The Element of Time in Trading | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

whether to change the trading strategy from time to time? 46 replies

time is set to GMT+0 time zone, what is my time adjustment? 0 replies

A switch: from part time trading to full time trading 8 replies

Time Compression Trading: Exploiting Multiple Time Frames in Zero Sum Markets 9 replies

Dear Full time/Part time Traders – Thanks for your time and help 7 replies

Attachments: The Element of Time in Trading
Exit Attachments

The Element of Time in Trading

  • #221
  • Edited 5:29pm Dec 31, 2010 5:16pm | Edited 5:29pm
Quoting grandpost
based on fib time zone and elliott pattern

so if you don't know elliott basics ....it won't make sense....
This makes sense to me --

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy times zones example one.gif Size: 15 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy times zones example two.gif Size: 12 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd times zones example one A.gif Size: 15 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd times zones example one B.gif Size: 15 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy times zones example 1a.gif Size: 14 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy times zones example 1b.gif Size: 13 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd times zones example 1c.gif Size: 15 KB



Post #216 also makes sense. I can see how you match net trend angle between the vertical lines of the Fib Time Zones, the earlier lines getting at least a visually apparent higher angle per % space between the lines.
In the charts above, I did a lesser goal, that of trying to align the zones with trend breaks that also produced shapes that carried from one zoned area to the next.
  • #222
  • Jan 2, 2011 2:52pm Jan 2, 2011 2:52pm
what made it easier for me is splitting the fib time zone to the same proportions you use in fib extension tool........easier for us to recognize......

Now the Secret before I die.......is after you measure one cycle wave 1 to 2 you will get fib time breakups.....you can split these again.....only if you know the elliott waves......

then to forecast the fib time zone expands, contracts, IT ALWAYS FITS to the bigger fib time break up.....and you expand and contract according to DOJIS and TURNING Points.....I may and may not show this later.......due to complexity. if interested you can search my posts..........I think it is the next building blocks to this technique.....
Quoting ha-pattern
This makes sense to me --

Post #216 also makes sense. I can see how you match net trend angle between the vertical lines of the Fib Time Zones, the earlier lines getting at least a visually apparent higher angle per % space between the lines.
In the charts above, I did a lesser goal, that of trying to align the zones with trend breaks that also produced shapes that carried from one zoned area to the next.
  • #223
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:45pm Jan 7, 2011 1:45pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mpla1.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #224
  • Edited 8:24am Jan 9, 2011 7:31am | Edited 8:24am
Attached Image


If we take 1.3434 as the starting point for the fibonacci spiral,as it was the starting pivot of this new year,
  • #225
  • Jan 19, 2011 10:53am Jan 19, 2011 10:53am
Time is a reflection of other factors, it is not the cause of the move. Think of it like a person riding a bike and leaving tracks in the sand. The tracks don't tell you where the person is going they tell you where he has been.

Here is a chart I made of the AUDUSD, see how the indicator change colour right on the low. The indicator is not based on price at all, or anything to do with chart based information.

Here is a call on the GBPUSD for a turn on the 22nd December 2011, the market did not turn exactly here, but reversed within 25 pips of the low, you could have held it with a 30 pip stop which is nothing trading a day chart.

The last chart is a AUDUSD trade on a Gartley pattern, these fail often unless you use time, very unreliable, but very good when used with a timing method. I used a method of timing based on what some people would call esoteric methods, but they work when used correctly. You won't get previous turns to give you future turns on a reliable basis. You have to know the reason for the turn before you can predict time.

As to the chap that said price is random, well he has a lot more work to do in his study of the markets. I can now predict a 200 point move in the EURUSD to a 2 day window, on the 27-27 of Feb 2011 the EURUSD will turn and reverse its trend, the move will be a minimum of 200 points. I am right about 70-80% of the time and this year I have had 100% success.

Lastly thanks JR, you can PM me and I will tell you what I used for this prediction.

All the very best to you all


Mike Haran
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: indicator not price based.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdharanfx.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4 analysis 19th jan 2011 (1).gif Size: 25 KB
  • #226
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:19am Jan 20, 2011 1:19am
you chart is very nice.
But one thing that. its need alot of Pips tp risk for that.. other thing you are good..

Quoting Mike Haran
Time is a reflection of other factors, it is not the cause of the move. Think of it like a person riding a bike and leaving tracks in the sand. The tracks don't tell you where the person is going they tell you where he has been.

Here is a chart I made of the AUDUSD, see how the indicator change colour right on the low. The indicator is not based on price at all, or anything to do with chart based information.

Here is a call on the GBPUSD for a turn on the 22nd December 2011, the market did not turn exactly here, but reversed within 25 pips of...
  • #227
  • Jan 20, 2011 4:39am Jan 20, 2011 4:39am
Quoting Mike Haran
Time is a reflection of other factors, it is not the cause of the move.
Anything else, and I'd agree. Up and down, yes, it's apparent. EXCEPT...
time offers the only constants:

  1. weekend gap
  2. bank holidays
  3. trading sessions
  4. news
  5. time frames

As to what they mean for trading, heck if I know. A few clues is all I've found, not enough to matter.

  • #228
  • Jan 20, 2011 4:51am Jan 20, 2011 4:51am
I would also add:

 

  1. the different time zones.

  • #229
  • Jan 20, 2011 8:20am Jan 20, 2011 8:20am
Quoting ha-pattern
Anything else, and I'd agree. Up and down, yes, it's apparent. EXCEPT...
time offers the only constants:

  1. weekend gap
  2. bank holidays
  3. trading sessions
  4. news
  5. time frames

As to what they mean for trading, heck if I know. A few clues is all I've found, not enough to matter.

Those aren't constraints on time. Those are merely events marked by time or measures of time. Does the clock care about NFP, xmas, and weekends, and time zones? No.
  • #230
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:01am Jan 20, 2011 11:01am
Quoting JR97
Those aren't constraints on time. Those are merely events marked by time or measures of time. Does the clock care about NFP, xmas, and weekends, and time zones? No.
Thanks for your (and the last poster's) comment.
I don't understand your note, though. How can anything constrain time, or, for that matter, an inanimate object care?

Time is a constant, in practical terms (not in astrophysics, though, from what I've read.) The clock, which frames time into seconds, minutes, etc., favors time as a constant. Traders, whether or not they incorporate it into their market study, abide with the noted measures of time. Traders make up the market. Thus, the noted measures of time can be exploited for a market study.

Maybe I was fishing for a new angle to approach one or more on the (continued) list; all I could get were modest effects on volatility, symmetry. Anyhow, using Time Zones and such approaches the condensed representation a chart has of the entire market, so it could be a moot observation.
  • #231
  • Jan 20, 2011 12:19pm Jan 20, 2011 12:19pm
In spite of what you might think the markets are not random. They are like a swiss watch and they are very precise indeed. I spent more hours then I care to imagine working on timing the markets. I figured how to convert time to price to predict future turns way in advance of any news.

How the hell can a price level predict a turn? I have no idea, I don't know why it works, its almost like the market already knows what it is going to do before it does it. Its not perfect, it misses a lot of turns, so I am working on making it better.

Yesterday I set a price level for the AUDUSD based on time and price, the timing was a couple of hours out but the price level was very sweet. I used the information encoded into the chart to work out the turn in price. Then as I was going to write this article I started to look at time and I found that the basic time from price prediction can be tweeked to give more turns, it was a nice breakthrough to make.

So time, why don't you get regular cycles, the reason is the cycles are generated using a random number generator that has its roots in about 20 different areas, rotation of the earth, which exchange is being passed by which planet, which planets are aligning, are they being balanced by another planet, is the sun being sheilded, where is the moon in relation to the earths magnetic field, whats the angulation of the earth to the sun. Gann talked about this, look for the cause of the move and look for that cause to repeat. Anyone that has studied his square of nine will be no wiser than when they started, but start using angular relationships and looking for key positions to trigger turns and you will be amazed.

I spent 2 days extracting which planets effect the eurusd, amazing all the big turns have key relationships, look for those relationships again and you should be able to see a turn.

I thought this was all rubbish when I started, if you had suggested that the planets move the market I would have told you that you were mad. A lot of you think that today the US data caused the USD to rise against the AUD. But it was falling from last night, I attach my chart that I snapped before the fall started. Astophysics and chaos theory thats all you need to trade the markets.

The second graph shows a close up of the AUDUSD going into a period of chaotic collapse, the frequency of the move is doubling, when this happens ususally you get a chaotic breakdown or streak, this is exactly what happend. The fact that it also occured right on the point that the moon was at its fullest is no suprise either.

Chaos theory applied to the market is not hard, frequency doubling, balance points you can predict them using many of the tools in your trading tool kit.

As I said its not hard you just got to think outside the box a bit, but you don't need to know this stuff, you can trade without knowing anything, you just lose a lot more.

Good luck

Mike Haran
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4 analysis 19th jan 2011 (1).gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chaotic collapse.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #232
  • Jan 20, 2011 2:45pm Jan 20, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Thanks for your (and the last poster's) comment.
I don't understand your note, though. How can anything constrain time, or, for that matter, an inanimate object care?...
I misread your comment. You said constants.. not constraints. My bad.

But I believe my comment still stands because the things you listed are not constants of time itself but merely timely events, measures of time, or effects of time.

One way to look at it is the Einstein approach. space and time are equivalent. So why not price and time as equivalents? Then time frames are just measures or labels for the "view". Hence why I measure in units of price-time instead of units of time.. ie minutes, hours, days, etc.

btw, "equivalent" and "equal" are not exactly the same.
  • #233
  • Jan 21, 2011 9:22pm Jan 21, 2011 9:22pm
I said I cracked time before............I cracked time now AGAIN.........The more you learn the more you see of what is happening.......I trade the PULSE.......THIS IS THE TRUTH........LIKE A DOCTOR holding your wrist and counting your PULSE...........Now I know what I do and how to do it........I am just a bad doctor and my mind is not at the level of work needed and the software available to me don't help................My inspirations and confirmations that I am not crazy comes from MANDELBROU...........then

MY INSANITY came from a paper I found about the cause of EARTHQUAKES...........AND AGAIN JUST YESTERDAY I CRACKED TIME AGAIN........I now know (needs to be proven) THE REASON or how THEY SET THE CLOCK.......it came to me when I was wrong (with a correct analysis just didn't apply it right because i was foolish and someone in this FORUM POINTED OUT TO ME what it WAS.............THEN I DISCOVERED How they set the clock.................

I used to use a different approach which was dynamic time with a time footprint ............(not the one by bryce and miner) but truely mine.......and no one showed it to me......(ofcourse I built on a base by others)

Now your thinking I keep on Saying I Cracked time but because my brain is all focused on what I now believe ARE the 3 BUILDING BLOCKS......I have shagged my trading getting in every swing trying to prove the method......and I am trying to make it SYSTEMATIC like ELLIOTT MADE his SYSTEMATIC AND EXPLICABLE...........

THIS is THE ONLY CORRECT APPROACH everything else is bull...........

I never wrote them before but here is idea:
1. Time Footprint
2. Dynamic wave forecast
3. Fault Shifts

and now I am trying to come up with the ULTIMATE which is the growth pattern in price to match THE DYNAMIC TIME.......In other words HOW THEY BUILD the breakouts and retracements based on creating this end result Harmonic Pattern..........Now to think so complicated if I do CRACK it .........then I am sure as I undwind and simplify back down again...............I will be the BEST TRADER in my hometown.....I am sure I am already.....lol

Markets are rigged in code from a growth formula that THEY know at anypoint 50 yrs on any single day and hour where price will be (the news is a lie to cover thier footprint) Price always predicts turns and so does time independently or each on it's own. and my way does not miss a single thing down to the minute (but can u use it right)

The planets -they are just a natural phenomenan of organized MATH or FIBO and that's because everything in the world is related to ONE (GOD) mathematically God is PROVEN and everything grows using the fibo relationship.........(sorry if this bothers others but this is just a fact Mecca is at the fibo cross section of the world)

Quoting Mike Haran
In spite of what you might think the markets are not random. They are like a swiss watch and they are very precise indeed. I spent more hours then I care to imagine working on timing the markets. I figured how to convert time to price to predict future turns way in advance of any news.

How the hell can a price level predict a turn? I have no idea, I don't know why it works, its almost like the market already knows what it is going to do before it does it. Its not perfect, it misses a lot of turns, so I am working on making it better.

Yesterday...
  • #234
  • Jan 22, 2011 5:37am Jan 22, 2011 5:37am
Throw elliot waves in the bin.

You are spot on with the earthquake idea, look at how markets often shift a day before or after an earthquake.

News is a load of horse S*** designed to outwit the naive, the markets are already encoded with the news before it happens.

Get your head around chaos theory, frequency doubling, leading to critical break down.

Fibonasty is not the cause it is the effect, market show fib ratios because, whatever is driving the system uses it somehow. Fib ratios would always work if they were the cause, they are a symptom of the system and it prints these in nature and the markets.

PM me and I will share some ideas with you, in fact if any one wants to work seriously on this and you can code, have studied physics, or understand price patterns you are welcome, in fact everyone is welcome,if you can make a contribution.

I am not intending to share these ideas with the masses, you have to work to help develop them. If you want a free ride, I suggest you get a bus pass.

Have a great weekend


Mike Haran
  • #235
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:38pm Jan 22, 2011 9:38pm
I am not at idea stage any longer but I am always willing to learn and see new things ...........

I know what I see and trade and have no question in my mind it is the truth of what is happening.........I just need to get familiar withit.....and make rules........

But If you want skype and I can see your screen and you carry me through your analysis .............Then maybe I can do the same for you.........if you like...........Trader ego aside; I like criticism; it only pushes me forward;

I am sure what I will show you will shock you and you will come to realize that you just never went through elliott with enough effort.....

forget the name elliott.......it is a series of related fib waves in time and price........(knowing elliott is the key) all elliott is turning points, breakouts, and retracements; other traders call them decision points/equilibrium and shockpoints.......YOu see one pulse and you will change your mind.......

But I am still willing to see your way; skype would be great........


Quoting Mike Haran
Throw elliot waves in the bin.

You are spot on with the earthquake idea, look at how markets often shift a day before or after an earthquake.

News is a load of horse S*** designed to outwit the naive, the markets are already encoded with the news before it happens.

Get your head around chaos theory, frequency doubling, leading to critical break down.

Fibonasty is not the cause it is the effect, market show fib ratios because, whatever is driving the system uses it somehow. Fib ratios would always work if they were the cause, they are a symptom...
  • #236
  • Jan 22, 2011 11:55pm Jan 22, 2011 11:55pm
Quoting Mike Haran
PM me and I will share some ideas with you, in fact if any one wants to work seriously on this and you can code, have studied physics, or understand price patterns you are welcome, in fact everyone is welcome,if you can make a contribution.

I am not intending to share these ideas with the masses, you have to work to help develop them. If you want a free ride, I suggest you get a bus pass.

Mike Haran
Hi fxsignal. I thought Forex Factory banned you awhile back.
  • #237
  • Jan 23, 2011 7:02am Jan 23, 2011 7:02am
Hello Pips Cruiser,

if you want to join in and help out with analysis, or ideas more than welcome. I realise that alone its too much for one person, I spend weekend looking at data and floating ideas about. I can't do it alone, cracking time predictions is too big. When I say no free ride, I mean everyone will be asked to contribute time not money. There are many posts on this forum where people ask for the holy grail, but don't want to help, or would rather use their free time for other more interesting pursuits.

All I am asking for is to get a dedicated group of people together, to crack this. I know its possible, if i can predict price to the nearest 10 pips, then whats to stop me doing it all the time, except the market does not work in that way, because sometimes the analysis fails, so then you bring in the next axis which is time, and lock onto a time zone, if price can be estimated then so can time.

Its a non profit organisation, if you want to join in do, as long as you can contribute, and are prepared to help out with the work then great. If you want to its up to you. I am not interested in pushing any commercial agenda here, getting to the bottom of this problem of time analysis is my ultimate goal.

The only way people are going to get somewhere in this world is by grouping together and working as a team, so thats where I am coming from.

All the best

Mike Haran
  • #238
  • Jan 23, 2011 2:13pm Jan 23, 2011 2:13pm
Quoting Mike Haran
Hello Pips Cruiser,

if you want to join in and help out with analysis, or ideas more than welcome. I realise that alone its too much for one person, I spend weekend looking at data and floating ideas about. I can't do it alone, cracking time predictions is too big. When I say no free ride, I mean everyone will be asked to contribute time not money. There are many posts on this forum where people ask for the holy grail, but don't want to help, or would rather use their free time for other more interesting pursuits.

All I am asking for is to get...
Hi Mike. I'll give that some thought. In the meantime, good luck with this FF incarnation.
  • #239
  • Jan 23, 2011 3:54pm Jan 23, 2011 3:54pm
Now I am re-incarnated I have learnt the error of my ways. Thanks for the support.

Mike
  • #240
  • Edited 4:06pm Jan 24, 2011 2:35pm | Edited 4:06pm
Amptitude doubling in a single push often leads to a chaotic collapse.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24th jan 2011.gif Size: 27 KB
0 traders viewing now