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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #761
  • Jan 20, 2011 4:11pm Jan 20, 2011 4:11pm
Hi guys

sorry to stress about this point

but I don't know what settings NanningBob uses for The EA after the trade activation

I mean:
breakeven,trailingstop,jumping stop,partial take profit,trailing step and so on

Could someone please share and help me?

IMO,this is very important
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  • #762
  • Jan 20, 2011 5:32pm Jan 20, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting swissforex
Hi guys

sorry to stress about this point

but I don't know what settings NanningBob uses for The EA after the trade activation

I mean:
breakeven,trailingstop,jumping stop,partial take profit,trailing step and so on

Could someone please share and help me?

IMO,this is very important
It's important but it also depends on many personal factors. Are you willing to accept more risk for higher overall profitability? How much time do you have to manage your own trades?

Remember that no-one has either forward or backward tested any of the possible combinations for moving stops and taking profits with MPTM on this system. That means the best you can hope for on this is someone's (more or less) educated guess.

Also, most peoples instincts are to give wide room on their stops to increase winning percentage, and to lock in or take profits early. Yet, successful traders, and especially trend traders, will almost universally say that the key to success is to cut losers short and let winners run. That advice runs almost directly contrary to people's instincts. I believe that this is one of the main reasons that most people fail.
  • #763
  • Jan 21, 2011 11:18am Jan 21, 2011 11:18am
Quoting Mediator
Hello Maestro,

you can use this in one chart for all Pairs listed without having them open in a seperated window and without template on. the dashboard has all indicators hardcoded inside.

#2: i did not look into the rules for now and could not tell that this system is a simple 2 MA system.

mediator

how can i get rid of a few of those currencies of that very useful indicator you have made? usdpln usdmxn etc....don't trade those sort of curencies.

also i dont want to see the spread either, can i get rid of that.
rat
  • #764
  • Jan 21, 2011 1:39pm Jan 21, 2011 1:39pm
If anyone has an idea for me that would be great I have instaled all the templates indicators and eas and some eas work and some dont the 1.0 buy and 1.0 sell dont along with the mptm the market long and short by steve work fine along with the 1.0 close buy and sell work fine i get errors when they compile and the little expert advisor guy is greayed out not colored like the others
thanks for your input in advance
  • #765
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:06pm Jan 21, 2011 3:06pm
ok Ive looked further into this all the eas that dont work say
<WinUser32.mqh> cannot open the program file
<stdlib.mqh> cannot open the program file
then give 2 errors warning and this happens when I try to compile the file and thanks again art
  • #766
  • Jan 22, 2011 12:16am Jan 22, 2011 12:16am
I tested this pair on the H4 variant. I had to make up some rules for stop and take profit. Here's what I decided on for a first shot.

Stop= Prior swing high or low. (In uptrend, price dives down below the 8. Stop is the distance from it's low point back to the 8 where the entry occurs.)

Take Profit= Once trade has moved in your favor the same number of pips as the stop, set break even. Then, exit when you either hit break even, or there is a close back across the 8.

This is a kind of compromise from the H1 system. The 8 approximates the TMA central band. That means that entries are now at the center band, and not at the 5. So entries will not be as good. Also, the exit is at a close at the center band, which is not as aggressive as the runner strategy I tested on H1. Also, my break even point is arbitrary, and I don't think its good. I'd be happy to hear some simple suggestions.

Here were the results

217 Trades
82 Winners - 38%
48 Break Even - 22%
87 Losers - 40%

The H1 test had 272 trades over the same period, and 40% winners. That was using a different stop (1/2 swing). The winning percentage using full swing stop as opposed to half swing stop is generally about 10% higher, or more. I think the winning percentage is probably comparable. Also, the 1/2 stop boosts trade frequency a bit, so my guess is, using the same stop, the number of trades is pretty close.

Expectancy - .38

Here again, I didn't use the same stop on the H1 tests, so its a bit hard to compare. With normal TP, the expectancy on half swing stops was .80, and it was .97 when letting things run. From the other tests, full stop expectancy tends to be about 1/2 or a bit less than the half swing stop expectancy. Again, my guess is that this expectancy is just a little bit shy of the other.

10,000 growth using Bob's money management -- $13,186
10,000 growth using 2%/trade - $39,197

I also did some better modeling of growth, accounting for minimum lot sizes, and also for spread/commission. Here are those numbers, assuming a 3 pip spread.

Bobs money management - $12,319
2%/trade - $27,920

On this pair, the strategy yielded 13.4 pips/trade. The spread takes a huge chunk out of the profits - over 25%. Even though this is an H4 system, with huge stops, I think the spread is worth thinking about when deciding which pairs to trade. If the expectancy dropped very much (as it seems to with some other pairs), anything over a very small spread could very well wipe out almost all profitability. (Keep in mind that UJ is the best pair I've tested so far.)
  • #767
  • Jan 22, 2011 1:46am Jan 22, 2011 1:46am
Quoting artfuls
ok Ive looked further into this all the eas that dont work say
<WinUser32.mqh> cannot open the program file
<stdlib.mqh> cannot open the program file
then give 2 errors warning and this happens when I try to compile the file and thanks again art
I have never seen these problems before so dont know how to answer them. Try getting the newest update of MT4 from your brokers download and try again.
  • #768
  • Jan 22, 2011 2:11pm Jan 22, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting rattyo
how can i get rid of a few of those currencies?

also i dont want to see the spread either, can i get rid of that.
Yes you can edit the currency list easily. Instead of dragging the indicator to a chart, right click and choose Modify. Then look for the list and add or remove the ones you want and Save.

You can remove the spread too, but you'll have to dig a little deeper.

Hopefully Stevegee will not mind me posting some modifications of his NB panel. I made some changes to make it a little more helpful for me. These are not his changes and you do not need to use this if you don't want to. The changes are:

v. 1.2.1:
1- Changed the colors so that they are dark red or green if the TMA is going the same direction as the trend, light red or green if TMA is converging with 240MA.

v. 1.2.4 & 1.2.4.1:
2- Changed the ready indicator text from “set” to the following:
- “with TMA”, if TMA is in sync with the trend, dark color
- “against TMA”, if TMA is not in sync, light color
- “trend change”, if the TMA is closing in on the 240MA, opposite color. (I used a cross of the outer TMA band over 240MA as the trigger)
- “countertrend”, if, for example, a buy sets up with TMA going up but in a downtrend, opposite color.

In v. 1.2.4, I changed part of the trigger so if the 5x5MA is above/below the mid TMA it sends the signal if the other criteria are met. In v. 1.2.4.1, I put it back to halfway between the mid and outer TMA like the original; possibly better signals.

Of course, all this may be meaningless if we go to a 4H system, then will need to edit the parameters.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 NB Dashboard 1.2.1.mq4   7 KB | 396 downloads
File Type: mq4 NB Dashboard 1.2.4.mq4   10 KB | 414 downloads
File Type: mq4 NB Dashboard 1.2.4.1.mq4   10 KB | 624 downloads
  • #769
  • Jan 22, 2011 7:54pm Jan 22, 2011 7:54pm
I tested the H4 system on CADUSD, but I used an additional, somewhat judgement prone, filter. I followed the standard rules, but I also only traded when the 8 was either pointing in the direction of the trend, or near flat. If it was tilted too much the other direction, I did not take the trade. The attached chart will show what I mean.

Stop loss was at the previous high/low. I moved to Break Even when the trade moved the plus the amount of the stop. (I also calculated this for BE +10, but the calculation does not take into account the loss of any winning trades, so the number is too optimistic. My casual observations, however, suggest that you could take modest gains on the break even trades without having too much of an impact on the winners.)

I already tested this on the H1 system, and the results were disappointing. I will restate them here:

"Stop Loss at Previous High/Low
238 Trades
110 Winners
46% Winning Percentage
.14 Expectancy

Stop Loss at 1/2 Previous High/Low
312 Trades
103 Wins
33% Winning Percentage
.49 Expectancy"

Also, you the results of my test on USDJPY suggests that the H1 system is probably more powerful than the H4 system. So I was very curious to see if this additional filter would make a difference. (And yes, I realize its basically the angle, or convergence, filter that people talked about early on.)

Here are the results:

193 trades
58 Wins - 30%
89 Break Even - 46%
46 Losses - 24%

Already, that's pretty remarkable. Only 24% losses. And the win/loss ratio is 1.26:1.

Average pips/trade: 28.6

Expectancy - .98

From what I can tell, the addition of this filter more than doubled the performance of the system. I don't know if it would have the same effect on the one hour system or not.

I used my more realistic model for calculating gains. I'm using a 3.5 pip spread, which I think is probably high for this pair (at least with my broker).

With 2% risk/trade 10,000 grows to $167K
Using the +10 Break even, it grows to $352K

Drawdown is very reasonable. One draw down of 9%, and the next biggest is 8%.



For giggles, the sweet spot for this series of trades is 30% risked per trade. At that level, $10,000 would theoretically grow into $21.3 trillion. That's assuming that you could find a broker who would let you trade 12.4 billionstandard lots at 50:1 leverage, and that the same broker would get you filled with no slippage I hear Oanda is pretty good at that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11508143_ MBT MetaTrader 4 - [USDCAD,H4].jpg Size: 110 KB
Attached Image
  • #770
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:19pm Jan 22, 2011 9:19pm
just wanted to let you guys no I and fxdd figured it out I did not have the 2 files in the include folder all working now thatks for your help
  • #771
  • Jan 22, 2011 9:41pm Jan 22, 2011 9:41pm
duffypratt I like the way your using the 8ma slope as a filter.

You would take the trades as price passes though the ma and not at the close of the bar correct?

But I would assume that it would be pretty difficult to trade manually using that filter just because the 8ma is often flickering up, flat or down with every couple of ticks (unless we're in a strong trend). Would be nice if someone could code that filter into the EA.

Even though i'm using the 4hr chart, I would have to keep a constant eye on the charts in order to be sure the 8ma is sloped correctly as price attempts to cross it. As price pulls back the ma will obviously turn also. I know I couldn't do it.

thx,
todd

Quoting duffypratt
I tested the H4 system on CADUSD, but I used an additional, somewhat judgement prone, filter....
  • #772
  • Jan 22, 2011 11:39pm Jan 22, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting todd960960
duffypratt I like the way your using the 8ma slope as a filter....
Yes, the entry occurs on the cross of price with the 8. That's how Bob's EA works.

I don't think the snake head should be that big a problem for a couple of reasons. First, the MAs are HL/2 Smoothed. They shouldn't move all that much in real time. More important, when testing, I make my decision about the filter before I see the bar where the entry occurs. Finally, I think this is an area for judgment, and that's OK, because the system is pretty robust even without this filter. Basically it means that when the MA isn't near flat and moving against the trend, you stay out of the trades. (I'm even considering using this as a basis for countertrend trading. If I did that, it would mean that the relationship of the 60 and 8 becomes solely a basis for deciding how to trade when the 8 is flat. I'm still not decided on that one.)

I haven't decided how much screen time this will require. With a decent alarm system, it might require being near the computer alot, but wouldn't necessarily need active watching.
  • #773
  • Jan 23, 2011 3:12am Jan 23, 2011 3:12am
NanningBob

what MA's are you using on a 4hr chart. at this moment in time?

I see in a few of you earlier posts your using a 25sma , 5 shift 1 LWMA & 2 LWMA,
rat
  • #774
  • Edited 6:29am Jan 23, 2011 6:18am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting rattyo
NanningBob

what MA's are you using on a 4hr chart. at this moment in time?

I see in a few of you earlier posts your using a 25sma , 5 shift 1 LWMA & 2 LWMA,
ma 60 AND ma 8. I read the 4H chart and trade off of it with RWB lines or go back down and enter off of the 1H chart. Not doing much right now though leaving Wednesday for Hong Kong. The bounce off the 8MA is similar to entering off of the 1H. I think it is an easier read, less noise.
  • #775
  • Jan 23, 2011 11:07am Jan 23, 2011 11:07am
Quoting duffypratt


... For giggles, the sweet spot for this series of trades is 30% risked per trade. At that level, $10,000 would theoretically grow into $21.3 trillion. That's assuming that you could find a broker who would let you trade 12.4 billionstandard lots at 50:1 leverage, and that the same broker would get you filled with no slippage I hear Oanda is pretty good at that.
Trillionaire - hmm, that has a nice ring to it. See y'all in the South Pacific!
Sorry - couldn't resist ... a bit of Sun. a.m. jocularity
  • #776
  • Jan 23, 2011 5:32pm Jan 23, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting duffypratt
On this pair, the strategy yielded 13.4 pips/trade. The spread takes a huge chunk out of the profits - over 25%. Even though this is an H4 system, with huge stops, I think the spread is worth thinking about when deciding which pairs to trade. If the expectancy dropped very much (as it seems to with some other pairs), anything over a very small spread could very well wipe out almost all profitability. (Keep in mind that UJ is the best pair I've tested so far.)

In response and amplification to Duffy’s comment about how much effect spread can have on trading results let me share part of a spreadsheet I use and update about 1 weekend per month to evaluate which pairs to trade.

Pair Spread 2ATR Pips Slippage NetPips %2ATR ASK Profit
USDJPY 1.9 53.3 7. 13% 49.5 92.87% 82.632 $4.09
EURUSD 2.1 110.4 3.80% 106.2 96.20% 1.33943 $14.22
GPBUSD 3.2 109.9 5.82% 103.5 94.18% 1.59116 $16.47
CADCHF 5.6 94.1 11.90% 82.9 88.10% 0.96966 $8.04




Here is how I calculated the results in the different columns:
The Spread comes from the website of the broker I use.


The 2ATR Pips are from the TMA indicator set at 2ATRon a 4HR chart. I subtracted the upper band from the center band.


Slippage for USDJPY is (1.9*2)/53.3 = 7.13%

Net Pips for USDJPY is 53.3-(1.9*2) = 49.5

% 2ATR for USDJPY is 100-7.13 = 92.87

Ask is the center TMA band value

Profit is calculated on an assumed trade from the center TMA band to the upper band for USDJPY with 0.01 lot this is 49.5*82.632 *0.1 = $8.04

The ATR Range varies over time it has increased for many pairs since I last calculated these values a month or so ago.

If you cannot trade every pair this kind of information can help you decide which trade to take assuming that you have several good choices. Or it may help you choose which pairs to trade consistently, perhaps using one of the EA’s when they are debugged and ready for live accounts.

At different times in your trading career you might choose different types of pairs.

As a beginning trader or as you are learning this system you might choose JPY pairs because they have less leverage and less return so they are less risky. Any mis-trades mistakes or just a normal series of losing trades will result in the lowest losses. This is very important on accounts of $1000.00 or less.

As your experience level and account grow you may choose to go with EURUSD or GPBUSD to get the most bang for your buck.

When your account is large enough and you have enough experience to trade several pairs simultaneously with higher effective leverage, you could adjust your lot sizes to get the same cash return per trade on each pair. For example .04 lots of USDJPY and .01 lots of GPBUSD would each yield about $16.00 with a 2ATR move. This would help to make the reward to risk equal for all your trades.
  • #777
  • Edited 12:55am Jan 24, 2011 12:00am | Edited 12:55am
I'd like to share my test results from just this month. I know that's not a good comprehensive sampling but I'm tired of looking at the charts just now. I went through all 27 or 28 currencies that I have in my list and applied these rules gathered from Duffy and Bob:

In an uptrend with 8MA above 60MA, wait for price to break below the 8MA and then Buy on a cross above, sometimes on the same bar. I do not wait for a close. However, I did filter out trades where the 8MA was too steep an angle counter to the trend. Right now that's a visual thing but I hope to code it into my own personalized EA or at least the indicator panel. I did not use the RWB (sorry Bob) because I don't understand how to use it in this new system.

For SL I used 20 pips below the recent swing, which sometimes is the entry bar. Move to BE after price moves in profit equal to the SL, or if it lingers around 20 or 30 pips for 3 or 4 bars. Also close the trade per Bob's 2 bar/8 hour rule if it's not going anywhere.

For TP I wait until price has moved 100 pips from entry and then trail the SL 10 pips below the lower of the last 2 bars, not counting the current one. This means you don't get "all the money", but if it's profitable, I don't care. Some of the JPY pairs rarely moved 100 pips so I may want to adjust them to 50 or 75.

The reverse for Sells.

I logged 97 trades (shown in the spreadsheet), 7 are still open, there were only 7 full losses and quite a few BEs. Total pips using the same lot size for every currency (which I would always adjust to my risk level) is 1832 pips after paying the spread. Of course on all the BEs, you wouldn't be paying the spread.

Hope someone else finds this helpful.

Update: I just calculated the P/L using 1% risk on my account and that would have produced nearly USD$3500 since Jan 6! Unfortunately with an average of 30+ trades per week, my account isn't large enough to cover the margins, thanks to the stupid new US rules! I'm attaching a graph starting with $5000 which should be enough to cover the margins for all open trades at 1/2% risk.

Eric
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 4H test.xls   40 KB | 510 downloads
  • #778
  • Jan 24, 2011 6:12am Jan 24, 2011 6:12am
Quoting ericjschroed
I'd like to share my test results from just this month. I know that's not a good comprehensive sampling but I'm tired of looking at the charts just now. I went through all 27 or 28 currencies that I have in my list and applied these rules gathered from Duffy and Bob:

In an uptrend with 8MA above 60MA, wait for price to break below the 8MA and then Buy on a cross above, sometimes on the same bar. I do not wait for a close. However, I did filter out trades where the 8MA was too steep an angle counter to the trend. Right now that's a visual thing...
Good stuff. I don't know if you can do it now. My tests are showing about 1/3 Break Even trades. If you move the stop to BE+10, you barely make a dent in the winners from what I can see. And the profitability will go way up.

I'm curious what effect you think your trailing stop has, and also what you see as a result of pulling trades after two bars if there isn't any motion.
  • #779
  • Jan 24, 2011 8:49am Jan 24, 2011 8:49am
Does your dashboard reflect this stategy


Quoting ericjschroed
I'd like to share my test results from just this month. I know that's not a good comprehensive sampling but I'm tired of looking at the charts just now. I went through all 27 or 28 currencies that I have in my list and applied these rules gathered from Duffy and Bob:

In an uptrend with 8MA above 60MA, wait for price to break below the 8MA and then Buy on a cross above, sometimes on the same bar. I do not wait for a close. However, I did filter out trades where the 8MA was too steep an angle counter to the trend. Right now that's a visual thing...
  • #780
  • Jan 24, 2011 9:52am Jan 24, 2011 9:52am
Quoting duffypratt
Good stuff. I don't know if you can do it now. My tests are showing about 1/3 Break Even trades. If you move the stop to BE+10, you barely make a dent in the winners from what I can see. And the profitability will go way up.

I'm curious what effect you think your trailing stop has, and also what you see as a result of pulling trades after two bars if there isn't any motion.
Yes, I may try the BE+10. I used the trailing stop in place of a specific TP and many successful trend traders I studied will closely follow a TS in a fast moving market. However, I may put in a specific TP such as, 200, or it might be better to adjust it to the currency's ATR or volitility, as mentioned with the JPY pairs. Also, after closing the trades with no activity it quite often went the other direction or gave me a new entry a few bars later. I just have to figure out how to trade this since London session is my sleep time and that accounts for nearly 1200 of the 1800 pips profit. Maybe I'll just have to plan to lose some sleep while I get rich! Or learn to be happy with the 600. Or if I can code an EA similar to Steve's that waits for a setup (a move between the 8 and 60) before triggering the trade.
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