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  • #370,341
  • Jan 22, 2011 8:20am Jan 22, 2011 8:20am
Quoting Taigen
Staying with my short position over the weekend was more of a roll of the dice than any kind of analysis. I think I might lose my lunch money on this one.
Keep track of the Bond market and the yields in Fixed Income segment.. that would give direction to Euro next.. not the blog link you quoted for Euro to be at parity with Dollar..
  • #370,342
  • Jan 22, 2011 8:25am Jan 22, 2011 8:25am
Quoting pkimnyc
Fundamentally there maybe no reason for rally but technically there is no sign of bears yet. Who know, fundi might drag euro down to the toilet, until I see the sign of bears, I'm going with my chart says not the news.
agree 100%

this happened in the last euro bull rally approaching 1.35... people were shouting reversal!! bear bear bear... even though charts were showing bull candles right up to the end of the week... we didn't even retrace/pullback/bounce at 1.35...

chart showing more up - 1.37, then 1.38... my bearish bat has completed its target already but 2nd target at 1.21 becomes invalid after euro breach the 1.42 level... lets see what happens when it reaches 1.38...

DO NOT SHORT THIS YET... If anything, just stay out of the market until bears wake up...
  • #370,343
  • Jan 22, 2011 8:39am Jan 22, 2011 8:39am
Quoting Taigen
Staying with my short position over the weekend was more of a roll of the dice than any kind of analysis. I think I might lose my lunch money on this one.
Yes sir, you are now just bidding on luck. I had a short position as well, but I cut it at 3520... all it took was the break of the previous daily candle high and were off...

You may get lucky and price may start back up at a lower price then when closed, but, I ask you this question? Roll the dice for little chance of retracement, or eat your loss and live trade another day...?
  • #370,344
  • Jan 22, 2011 8:42am Jan 22, 2011 8:42am
Quoting jaylovin
agree 100%

this happened in the last euro bull rally approaching 1.35... people were shouting reversal!! bear bear bear... even though charts were showing bull candles right up to the end of the week... we didn't even retrace/pullback/bounce at 1.35...

chart showing more up - 1.37, then 1.38... my bearish bat has completed its target already but 2nd target at 1.21 becomes invalid after euro breach the 1.42 level... lets see what happens when it reaches 1.38...

DO NOT SHORT THIS YET... If anything, just stay out of the market until bears...
Yup, I pulled the trigger to soon, but I was playing off of a minor double top last Monday. The last day you should have even been thinking about shorts is maybe half way through Tuesday, and even then way to late. I knew better, but didn't listen to my better judgement. c'est la vie... all part of trading.

If you trade the daily, like me, Thursday was an indecision day (inside bar), and really the trade I made to the short side was a gamble, but you could tell in the conviction of how strong the down moves were that their was nothing behind them.
  • #370,345
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:11am Jan 22, 2011 9:11am
I have stated no other reasoning other than a kind of hunchy luck analysis. The biggest drop I have been involved in so far was 60 pips. I'll survive but if I get 5, 10, 30 pips, well I can then go to McDonalds and celebrate.

I've received some great advice from this board. Do appreciate it.




Quoting Venice
Yes sir, you are now just bidding on luck. I had a short position as well, but I cut it at 3520... all it took was the break of the previous daily candle high and were off...

You may get lucky and price may start back up at a lower price then when closed, but, I ask you this question? Roll the dice for little chance of retracement, or eat your loss and live trade another day...?
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #370,346
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:12am Jan 22, 2011 9:12am
Quoting Venice
Yup, I pulled the trigger to soon, but I was playing off of a minor double top last Monday. The last day you should have even been thinking about shorts is maybe half way through Tuesday, and even then way to late. I knew better, but didn't listen to my better judgement. c'est la vie... all part of trading.

If you trade the daily, like me, Thursday was an indecision day (inside bar), and really the trade I made to the short side was a gamble, but you could tell in the conviction of how strong the down moves were that their was nothing behind...
there is more chance of longing this one.. i have a placed a long term small short at 1.3615... but its a very small position - i'm trying out swing trading as i want to quit intraday trading so i can get on with other things in life...

even though i know this is gonna go up more i am testing out my psychology of PA going totally against me in a real world scanario... if i get stopped out at 1.39 which is like 1% of my account then its fine...

for the time being placing heavier positions long at support levels till bear wakes up..
  • #370,347
  • Edited 9:32am Jan 22, 2011 9:21am | Edited 9:32am
Just checking chart why it continued up without almost any retracements ! making subwaves one after the other within limited ranges within the last 5th /c wave & may extend any up. apparently to end subwave 3 of it at some top still , 3650 /77 one good stop for it for next retracement 3465 possible limit down for wave 4 & again a 5th wave to run, 3650-3749 61.8% fib or up .
anyway next daily candle, possible ranging type, to constinute a set up perfection and possible retracement daily level from next candle or so & hence next 1 or more daily candles may end this up wave .
To me 3650, 77 , 3749 are possible stops up, other levels are 3827,4027 remains though . anyway price around or above 3650 market may cry for resume the trend & any long term trades long can be consider more risky than any short one except scalping & intraday swings . lets see .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #370,348
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:24am Jan 22, 2011 9:24am
Quoting jaylovin
agree 100%

this happened in the last euro bull rally approaching 1.35... people were shouting reversal!! bear bear bear... even though charts were showing bull candles right up to the end of the week... we didn't even retrace/pullback/bounce at 1.35...

chart showing more up - 1.37, then 1.38... my bearish bat has completed its target already but 2nd target at 1.21 becomes invalid after euro breach the 1.42 level... lets see what happens when it reaches 1.38...

DO NOT SHORT THIS YET... If anything, just stay out of the market until bears...
good call. well said
  • #370,349
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:29am Jan 22, 2011 9:29am
added monday german news very good.....

Quoting ovaforty
good call. well said
  • #370,350
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:47am Jan 22, 2011 9:47am
usdix chart , from weekly seems nice for shorts , 2 candles down there in rally may not likely the 3rd will confirm it . It is more bullish than temporary bear retracement , possible stop at 77.94,77.69 & 77.30/13, possible more to 76.0 to 76.13, not think any.so stall & hold any level to fight back great 87.45 & hence to care longs in eu at top/tops.
anything can happen beyound imagination though.
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #370,351
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:57am Jan 22, 2011 9:57am
Quoting fontu
usdix chart , from weekly seems nice for shorts , 2 candles down there in rally may not likely the 3rd will confirm it . It is more bullish than temporary bear retracement , possible stop at 77.94,77.69 & 77.30, possible more to 76.0 to 76.13, not think any.so stall & hold any level to fight back great 87.45 & hence to care longs in eu at top/tops.
anything can happen though beyound imagination though.
fontu
there's a chance 1.37 will be rejected... usdx may slow down fall or even start to reverse monday as i'm seeing exhaustion in au, gu, gold, oil and even chf and jpy not really moving much like euro...

just euro remains to start showing signs of exhaustion... it may be usdx and euro not correlated as usually reliable regarding this bull run...
  • #370,352
  • Jan 22, 2011 10:09am Jan 22, 2011 10:09am
Everything is telling me it will go down next week. Should I add hard? Not sure about that, but down we go.
  • #370,353
  • Jan 22, 2011 10:10am Jan 22, 2011 10:10am
Weekly resistances are sitting above the current price levels.
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  • #370,354
  • Jan 22, 2011 10:25am Jan 22, 2011 10:25am
Quoting jaylovin
there's a chance 1.37 will be rejected... usdx may slow down fall or even start to reverse monday as i'm seeing exhaustion in au, gu, gold, oil and even chf and jpy not really moving much like euro...

just euro remains to start showing signs of exhaustion... it may be usdx and euro not correlated as usually reliable regarding this bull run...
Ok , not think any in Monday , may take few days to week even .exhaustion? still not any sign perhaps in eu but signs that it afraid of allowing any retracement & crazy up even in a small ranges like round bottoms as if sellers keeping an eye on it & want or augmenting more up in a bull trap to sell at some good level.still bullish.

checking one chart with indicators on.
fontu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #370,355
  • Jan 22, 2011 10:35am Jan 22, 2011 10:35am
With the option barrier triggered @ 1.3600 I would expect the EU to reverse hard, if I understand this correctly.

Don't know much about all this option kind of stuff, trying to get educated on it, but if what I understand so far is through, that bank needs to reverse fast or will lose money the other way around................and it seems to handle about a LOT of money.
  • #370,356
  • Jan 22, 2011 10:43am Jan 22, 2011 10:43am
I mentioned this yesterday. Any chart pattern experts can either confirm it or slap me around?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=370367
  • #370,357
  • Jan 22, 2011 11:24am Jan 22, 2011 11:24am
According to me the weekly key point was 3518.. and this weekly closing is above that.. 3622 is my daily rasistance and on my platform it is closed below that at 3618.. the euro next move is depend on the opening price at monday.. if the price is above 3622 then once it crossed 3652 then the next target will be 3708, 3813 and 3895 and if open below then i expect some retrace towards 3562, 3518 and 3473..

The last two week up move showing that the next weekly targets are 3951, and 4212.

My those calculation will be invalid if we got any daily close below 3423.

Wish you all the best in next week.
  • #370,358
  • Jan 22, 2011 11:39am Jan 22, 2011 11:39am
Quoting attila
hmmm......
Attachment
your chart is misleading, and actually i'd really like to call it a fraud.
we have not reached the "trendline" you try to sell, as this is not a trendline at all.

second time i noticed this.
  • #370,359
  • Jan 22, 2011 11:44am Jan 22, 2011 11:44am
Quoting Mr Hatch
your chart is misleading, and actually i'd really like to call it a fraud.
we have not reached the "trendline" you try to sell, as this is not a trendline at all.

second time i noticed this.

lol

hows u weekend
  • #370,360
  • Jan 22, 2011 11:45am Jan 22, 2011 11:45am
Quoting Mr Hatch
your chart is misleading, and actually i'd really like to call it a fraud.
we have not reached the "trendline" you try to sell, as this is not a trendline at all.

second time i noticed this.
i'd like to second Hatch's statement... my chart doesn't match yours attila... sorry
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