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  • #375,241
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:35am Jan 28, 2011 9:35am
Quoting tonegawa
Where can I learn how to trade the fundamentals?
I see in various guides for technical analysis, but when I find fundamental analysis chapters, there are just definitions and generic principles but no information on how to trade using it.

The reason most traders here ignore the fundamentals and belittle it is because they don't understand how to assess risk. I start my morning with a general overview of risk sentiment and how the preceding day/week's fundamentals could influence the day's trading, I then look at the news items and judge sentiment for resultant PA. (go back over my posts, I have done quite a few NFP/GDP days here posting sentiment and risk assessments)

Learning how to read the fundies is not something you can pick up from a book or a few posts, you either understand economics/politics indepth or you don't.

For most "newer" retailers sticking to the techs is the only option really. If you do survive in this business beyond 5 years, the fundamental experience and knowledge will come by itself as you continually see how events around the world play out on the techie side.

Managing and trading risk just gives you a bit of a headsup when it comes to trading the techie side, yes eventually all is priced in the chart, it is just a bit nicer to get a jumpstart on the sentiment so you know what the higher probability technical trigggers are that you need to keep an eye on. It also keeps you from being biased to the wrong side of the market.

Ah well, I will get of my soapbox again. Enjoy the rest of the day guys/gals.
  • #375,242
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:35am Jan 28, 2011 9:35am
to me things are very simple. i watch what they do BEFORE the news. question for all the fundies: do you guys think the big boys DON'T know what the number will be? i highly doubt that. very highly....


edit: now i watch 3640. moment of truth....

Quoting T@rantula
Putting money into equities means selling the cash, that means dollar down euro up and vice versa. And that usually happens when fund.news is good for USD.

I think we think the same.
  • #375,243
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:35am Jan 28, 2011 9:35am
Quoting T@rantula
Putting money into equities means selling the cash, that means dollar down euro up and vice versa. And that usually happens when fund.news is good for USD.

I think we think the same.
just in recent years. it wasn't allows like that.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #375,244
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:36am Jan 28, 2011 9:36am
Just that F**k, My last trade was a win 3695 sell, but I had no better idea that to put a short sl of 10 pips, for sure the market took it, and now after I with rage close the platform I see a shining 3650 hahahahha.

My fault, as someone said before, have to learn to let the green pips flow today I opened 3 short positions @ 3740 but took only 5 pips each time, I allways put a TP an SL but I canīt control it.

Next week I will star to practice that, nice weekend to all.
  • #375,245
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:36am Jan 28, 2011 9:36am
Quoting Srikanth
Smelling Weakness here..
right on the money
  • #375,246
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:37am Jan 28, 2011 9:37am
Quoting sisse
IMO. A little bit premature with that chart as it looks like easy run of stops of weak hands. It could take a lot more than that and 1.367x is intact.

For your chart we'll see in a few bars if it was a run stop/micro bear trap/ and fade.... for the bigger intraday move (h4) there is still a long time left.

sisse
My H4 long intraday setup on the rejection of 1.367x cleaned from the charts. Well played all shorts.

1.363x rejection should form todays low (otherwise is a clean sweep) and provide support for today. Potential fade there for those who like adrenaline.

In my case done for a very boring no trades day.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #375,247
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:37am Jan 28, 2011 9:37am
armageddon begins
  • #375,248
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:39am Jan 28, 2011 9:39am
Quoting buonvangvn
short 1.3747 , sl 80 tp 300
yesterday.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post4349081

Now http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1296228682
  • #375,249
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:40am Jan 28, 2011 9:40am
Quoting cloggie
The reason most traders here ignore the fundamentals and belittle it is because they don't understand how to assess risk. I start my morning with a general overview of risk sentiment and how the preceding day/week's fundamentals could influence the day's trading, I then look at the news items and judge sentiment for resultant PA. (go back over my posts, I have done quite a few NFP/GDP days here posting sentiment and risk assessments)

Learning how to read the fundies is not something you can pick up from a book or a few posts, you either understand...
thanks for the answer and for your posts.

I'll keep following them.
  • #375,250
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:40am Jan 28, 2011 9:40am
Quoting gatorinla
just in recent years. it wasn't allows like that.
I presume, things change...we need to adapt.
  • #375,251
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:41am Jan 28, 2011 9:41am
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 105 daily jan 27 2011.gif Size: 30 KB
The finest tool in the world still needs a MAN who KNOWS how to use it.
  • #375,252
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:41am Jan 28, 2011 9:41am
how can you guys trade the news with ten pips SL is beyond me. i am of a different school... somebody i respect said once: I don't trade, I manage margin.

edit: never mind, was passed the news, but still...


Quoting Santana33
Just that F**k, My last trade was a win 3695 sell, but I had no better idea that to put a short sl of 10 pips, for sure the market took it, and now after I with rage close the platform I see a shining 3650 hahahahha.

My fault, as someone said before, have to learn to let the green pips flow today I opened 3 short positions @ 3740 but took only 5 pips each time, I allways put a TP an SL but I canīt control it.

Next week I will star to practice that, nice weekend to all.
  • #375,253
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:42am Jan 28, 2011 9:42am
Quoting tonegawa
thanks for the answer and for your posts.

I'll keep following them.

Right now we have an intermediate trend reversal in the making, both backed by the fundies and the techies. I am looking at 3430 for next week. Not going to build a trade at this time of day as I don't carry anything over the weekend, but fundamentally I will be keeping a close eye on risk on Monday and am planning a longer term trade for 3430 and 3300
  • #375,254
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:42am Jan 28, 2011 9:42am
I presented that exact situation in the forum and all of the super awesome traders didn't reply at all. So, it really is hard to learn. However, I have picked up some good hints from Cloggie, Pipchick, Paul1, etc.

Also there is a book called "The Secrets of Economic Indicators" by Bernard Baumohl It took me a long time to finish that book... I will probably start reading it again in a few months.. As I am almost done with going to my University to learn Mandarin Chinese. I am still learning as well.... I am not a full time trader.. but that is the dream. One thing that has made a huge difference is Support and Resistance levels. I like to start from the highest time frame to find the strongest ones and then work my way down to the lower time frames for minor support levels. I just started getting the hang of it recently and I haven't used MACD since or some some lagging indicators. Also, you can use other pairs as indicators as well. Sometimes one currency can weaken another currency... Kind of like three dogs biting a frisbee at the same time. Even two smaller dogs get temporarily get it away from the big dog. Cutting loses are the hardest part in forex. No one likes to lose. But I try to look at how an account grows as far as percentage. That kind of takes my focus away from "what if, could of, should of" scenarios. Anyways.. I am still a newbie myself... I go to school and work... So I am on the 5 year newbie time frame. I can't wait to finish school so I can focus more on learning forex...
Anyways.. sorry for the long rant and good luck.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #375,255
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:43am Jan 28, 2011 9:43am
Quoting Santana33
put a short sl of 10 pips, .

Guaranteed to fail then.
  • #375,256
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:45am Jan 28, 2011 9:45am
Enough is enough , closed shorts at 3635 , breakout at last & hope more 3572 next week to go down & down or today ? who know will do short again if breaks & hold 3625 .
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 12 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #375,257
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:45am Jan 28, 2011 9:45am
Quoting cloggie
Guaranteed to fail then.
Lesson learned, ;D BTW it was opened like one hour after the news-
  • #375,258
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:47am Jan 28, 2011 9:47am
Quoting cloggie
Guaranteed to fail then.
Especially when trading news.

Ideal stops for intraday trading as well as not-so-important news is somewhere between 32-60 pips.

NFP is slightly different. I trade it ONLY in the direction of the trend with stop orders.

I dont hedge it as a majority do. If it spikes versus trend direction ( trendline or MA) I dont take the trade.
  • #375,259
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:48am Jan 28, 2011 9:48am
Quoting T@rantula
LOL.

Especially when trading news.

Ideal stops for intraday trading as well as not-so-important news is somewhere between 32-60 pips.

NFP is slightly different. I trade it ONLY in the direction of the trend with stop orders.

I dont hedge it as a majority do. If it spikes versus trend direction ( trendline or MA) I dont take the trade.

I never use stops, I have a parachute stop on trades, just in case all my power, UPS's and internet backups go, mainly I manage the trades based on PA and get in and out accordingly. Never have a TP either, I get out when price reverses.
  • #375,260
  • Jan 28, 2011 9:48am Jan 28, 2011 9:48am
Gonna head towards S2 @ 3584?
Make it rain baby
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