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  • #370,481
  • Jan 23, 2011 8:57am Jan 23, 2011 8:57am
Quoting Chicky
........and develop a method to do that.

That's what most here struggle with, they keep on fighting the market and ignore the bigger picture.
  • #370,482
  • Jan 23, 2011 8:58am Jan 23, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Venice
I want to have further discussions on the options barriers and how they affect price when broken, or controlled.
I've commented before, but there are a few critical moving parts of barriers that often are not reported, unless Reuters or alternative sources where Hda and others get their information only implicitly report one flavor.

In relation to options, some barriers are knock-in, which means an option comes into force, with a strike that may or may not be at that level. Other barriers are knock-out, which means that an existing option is canceled at that level, with either some or zero rebate of the premium. And then, the option that was either knocked in or out can be a bet by the buyer of either up (call) or down (put).

There are also binary (aka digital) 'barriers', really 'strikes' which are levels at which the option will either pay zero or a fixed amount at expiry.

Finally, large OTC options are often struck with average rate provisions. That means that when we read of an expiration at some level, depending on what market levels have been, the crossing or not of that level at expiry may not have any effect, since the average could then be already firmly in or out of the money, and the last day's action (within reason) is not going to change it.

So the problems in using options to forecast bid or offer flow are that these are private structures, often with complicated terms and conditions. The exact nature of those terms and conditions are always covered by the trade secrets clauses that everyone from the desk to the back office have in their employment agreement. And the buyers do not generally want to disclose their option positions, even at expiry, because the holding of an option can indicate a lot about what else they may be holding or thinking about doing.

Bottom line is, even though there can be effects from barrier defenses or assaults, it is rarely ever crystal clear what those effects might be, just from knowing the level.
  • #370,483
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:01am Jan 23, 2011 9:01am
If my Sunday close above 1.3625 No Sell and we going more up 1.38
That how i read my chart
1.3625 strong R on daily but weekly suggest and attract PA to 1.3830
  • #370,484
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:04am Jan 23, 2011 9:04am
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  • #370,485
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:06am Jan 23, 2011 9:06am
Quoting cloggie
That's what most here struggle with, they keep on fighting the market and ignore the bigger picture.
Cannot say on behalf of others, maybe its the wait for the Lead or Turnaround Time that prevents them from playing the big picture. Slow and steady wins the race.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #370,486
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:08am Jan 23, 2011 9:08am
Quoting mercy seat
European Forex Technicals: JPY Weakening To Extend
21 Jan 2011, 08:29

By Francis Bray
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN





http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2011-01-21_20h48_ EURUSD _ 015min _ (1100 x 800).PNG (36.1 KB)


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif [url="http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=622927&stc=1&d=1295640402"][color=#22229c]2011-01-21_08h29_European...
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif 2011-01-20_07h45_Forex Focus - Inflation Dilemma For Dollar Fans.pdf (8.3 KB)



FOREX FOCUS: Inflation Dilemma For Dollar Fans
20 Jan 2011, 07:45


By Nicholas Hastings
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Inflation alarms are going off all over the world, creating a big dilemma for dollar fans.





;-)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2011-01-20_07h45_Forex Focus - Inflation Dilemma For Dollar Fans.pdf   8 KB | 301 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #370,487
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:09am Jan 23, 2011 9:09am
Quoting egkid
If my Sunday close above 1.3625 No Sell and we going more up 1.38
That how i read my chart
1.3625 strong R on daily but weekly suggest and attract PA to 1.3830
Dude can u pls show me the Strong resistance picture because i dint find any resistance level in my chart..i just want to know..i am newbie so if u just explain it then it would be gr8.

Thanks
  • #370,488
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:13am Jan 23, 2011 9:13am
Quoting AcidH4X
Dude can u pls show me the Strong resistance picture because i dint find any resistance level in my chart..i just want to know..i am newbie so if u just explain it then it would be gr8.

Thanks
me neither.
  • #370,489
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:14am Jan 23, 2011 9:14am
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  • #370,490
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:15am Jan 23, 2011 9:15am
Quoting egkid
If my Sunday close above 1.3625 No Sell and we going more up 1.38
That how i read my chart
1.3625 strong R on daily but weekly suggest and attract PA to 1.3830

I think above 1.3450 was the break out


Here is my weekly version showing 1.345 and 1.47

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Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #370,491
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:18am Jan 23, 2011 9:18am
Whoa weird!! Tim Sykes (yeah, the Tim Sykes) is now following me on Twitter, but I've never actually tweeted anything...
  • #370,492
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:32am Jan 23, 2011 9:32am
Quoting OldQuant
I've commented before, but there are a few critical moving parts of barriers that often are not reported, unless Reuters or alternative sources where Hda and others get their information only implicitly report one flavor.

In relation to options, some barriers are knock-in, which means an option comes into force, with a strike that may or may not be at that level....
Excellent. Thanks for the description.
  • #370,493
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:32am Jan 23, 2011 9:32am
Select your direction and the major:
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #370,494
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:38am Jan 23, 2011 9:38am
Quoting AcidH4X
Dude can u pls show me the Strong resistance picture because i dint find any resistance level in my chart..i just want to know..i am newbie so if u just explain it then it would be gr8.

Thanks
PA coming from under the cloud and now up touching edge of the cloud if we close above then we going higher.
If we stay inside the cloud the consolidation

It's a little complicated system there is much have to tell to understand how i c it through
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  • #370,495
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:49am Jan 23, 2011 9:49am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Where does it project if the chickens do show up? The next blue line?
im just scalping. T + expects 3650 T.. I dont know what it will do because this is a strong move just before close. but from what i c, i would say a pullback of some type. . i entered my last at short 3620. but closed cause i did not want to hold it over the weekend. im waiting for a candle. but will still scalp (with a good setup with small candles. ).. i cant long this close to resistance. if we go above 3685, i may start longing the retraces (pullbacks). i don't doubt we go back to 3520ish + (was 3516 now 3520) soon. we are 10% on the mapa scale above neutral. what i c from day and lower (excluding weekly and monthly) is setup for a lower move. that dont mean we cant go to 1.4 this week. it means my analysis says we should have a pullback. i will not long a long signal here at resistance. i will short a short signal here when i get one. weekly candles and lower say shorts are wrong. the nov. monthly candle mid is 3625. our current monthly top. usually a good place for a bounce or reversal.

my last short signal was at 3622... i just didnt want to hold it. over the weekend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #370,496
  • Jan 23, 2011 9:58am Jan 23, 2011 9:58am
weekly and daily

gator same here lets see i might be wrong
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  • #370,497
  • Jan 23, 2011 10:00am Jan 23, 2011 10:00am
Quoting egkid
PA coming from under the cloud and now up touching edge of the cloud if we close above then we going higher.
If we stay inside the cloud the consolidation

It's a little complicated system there is much have to tell to understand how i c it through
well said , under the cloud is retracement & so to cross 1st level cloud at 1.4281 ! 2nd 1.5144 !! & top level to confirm the bull & fly above 1.6037!!!
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #370,498
  • Jan 23, 2011 10:02am Jan 23, 2011 10:02am
Quoting gatorinla
im just scalping. T + expects 3650 T.. I dont know what it will do because this is a strong move just before close. but from what i c, i would say a pullback of some type. . i entered my last at short 3620. but closed cause i did not want to hold it over the weekend. im waiting for a candle. but will still scalp (with a good setup with small candles. ).. i cant long this close to resistance. if we go above 3685, i may start longing the retraces (pullbacks). i don't doubt we go back to 3520ish + (was 3516 now 3520) soon. we are 10% on the mapa...
Same thoughts.

it's already moving.

Ps. My charts show 1) 1.3516 as the bottom of the range from 1.3673, and 2) 1.3487 as the top of the range from 1.3302
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #370,499
  • Jan 23, 2011 10:04am Jan 23, 2011 10:04am
Quoting kill56
weekly and daily

gator same here lets see i might be wrong
it don't cost a dime to watch.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #370,500
  • Jan 23, 2011 10:04am Jan 23, 2011 10:04am
Quoting mercy seat
OK ...

One hour left until my connections will see its weekly closing/clôture ...

Not a big surprise ... but a little bit higher then traded from our side at least ... as we have had seen our major move projection as being done at 1.3563 - 1.3588 area ...

Dennoch hat mein System später einige kleine Justierungen bis in die Region von 1.36211 vorgenommen ...

New things and fresh input is looming for my systems ... although it was a lot of hard work ...

All eyes on closing/clôture ... end of week no. 3 ...

Today's result in multiple accounts...

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif 2011-01-21_12h39_Forex Focus - Cooling Hot Money In A Turkish Bath.pdf (8.3 KB)



FOREX FOCUS: Cooling Hot Money In A Turkish Bath
21 Jan 2011, 12:39

By Nicholas Hastings
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN


LONDON (Dow Jones)--Like many other popular emerging markets, Turkey has a problem with 'hot money'.




;-)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2011-01-21_12h39_Forex Focus - Cooling Hot Money In A Turkish Bath.pdf   8 KB | 351 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
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