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  • #370,301
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:26pm Jan 21, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting Taigen
Can't a guy hope? C'mon baby, snake eyes!
"Hope" is not really something that the market cares about.

Have a good weekend all, market has treated me nicely so far this year.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #370,302
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:32pm Jan 21, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting Taigen
Can't a guy hope? C'mon baby, snake eyes!
do you position trade?
  • #370,303
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:34pm Jan 21, 2011 4:34pm
I was referring to me but I certainly get your drift. If it goes against me, I just view that as another opportunity to better my position. I have to say that the market has been pretty good to me as well.



Quoting KillerWhale
"Hope" is not really something that the market cares about.

Have a good weekend all, market has treated me nicely so far this year.

Shamu
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #370,304
  • Edited 4:53pm Jan 21, 2011 4:42pm | Edited 4:53pm
it seems to me G/U weekly is forming a perfect HS.
same e/u. am i seeing things?
  • #370,305
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:49pm Jan 21, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting dennis_ger
I watched the options expiries as you posted the last days.
I think 10 am may indeed be a great opportunity to short for a retracement. I iwll watch that closely.
So viel nur mal zu den ach so nützlichen options expiries ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #370,306
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:54pm Jan 21, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting attila
it seems to me G/U weekly is forming a perfect HS.
same e/u. am i seeing things?
do you think we topped?
  • #370,307
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:55pm Jan 21, 2011 4:55pm
hmmm......
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  • #370,308
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:56pm Jan 21, 2011 4:56pm
Quoting pkimnyc
do you think we topped?
not sure. my charts say so, but we yet have to see it.
  • #370,309
  • Jan 21, 2011 6:19pm Jan 21, 2011 6:19pm
Not much of a fan of trend-lines, it is hard to ignore the obvious...

A comparative look at benchmarks of a few other pairs may hold the keys to the next weeks printing. ( PTL )

The 200EMA serves as a dynamic target and support/resistance line, and for GJ, EU, EG we are pretty much right on the money...

On the daily, I would say that is pretty impressive.

As the pairs seem to move in sync, could we see resistance hold on the JPY pairs and start a retrace? If so, as EG is sitting at resistance, will the Euros start to crush back harder?

Time will be the teller, just figured the charts were mentionable...

The Weekend Starts HERE!

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #370,310
  • Jan 21, 2011 6:57pm Jan 21, 2011 6:57pm
Well, I use a guru for numbers on the fibonacci ratio and other indicators which seem to be fairly accurate. But I also tend to short so I usually wait for the high side with the expectation that I may be as much as a 100-200 pips off so I position small and exponentially position larger as it works against me. I can usually take up to 6 positions before I get this sinking feeling and take a proscribed loss which doesn't happen too much but happens enough to keep me humble.

I'm fairly new at this but am catching on.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #370,311
  • Jan 21, 2011 7:06pm Jan 21, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting Taigen
Well, I use a guru for numbers on the fibonacci ratio and other indicators which seem to be fairly accurate. But I also tend to short so I usually wait for the high side with the expectation that I may be as much as a 100-200 pips off so I position small and exponentially position larger as it works against me. I can usually take up to 6 positions before I get this sinking feeling and take a proscribed loss which doesn't happen too much but happens enough to keep me humble.

I'm fairly new at this but am catching on.
i see. yea, i used to do that too. can be very profitable when it works out.
good luck with your trading.
  • #370,312
  • Jan 21, 2011 7:18pm Jan 21, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting pkimnyc
i see. yea, i used to do that too. can be very profitable when it works out.
good luck with your trading.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #370,313
  • Jan 21, 2011 7:49pm Jan 21, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting Magix
didn't mean in sarcastic way.
  • #370,314
  • Jan 21, 2011 7:59pm Jan 21, 2011 7:59pm
the happiest thing is the sculp order turned into a position.
lol,
well . monday, monday monday
  • #370,315
  • Jan 21, 2011 8:12pm Jan 21, 2011 8:12pm
Quoting mercy seat
So viel nur mal zu den ach so nützlichen options expiries ...
wie ich schon sagte: "watch that" - didn't turn out to form any short signal (or even just a move to the downside).
  • #370,316
  • Edited 8:30pm Jan 21, 2011 8:23pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting Taigen
I position small and exponentially position larger as it works against me. I can usually take up to 6 positions before I get this sinking feeling and take a proscribed loss which doesn't happen too much but happens enough to keep me humble.
You understand, of course, that what you are describing is the original, quintessential Margingale, yes? That was the betting sequence 1, 2, 4, 8... which was demonstrated to not change the expectation of the game (you win back all your losses plus one, at the first winning outcome), but accelerate the probability of ruin. If you exponentially increase your position as it moves against you, that's doing the same thing.

Martingales users operate with faith in 'maturity of chances', or, 'for every head there is a tail`. The equivalent of this, in markets, is 'this move will reverse, sooner rather than later.' Most of the time, both come to be. But when (in the long run, not "if") they don't, the house limit, or the margin call, awaits in the shadows.

Be careful.
  • #370,317
  • Jan 21, 2011 9:34pm Jan 21, 2011 9:34pm
Quoting vox dei
bought early at 3427, tp1 3508, preliminar tp2 3623. my eyes are now on 3458. dpp and resistance confluence make this a key intraday level. either way its a free ride today and i sure need one as i'm still far from the top 5%
all predictive levels were played to the pip, but...

thursday: i've removed be after review plan and made 80 pips
friday: i was stopped and gave it back to the market...

*sigh*
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #370,318
  • Jan 21, 2011 10:19pm Jan 21, 2011 10:19pm
When I figured it out on my own, I got stung quite a bit in the beginning because I didn't pace it right and would often margin out. What I have since learned is to space it out by about 50 pips or more. It seems to work pretty good when the market is not whipsawing. I also figure a predetermined loss if it goes against me. I scalp probably more than I do 'Margingale' based on short runs either way of 5 - 30 pips. And then there is gambling on the Friday close. Most of time it works for me but even when it doesn't, I'm not betting the kitchen sink on it.


Quoting OldQuant
You understand, of course, that what you are describing is the original, quintessential Margingale, yes?...
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #370,319
  • Jan 21, 2011 11:30pm Jan 21, 2011 11:30pm
Quoting Taigen
I scalp probably more than I do 'Margingale' based on short runs either way of 5 - 30 pips. And then there is gambling on the Friday close.
When I read this, I thought, hey, that's a really funny pun on 'margin' and 'marTingale', and then I noticed in your quote that that's how I spelled it originally. I'm embarrassed: it is martingale, but the other way is pretty descriptive, too, even if unintended.
  • #370,320
  • Jan 22, 2011 1:12am Jan 22, 2011 1:12am
Quoting ts63
broken TL
Old Resistance (former tops) now turned into support (yesterday low)
huge H&S
+USD CAD Daily bearish pinbar about to break = USD bear
short = suicidal
and voila :-)
easy pips
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