excuse and same as the chart believe do technically mostly & ultimately, find the most indiscipline arrangements into complex , if necessary more & more complex disciplined ways to the goals and many things happen , many news come & go etc on the background.
Nothing...

Hi Fontu,
love your words. Wise words from a wise man. And so "Elliottican" :-)

This man knows his stuff.

Best to you and have a wonderful weekend. Take care,
Markus
  • #375,454
  • Jan 29, 2011 4:40am Jan 29, 2011 4:40am
Quoting Kengen
What is your opinion regarding today's breakdown of the EURUSD. Can one attribute today's action to pure technical price action formation or to the indirect fundamentals relating to issues and the protests unfolding in Egypt?
My opinion:
1. Fundamental. GDP was 2.6% and in news it was updated to 3.2% - it is better than before.

2. Tehnical. D1 fibonacci.
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  • #375,455
  • Edited 7:00am Jan 29, 2011 5:37am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Fontu,
love your words. Wise words from a wise man. And so "Elliottican" :-)

This man knows his stuff.

Best to you and have a wonderful weekend. Take care,
Markus
Hope doing well Markus , what about the 5th wave counts now in the complex in complex ? found clear possibilities ?
"Elliottican"? yes when asked traders 4 years back that which analysis technique most fit to describe wave , all said , elliot wave but they all warned it as very hard to know & apply & so inclined to it . Then tried every bet keeping in mind the alternatives too but soon learn that nothing can be so easy or possible to describe before already happened. That past is easy to count than any present or any possible future . Lost hugely many times & discover what I thought am impulse was actually retracement after 1000pips movement, the euphoria gone & since then use it as background past only like every other method & indicators .present is only price action or better say price patterns describing the mass psychological activities at present only.so an "Elliottican" not any more perhaps .

To me 5 th/c ended with impulse on the way down . for one 4th subwave may limit again 3676 limit above the supply zone if taken up during pullback before further down 5th or end wave 1 towards 1.3535( 2nd confirmation down)-02 /3457 ( 3rd confirmation )possible , need in breaking 1.3672 as primary confirmation .

Thanks ,waiting the counts most possible .
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #375,456
  • Jan 29, 2011 8:26am Jan 29, 2011 8:26am
Quoting K_Minos
Hi all,

I'm new in trading and I don't understand why we had a break short today when the news were not in favor of the dollar (forecast 3.5-actual 3.2%).

Thanks
You got that backwards. Don't worry, most here can't get their head around it either.

Briefly:

The news was cr@p, everyone dumped the equities, risk of, more dollars in the market, dollar up, euro down.

Simples.


Trade the risk, and know the basic difference between good and bad news, this one was bad.

And if you really want to drill down to how it is calculated, the GDP was actually +0.8%, but that is another story for another day. This was just an exercise in mass media manipulation, the market knows better not to read the media headlines, they are aimed at the average punter on the street and not the traders.

Go back over my posts, I gave you the trading setup to use based on the numbers before the GDP came out and traded the sh!t out of it, these are the no brainer setups that traders wait for patiently. Everyone and his dog makes money out of these.

Posted 30 mins before the GDP:

Quoting cloggie
bad number; risk of, we are going down.

I will keep a close eye on es/dow/gold and ignoring oil as that is still driven by the OPEC this week and not by techs/fundies
Simples, pure news driven correlated trading.
  • #375,457
  • Jan 29, 2011 8:29am Jan 29, 2011 8:29am
Quoting cloggie
You got that backwards. Don't worry, most here can't get their head around it either.

Briefly:

The news was cr@p, everyone dumped the equities, risk of, more dollars in the market, dollar up, euro down.

Simples.


Trade the risk, and know the basic difference between good and bad news, this one was bad.

And if you really want to drill down to how it is calculated, the GDP...
what is "es"?
  • #375,458
  • Jan 29, 2011 8:40am Jan 29, 2011 8:40am
Quoting tonegawa
what is "es"?
E-Mini S&P

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-mini_S%26P
  • #375,459
  • Jan 29, 2011 8:45am Jan 29, 2011 8:45am
The EURUSD had found support at 1.3574. We should move up from here. Next week should take the pair to 1.39.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #375,460
  • Jan 29, 2011 9:01am Jan 29, 2011 9:01am
It's bounced at a previous support, a daily and weekly pivot and managed a very weak retrace to the 23 fr, so far...

we've closed (the session) 100 pips or so down on the daily open and the weekly candle has closed as a doji (albeit with a bit of a topping spike), this demonstrates indecision.

It however, is also noteworthy (as Gator pointed out earlier in the week) that Friday's pa was coming off the back of 8 days of consecutive higher closes.

Also, in my opinion, there is no evidence thus far of a completion of testing or shake-out within the consolidation (which is either distribution or re-accumulation).

Trade what you see, not what you think...
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