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  • #373,141
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:34pm Jan 26, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting lev1987
it's possible that I'm not getting it right, I would appreciate a further explanation.

As long as I understand buying stocks is same as buying currency cuz you have to use the currency in order to own the stock. for example: a hard working eu region citizen decides to put his savings in US stocks so he sells EUR - buying USD in order to buy the stock. Am I wrong?

even tho' you might be right that some currency traders know the news before everyone else that way using it to manipulate earnings before the market actually reacts to the news. (short...

You got that backwards. The pair is driven mainly by dollar news and dollar risk. (the whole world is driven by the dollar with the secondary of any pair being the minor). The good news increases the risk appetite so investors buy US equities, that increases the supply in dollars and therefore the euro climbs as the counterpair. The pair does not necessarily changes price due to both sides of the pair, it only needs one. Trading fx means you are trading in pairs and have 4 different risks that determine the underlying price, it is more complicated then equities and noobies can't get their head around it at first.

Stop looking as news as being good vs. bad; look at news as an increase or reduction of risk.

I keep saying the same thing, trade the risk, forget the rest and you will be on the right side of the market. Just weigh the risk appetite or lack thereof of one half of the pair vs the other half.

Both euro and dollar are in a race between 2 ugly sisters for an invite to the ball, judge the resultant net risk and you get a price direction.

In a very simplistic way, if the news is good and gives rise to an increase in risk, then the euro will go up (barring any news from the EU), if the news is good and does not give rise to an increase in risk (aversion) then the euro will remain and the dollar will go up. So good news can bring the pair up or down, the risk appetite will tell you the net effect of the news, today's number meant an increase in risk so dollar down, no further news from the EU so euro up. It didn't last though and the news only gave us a triple move (60 pips), this is not like NFP.

Don't trade the news, trade the risk.
  • #373,142
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:36pm Jan 26, 2011 12:36pm
Always use stoploss... you can always reenter like 10 PIPS better
  • #373,143
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:36pm Jan 26, 2011 12:36pm
need to take out rising tl for lower...
  • #373,144
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:36pm Jan 26, 2011 12:36pm
you should not trade this market unless you are a scalper.

Quoting Vilgax
don't like this whipsaw action...geez just to take out 30 pips is becoming like a mission impossible for me since this morning. dammit just get up to .3710 already...sigh....
  • #373,145
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:37pm Jan 26, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting aarontdang
Always use stoploss... you can always reenter like 10 PIPS better
I did and made most of it back within seconds...
  • #373,146
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:39pm Jan 26, 2011 12:39pm
Trichet Downplays But Doesn’t Reject Outright Greek Default
DAVOS (MNI) – Eurozone and IMF aid packages do not foresee Greece
or Ireland defaulting on their debt, European Central Bank President
Jean-Claude Trichet said Wednesday, but he failed to categorically rule
out the possibility.
A restructuring “is not in the program. It is not what the IMF
program is foreseeing. It is not what the Commission program is
foreseeing. It is not what has been decided,” Trichet said in an
interview with Reuters TV.
Instead, “it is up to the governments in question” to prove that
they are implementing their respective programs “in the best possible
way,” he added.
Trichet observed that this is “until now what Greece in particular
has been doing,” but he did not categorically reject speculation of
restructuring.
Earlier in the crisis, Trichet had used much stronger language,
saying that “a default is not an issue for Greece,” or assured that the
Eurozone “won’t allow” it.
Markets generally believe that it is only a matter of time before
Greece will need to restructure its debt, which include lengthening of
maturities and possibly haircuts on the value.
In a separate interview with CNBC moments later, Trichet deflected
a question on whether the ECB was worried about absorbing losses on its
balance sheet because of its purchases of troubled peripheral Eurozone
bonds, which now total about E76.5 billion.
Trichet said that losing money on the bonds was “not part of our
working assumption.” Instead, he said, the assumption is that countries
with public financing problems will adopt the proper policies to address
them, stay the course and solve their difficulties.
He evaded a question on when the ECB envisioned ending its bond
purchasing program. It’s up to the governments of individual EMU
governments to implement the policies needed to right their ships. Once
that happens, he said, “we’ll see” about the bond buying.
He added that the ECB’s non-standard measures, “which are by their
nature transitory, will be transitory.”

www.forexlive.com
  • #373,147
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:42pm Jan 26, 2011 12:42pm
Quoting cloggie
You got that backwards. The pair is driven mainly by dollar news and dollar risk. (the whole world is driven by the dollar with the secondary of any pair being the minor). The good news increases the risk appetite so investors buy US equities, that increases the supply in dollars and therefore the euro climbs as the counterpair. The pair does not necessarily changes price due to both sides of the pair, it only needs one. Trading fx means you are trading in pairs and have 4 different risks that determine the underlying price, it is more complicated...
do you mind giving an example?
  • #373,148
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:43pm Jan 26, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting attila
you should not trade this market unless you are a scalper.
Exactly. Like me, I just gave up 5 pips on a perfect bounce to the lower TL that I called before hand because it freaked me out.

I'd be up 20 now. lol
  • #373,149
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:43pm Jan 26, 2011 12:43pm
Hi Folks,

Im trying to work out if the Pivot Points that I'm using are any good.

Ive got:

DP: 3651
R1: 3730
S1: 3599
S2: 3520

Can anyone confirm if these levels seem reasonable? Cheers
  • #373,150
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:43pm Jan 26, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting lev1987
do you mind giving an example?

Today. News good, risk on, equities up, dollar down, euro up, 60 pips, Bob's your uncle.
  • #373,151
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm
Loss - 11 PIP
reenter with double size original

+ 17 PIPS
  • #373,152
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm
short entered at 3671.. sl 12 pips .. target 3648.. last trade before the news..
  • #373,153
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm
don't try this at home: i'm long to 3698 and short to 3641 for the news.
  • #373,154
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting cloggie
Today. News good, risk on, equities up, dollar down, euro up, 60 pips, Bob's your uncle.
I feel like an idiot.
why good news = high risk, shouldn't it be the opposite?
  • #373,155
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:47pm Jan 26, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting lev1987
shouldn't it be the opposite?

No
  • #373,156
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:48pm Jan 26, 2011 12:48pm
Quoting SteveOSling
Hi Folks,

Im trying to work out if the Pivot Points that I'm using are any good.

Ive got:

DP: 3651
R1: 3730
S1: 3599
S2: 3520

Can anyone confirm if these levels seem reasonable? Cheers
here you are. those are based on alpari quotes.
Attached Image
  • #373,157
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:49pm Jan 26, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
should c 3630 this time min
alarm went off when i posted this. i was napping. i did not realize the fed was about to release decision. disregard.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #373,158
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:50pm Jan 26, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting Shah22
short entered at 3671.. sl 12 pips .. target 3648.. last trade before the news..
I am short too from 1.3671 ,gbpusd pending sell @ 1.5881
  • #373,159
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:50pm Jan 26, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting gatorinla
alarm went off when i posted this. i was napping. i did not realize the fed was about to release decision. disregard.

Yup in 90, keyword inflation
  • #373,160
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:50pm Jan 26, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting lev1987
I feel like an idiot.
why good news = high risk, shouldn't it be the opposite?
think of it like this: good news... ah, alright, america is well off, let's spend the dollars we have. bad news... oh shit, we're close to the abyss, let's bring the money back.
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