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AUD/USD

  • #27,581
  • Jan 25, 2011 12:38am Jan 25, 2011 12:38am
despite with all bad data came out from aussie, who is still willing to buy aussie(other than chinese, they always do something under the table).... from my point of view, this little girl has no longer energy to climb, right now she is struggling... struggling to climb higher and if she didnt grab tight, she might fall on the safety net at .97..... my thought, feel free to slash me.
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,582
  • Jan 25, 2011 1:00am Jan 25, 2011 1:00am
Quoting bskwak1124
despite with all bad data came out from aussie, who is still willing to buy aussie(other than chinese, they always do something under the table).... from my point of view, this little girl has no longer energy to climb, right now she is struggling... struggling to climb higher and if she didnt grab tight, she might fall on the safety net at .97..... my thought, feel free to slash me.
My thought exactly...

Problem is, China has all the money in the world right now.
China & Japan are both publicly long on EURO.
China is Long on Australia mainly for the metals.

While they are dumping money paying aussie companies, AUD will remain supported. What AUD shorts need now is a money flow holiday wherein Chinese banks arent wiring money to Australia... Hmmm Chinese New Year anyone? It is scheduled for Next Week! Big possibility of a Rate Hike as well...
  • #27,583
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:27am Jan 25, 2011 2:27am
Quoting smilemiz
even though. ..for AUSSIE.. my analysis is uptrend for longterm one..

i love everyone here... so discussing , sharing and respect each other

I LOVE IT

keep move on.. bring it on.. together..
Are we really that nice??
We'll have to do something about that.
Biggest joker
  • #27,584
  • Jan 25, 2011 6:45am Jan 25, 2011 6:45am
oh boy..... this pair is going everywhere, like the headless chicken!!!! ==
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,585
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:16am Jan 25, 2011 7:16am
Quoting bskwak1124
oh boy..... this pair is going everywhere, like the headless chicken!!!! ==
i agree... and if you are a trend trader, this is what you dont want.
im a position trader looking for a bad aud coming soon.... my problem is timing:when to short wher to short... so far i suck at that
  • #27,586
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:34am Jan 25, 2011 7:34am
Quoting BurgerKing
i agree... and if you are a trend trader, this is what you dont want.
im a position trader looking for a bad aud coming soon.... my problem is timing:when to short wher to short... so far i suck at that

true that, no one knows :S
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,587
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:43am Jan 25, 2011 7:43am
Quoting bskwak1124
despite with all bad data came out from aussie, who is still willing to buy aussie(other than chinese, they always do something under the table).... from my point of view, this little girl has no longer energy to climb, right now she is struggling... struggling to climb higher and if she didnt grab tight, she might fall on the safety net at .97..... my thought, feel free to slash me.
Well I am still very bullish of this pair. The CPI number were a bit of a bum but the numbers are expected to be significantly higher over the coming months with all the floods wiping out most of the fruit and veg areas in QLD and mid north WA. Plus I am not an economist or have any real economics background but with the factors over Christmas and leading up to it being that a larger than normal number of people purchased items online to avoid GST and other taxes while the AUD was buying parity and better, this would have hit store sales in some way.

To say this pair has lost steam is very temporary IMO. The power of the AUD economy and the high chance of at least 1 or 2 rates hikes in 2011 should see it higher. Id like to see 1.10/12 sometime around August (holiday planned) but we can only take what mother markets offers.

Peace

RT
  • #27,588
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:43am Jan 25, 2011 7:43am
Shorting the aussie's been working for me today. perfect break and retest of 9920/25 and the scalp short. Usually I'm on the eu but it's been garbage for me the last couple of days.
  • #27,589
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:46am Jan 25, 2011 7:46am
Quoting BurgerKing
i agree... and if you are a trend trader, this is what you dont want.
im a position trader looking for a bad aud coming soon.... my problem is timing:when to short wher to short... so far i suck at that
that would depend on where you have bought in the trend. I know a few who have positions from sub 90 (87 area) who will more than likely not fold there hands until there is a real fundamental reason to fold. If you are only getting some positions now then sure you are looking at the possibility of having to weather some storms. Ranging markets can be a scalpers delight but there will be some position people who will still make some money by playing safe and smart.

RT
  • #27,590
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:49am Jan 25, 2011 7:49am
Im short 9960 and 9940. 9960 has been moved to BE. Reversal will cost me a mere .8%. Would like to see the close below Thursday low and to break the lower shackles. Seem to be struggling to find the push out of parity but needs to cut this range.

Off topic but spewing I closed my EUR/CHF short from 1.3030 yesterday. Took the break of the daily range and closed at around 40 pips (1.2:1). Thing has serverly tanked...

RT
  • #27,591
  • Jan 25, 2011 7:59am Jan 25, 2011 7:59am
Quoting Razor_trader
that would depend on where you have bought in the trend. I know a few who have positions from sub 90 (87 area) who will more than likely not fold there hands until there is a real fundamental reason to fold. If you are only getting some positions now then sure you are looking at the possibility of having to weather some storms. Ranging markets can be a scalpers delight but there will be some position people who will still make some money by playing safe and smart.

RT

The carry traders - very long term traders...

I remember they did the same thing on NZDUSD, NZDJPY many years ago and RBNZ was up in arms trying to kill the NZD bull traders...

I currently have several shorts with avg price of 9950s... waiting for below 9900 to close... wishing for 9870.. if the push down is hard, will contemplate on 9840s to close
  • #27,592
  • Jan 25, 2011 9:29am Jan 25, 2011 9:29am
closed smaller short for 25 pips, larger posi still in with BE attached and lightened by 25%
  • #27,593
  • Jan 25, 2011 9:30am Jan 25, 2011 9:30am
Bad AUD, Good USD, and yet AUDUSD could not break cleanly 0.9900
must be strong defensive buyers...

I closed my positions @ 9920s.. instead of 9900 or 9890 earlier...

better in profit now, than gamble them back like what happened to me in dec

if this baby goes back up near parity, im shorting it before FOMC
  • #27,594
  • Jan 25, 2011 10:22am Jan 25, 2011 10:22am
Looking for another attempt to break below the 9900 level and close. good bearish strength in this hour. Lets see if we closed some shorts a little early lol
  • #27,595
  • Jan 25, 2011 10:34am Jan 25, 2011 10:34am
LAME PAIR!!!!
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #27,596
  • Jan 25, 2011 11:55am Jan 25, 2011 11:55am
LME LATEST - Metals hold above lows in PM, complex groggy after sell-off
Tue, Jan 25 2011

Base metals remained easier during the afternoon LME sessions, just about holding above their lows but sharply lower on the day after a heavy sell-off that left no metal untouched. Sentiment has turned increasingly jittery, with the mood in the complex undermined by concerns over economic activity in the eurozone and continued fears that leading consumer China will tighten monetary policy further.

Earlier, there was another big increase in stocks - up 4,525 tonnes at 271,300 tonnes, the highest for nearly 16 years.
  • #27,597
  • Jan 25, 2011 4:30pm Jan 25, 2011 4:30pm
Expecting next target for Aussie at 1.0200 level (200 pips above parity) before short to 0.9830 level then maybe to the famous Ely 0.8900 target. Actually, i don't see any short at all expect obvious small retrace. Timing indicating february 1st -2nd, maybe before. I could be wrong because nothing is sure in trading, but i put already my plan to execution according to this calculation. I wait and see if wrong or right. From now money management takes control of the trades.

Enjoy your trades.
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #27,598
  • Jan 25, 2011 4:42pm Jan 25, 2011 4:42pm
Ely, do you know what the difference is between experienced traders and inexperienced traders?

 

  1. Inexperienced traders have strong opinions.
  2. Experienced traders have fluid opinions.

  1. Inexperienced traders would rather lose money than lose their opinions.
  2. Experienced traders would rather lose their opinion than lose money, because the market is always right.

  1. Inexperienced traders shout their long/short bias opinions from the roof-tops.
  2. Experienced traders can call it both ways and for good reason.

  1. Inexperienced traders don't understand the impact of their bias on others or the potentially negative effects on other people's live accounts when their opinions are wrong, nor do they take any responsibility for this.
  2. Experienced traders have great respect for other people and their money, and exercise due caution as a result.

  1. Inexperienced traders treat this market like a game of chance where it doesn't matter too much if you are right or wrong today.
  2. Experienced traders treat this market with every conceivable respect, because being right or wrong today is the difference between making money or losing it.

Just be conscious that when you trumpet a certain bias over and over, it speaks volumes about you as a trader. Being unable to see the flip side or give it any recognition at all is always a worry and something that others should avoid putting too much faith in.

This is not a game. It is a deeply serious endeavour for most, day in and day out.

Willl AU go to .86 or .89? Maybe, or maybe not.

Good trading to you.

  • #27,599
  • Jan 25, 2011 5:10pm Jan 25, 2011 5:10pm
Level 4 picture is for the medium term...what happens on a daily basis, does not matter one iota.

EXPERIENCED traders were the only ones who saw the financial bubble coming!
In fact, i can't remember reading anything about it...only hearing a, "POP"!

On a daily biz, opened and closed on the long & short side for a few pips...but, the INEXPERIENCED Gut feeling tells me, the bigger picture is heading towards 0.8900.
EXPERIENCED side is telling me that these days nobody knows any better...in fact, we're just waiting & listening for the...."POP"!

Hope this "Popping" financial analysis helps
Sanks
Medium Term Level 4 Target 0.8600-0.8900

Corsa's parked up from Newcastle, Edinburgh to Aberdeen.
  • #27,600
  • Jan 25, 2011 5:10pm Jan 25, 2011 5:10pm
hi guys, pls dont fight in here, everyone has their own humble opinion, just show some respect and move on.
Logics do not apply in FOREX
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