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AUD/USD

  • #27,601
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:29pm Jan 25, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Willl AU go to .86 or .89? Maybe, or maybe not.

Good trading to you.
Nice post Jade, agree with you. The last part highlight, absolutly without a doubt you could put your house on it. However when is the question. AUD will be back there at some point in the future which may be short, mid or long off. Am I short for it now? No I would need to see some pretty convincing data to tell me the AUD has lost its shine but I am open to the fundamental environment to give the clues.

Take care

RT
  • #27,602
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:35pm Jan 25, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting ely
Level 4 picture is for the medium term...what happens on a daily basis, does not matter one iota.

EXPERIENCED traders were the only ones who saw the financial bubble coming!
In fact, i can't remember reading anything about it...only hearing a, "POP"!

On a daily biz, opened and closed on the long & short side for a few pips...but, the INEXPERIENCED Gut feeling tells me, the bigger picture is heading towards 0.8900.
EXPERIENCED side is telling me that these days nobody knows any better...in fact, we're just waiting & listening for the...."POP"!...
Question is, are you short? If so would you average out your loosing position to fit the mid term theory. Would you still be adding shorts past 1.0000-1.0400?

I share the respect for having longer term outlooks so dont take this post in the wrong way. I for 1 personally am short term bearish, mid to long term bullish but things happen in this world that are completely out of our control and tomorrow could be another Lehman Brothers which would be a pop moment. There is so much information hidden from the public about the true monetary state of the world but in my view it is not neccesarily needed to find a level of success. Technical charts can usually give you what you need to trade however having a fundamental outlook is important even if many disagree. Most who do dont have a long outlook and usually position themselves for a few pips here and there.

Wish you all the best

RT
  • #27,603
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:39pm Jan 25, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Looking for another attempt to break below the 9900 level and close. good bearish strength in this hour. Lets see if we closed some shorts a little early lol

Market failed to close sub 99 but left trade open and went to bed and didnt see the end of the hourly candle that breached. In hindsight I should have waited to see it close as it was my basis for a run or pullback and I could have closed with 40+ pips. BE + 25% is ok though.

Happy Australia day to the Aussies in the room. I will be out for the day enjoying some beers on the water.

Take care

RT

Aussie Aussie Aussie __ __ __ (fill in the blanks if you know what they are)
  • #27,604
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:40pm Jan 25, 2011 3:40pm
Actually, i am a short term long, with all the flood going on, but we will see... no one know how the market will work on the GDP figure day.... like the CPI, i thought it would come out with a decent number because of the holiday season, but looks like the flood has more effect...
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,605
  • Edited 4:36pm Jan 25, 2011 3:46pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting ely
Level 4 picture is for the medium term...what happens on a daily basis, does not matter one iota.
What happens on a daily basis doesn't matter to you?

It may be helpful to put a corollary on your posts to that effect and perhaps a statement that your views are a long term position trader perspective only; that you are only interested in the bear perspective, never trade the bull PA, and that you do not trade nor have any interest at all in the daily price action.

Happy trading to you.
  • #27,606
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:50pm Jan 25, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting Razor_trader

Happy Australia day to the Aussies in the room.
cheers mate, you too!
now, its a public holiday so get some beers into you!
  • #27,607
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:51pm Jan 25, 2011 3:51pm
Quoting Razor_trader
Nice post Jade, agree with you. The last part highlight, absolutly without a doubt you could put your house on it. However when is the question.
Yes, Razor, timing is everything in this market. This week, this month, May sell-off, next year?

Happy Oz day, oi oi oi
  • #27,608
  • Jan 25, 2011 3:59pm Jan 25, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Yes, Razor, timing is everything in this market. This week, this month, May sell-off, next year?

Happy Oz day, oi oi oi
Bingo fellow Aussie. Hope you enjoy your Auss Day

Take care all, time to pack the esky with some cold brews and hit the water.
  • #27,609
  • Jan 25, 2011 6:50pm Jan 25, 2011 6:50pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Bad AUD, Good USD, and yet AUDUSD could not break cleanly 0.9900
must be strong defensive buyers...

I closed my positions @ 9920s.. instead of 9900 or 9890 earlier...

better in profit now, than gamble them back like what happened to me in dec

if this baby goes back up near parity, im shorting it before FOMC
What do you know? I am both right and wrong closing it at 9920s.

I am wrong for not giving it enough time for it to drop below 9900 - but my TP was 9870s so I guess I would not have exited just because its below 9900.

I am right for closing em because, it would be in big red right now. And with FOMC looming - a day of USD weakness prior to release, i'd be kicking buckets ... or someone kicking my butt - whichever I dont like it.
  • #27,610
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:45pm Jan 25, 2011 7:45pm
I havent traded this pair for days..........it's just not apparent which side it's on.........
  • #27,611
  • Jan 25, 2011 8:25pm Jan 25, 2011 8:25pm
Quoting BurgerKing
. And with FOMC looming - a day of USD weakness prior to release, i'd be kicking buckets ...
Yes. Most interesting that the dollar is struggling to find any bullish support at this particular juncture.

If FOMC doesn't deliver the dollar a boost, everything else will likely go on a north binge. Tho I would be keeping an eye on UJ when London opens.
  • #27,612
  • Jan 25, 2011 11:08pm Jan 25, 2011 11:08pm
It does appear to me that the technicals are all over the place at these levels, it could expand the range to 1.0100 and 0.9700 before a serious long, and of course anything is possible.
I have also noticed some secretive e-mails turning up and these guys are so concerned about our financial wellbeing they're prepared to give their secrets away for a few bucks...lol
doom and gloom anyone?
Biggest joker
  • #27,613
  • Edited 5:09am Jan 26, 2011 4:52am | Edited 5:09am
Hey gang,

I'd like to submit a coupla pics that may show that we are in a bearish period (at least for a while).

The wave count is based on the New Elliott Wave Rule that was released last year by Tom Hennessey. I'm not an expert in the NEWR yet, by any means, but I thought some of you might find it interesting to see an example of it.

First pic is for perspective only. The blue circle shows the area covered in the second pic.

This count is based on the assumption that the high of 12/31/2010 was the completion of a wave 5.

If my count is correct, we COULD see a fairly major bear move to below 9625 before any significant reversal (wave 4).

I appreciate the previous posts about the experienced/inexperienced traders, and with that in mind, I include this caution: "Think it possible, my brethren, that ye may be mistaken." (I think you get the picture.)

Anyway, here are the pics. I hope they may prove to be a useful reference for us.

Bogie
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1.jpg Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au2.jpg Size: 80 KB
  • #27,614
  • Jan 26, 2011 7:18am Jan 26, 2011 7:18am
Quoting Razor_trader
Question is, are you short? If so would you average out your loosing position to fit the mid term theory. Would you still be adding shorts past 1.0000-1.0400?

I share the respect for having longer term outlooks so dont take this post in the wrong way. I for 1 personally am short term bearish, mid to long term bullish but things happen in this world that are completely out of our control and tomorrow could be another Lehman Brothers which would be a pop moment. There is so much information hidden from the public about the true monetary state...


Totally agree RT

Like i said before, i have, like many fx traders been trading the up's, with the down's....day trading is different to the long term picture. Long term in my view, we should be heading towards a "price correction" in-line with many, so called EXPERIENCED traders/strategists who have called this pair to fall towards a more honest PPP, ranging from 0.6700-0.9300!

Whatever your overall target...good luck all.
My target remains 0.8600-0.8900
Hope this helps
Sanks
  • #27,615
  • Jan 26, 2011 7:20am Jan 26, 2011 7:20am
http://www.forexlive.com/162064/all/...ading-strategy

Bearish AUD/USD trading strategy
Wed, Jan 26 2011, 03:41 GMT
http://www.forexlive.com
By: Sean Lee

I've just received a note from a hedge fund which specialises in medium-term technical-analysis-based trading strategies. Their signals are generated primarily through moving-average crossovers but they also look at fundamentals, market positioning etc.

They sold AUD/USD on Monday at .9985 and have added to the position this morning at .9959. They have a stop on the position at 1.0107. They will look to add below .9800 and their target is .9320.

I've had a look at my charts and it's pretty obvious why the s/l is above 1.0100 (recent highs at 1.0085), why they're adding below .9800 (break of recent lows) and the target rate is the 200-day MA. What I can't seem to figure out is which MA crossover they are using but that of course is their proprietary information. If they get this one right, I'll pay a lot closer attention next time.
  • #27,616
  • Jan 26, 2011 7:27am Jan 26, 2011 7:27am
Quoting Jade Gate
What happens on a daily basis doesn't matter to you?

It may be helpful to put a corollary on your posts to that effect and perhaps a statement that your views are a long term position trader perspective only; that you are only interested in the bear perspective, never trade the bull PA, and that you do not trade nor have any interest at all in the daily price action.

Happy trading to you.

Ok Jade...i didn't see this post, and most definitely don't want to argue

Just to clarify for you & others (even though, i have stated this in my previous posts)..on a daily basis, i trade this to make some easy pips!
Some of my Corsa's taken by the markets are bought back on the drips, only to be parked up again at slightly better prices

The bigger picture is my ultimate goal.....hence my overall Level 4 target of 0.86-0.89

Good Trading and many pips to all..whether up, down or sideways
  • #27,617
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:51am Jan 26, 2011 8:51am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 66 KB



will monitor PA for exit
  • #27,618
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:16am Jan 26, 2011 10:16am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


will monitor PA for exit


closed @ 0.99520
  • #27,619
  • Jan 26, 2011 1:33pm Jan 26, 2011 1:33pm
Watch for a possible dump after 5pm swaps, AU, NZD and gold.
  • #27,620
  • Jan 26, 2011 1:45pm Jan 26, 2011 1:45pm
FOMC is bearish - no one dissented on the hold compared to previous ones...

Now its a tug-o-war. Bearish USD vs Flooded AUD..

now, some analysts are bearish China; overheated economy + persistent inflation = possible crash in 6-12months time. thats very bearish AUD...

right now, im staying out of AUD trades until I see this one above 1.02 to short.
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