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ES Discussion

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 21, 2011 3:21am Jan 21, 2011 3:21am
Hoping for active discussion on S&P500, please contribute!

Short @ 1279.10
Stop @ 1282.6
Target open

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #2
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:35am Jan 21, 2011 3:35am
  •  gogsy
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: sweeter after difficulties | 8 Posts
Hey Bear,

Good thread to start.

Are you running cash or futures?

Ta
  • #3
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:57am Jan 21, 2011 3:57am
Quoting gogsy
Hey Bear,

Good thread to start.

Are you running cash or futures?

Ta
Hi gogsy,

futures via fxcm feed
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #4
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:15am Jan 21, 2011 4:15am
I watch ES in between my GU trades to pass the time. I don't have much to talk about other than post my chart.

Cheers!

Looks like a short setting up to me...

Did you know FXCM MT4 has SPX?
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  • #5
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:22am Jan 21, 2011 4:22am
Quoting pilotui
I watch ES in between my GU trades to pass the time. I don't have much to talk about other than post my chart.

Cheers!

Looks like a short setting up to me...

Did you know FXCM MT4 has SPX?
Didn't notice but I see now
Thanks for the chart!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #6
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:38am Jan 21, 2011 4:38am
Quoting USD-Bear
Hoping for active discussion on S&P500, please contribute!

Short @ 1279.10
Stop @ 1282.6
Target open

Attachment
No go, stopped at 1282.60
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #7
  • Edited 5:48am Jan 21, 2011 5:31am | Edited 5:48am
...market did not ''complete'' the pattern to the upside; the 23.6 and 30.9 price extensions handle proved too hard to clear.

Market needs to overcome the 1280 to 1284 handle in order to establish again a bullish pattern; to the downside a breach of the 1270 handle, and a subsequent retest and bounce off of the 1274 to 1275 handle with subsequent lower lows would reinforce again and show a continuation of further downwards pressure.

Best.

(In chart showing the up-Fib, yesterday was really crucial, the market retested the 61.8 Fib level, could not breach it, and the subsequent lower lows and the break of the established price swing low led the market to find itself clearing all the way through and down to the 38.2 Fib projection price level.)
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  • #8
  • Jan 21, 2011 10:15am Jan 21, 2011 10:15am
Demo of course... Sold 2 contracts Short
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  • #9
  • Jan 21, 2011 10:55am Jan 21, 2011 10:55am
Quoting pilotui
Demo of course... Sold 2 contracts Short

Got it
  • #10
  • Jan 25, 2011 9:56am Jan 25, 2011 9:56am
2 Strategies-

First Trading Day of the Month:
Buy at the open of the first trading day of the month. Sell at the close. 71% of the time the market has moved higher. This excludes February and August, because the first trading days are usually quite bearish.

Option Expiration:
Sell at the open, usually with a 6 point target and 4 point stop. It usually drops (65-75% of the time) on the open on option expiration day.
  • #11
  • Jan 25, 2011 10:07am Jan 25, 2011 10:07am
  •  gogsy
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: sweeter after difficulties | 8 Posts
Quoting USD-Bear
No go, stopped at 1282.60

Hey bear

Have you given up on this already.

I was looking forward to your insights!
  • #12
  • Jan 25, 2011 10:57am Jan 25, 2011 10:57am
  •  gogsy
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: sweeter after difficulties | 8 Posts
Quoting JFogel
2 Strategies-

First Trading Day of the Month:
Buy at the open of the first trading day of the month. Sell at the close. 71% of the time the market has moved higher. This excludes February and August, because the first trading days are usually quite bearish.

Option Expiration:
Sell at the open, usually with a 6 point target and 4 point stop. It usually drops (65-75% of the time) on the open on option expiration day.

Hey JF

That is an interesting observation. It certainly rings true for Januarys expiry - got a good sell off into the close!
  • #13
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:14pm Jan 25, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting gogsy
Hey bear

Have you given up on this already.

I was looking forward to your insights!
Sorry gogsy,
1. was occupied elsewhere (gold)
2. I had the impression we were in a startfase of a major ES turn.
Although I'm sure this market will collapse in due time, I can't find enough arguments that time has arrived. It's all very complicated with QE2 and it's artificial effects on ES

I think we'll have to wait little more for better patterns to base shorts on, longs out of the question for me.

H4:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #14
  • Jan 26, 2011 2:29am Jan 26, 2011 2:29am
  •  gogsy
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: sweeter after difficulties | 8 Posts
Quoting USD-Bear
Sorry gogsy,
1. was occupied elsewhere (gold)
2. I had the impression we were in a startfase of a major ES turn.
Although I'm sure this market will collapse in due time, I can't find enough arguments that time has arrived. It's all very complicated with QE2 and it's artificial effects on ES

I think we'll have to wait little more for better patterns to base shorts on, longs out of the question for me.

H4:
Attachment

Hey Bear

I have been seeing a pullback for a while now also. As you described the QE injection to the PD's is affecting this.

Any pullbacks at the moment are being bought!

Having said that the $vix has broken out strongly to the upside, so I am awaiting a confirmation to short!

Some dollar strength would help in this regard too off support!

We shall see
  • #15
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:37am Jan 26, 2011 10:37am
The best ones I read (you can read them too!) were in a free article online. I can't remember where I read them, but just google something to the extent of 5 simply powerful s&p strategies. I think that's what it was called.


On a separate note, here are a few excellent, very simple S&P strategies that I have back-tested. I was doing a study on Moving Averages and how they impact the S&P and this is what I have found.

7SMA has moved higher for 19 consecutive bars, Bar 6 (6 days later) has closed higher 78% of the time by an average of 10 points, and a highest close of 42 points.

The same is true of the 8MA moving higher for 20 consecutive bars

If the 10SMA has moved higher 22 consecutive bars, and the 6MA has moved higher 3 consecutive bars, bar 10 has closed higher 70% (212 times) than the occurrence bar, by an average of 13 points.

This is a weird one that I accidentally stumbled upon. If the USDJPY daily 15Ma has moved higher for 10 consecutive bars, and Oil (CL) 10MA has moved lower for 4 consecutive bars, the S&P has moved higher for 72% of the time at bar 10, leading all the way up to 80% by bar 16 by an average of 34.39 points.

I have several more, but they are almost all along those lines.
  • #16
  • Jan 28, 2011 1:55pm Jan 28, 2011 1:55pm
  •  gogsy
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: sweeter after difficulties | 8 Posts
Well that seems to have gives us the $VIX kick up!

Will just need to see if the BTFD gang come back again!
  • #17
  • Feb 7, 2011 3:59am Feb 7, 2011 3:59am
Trying another short here @ 1315

H4:

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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #18
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:02am Feb 7, 2011 4:02am
shorting es is a sure way to go broke
  • #19
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:08am Feb 7, 2011 4:08am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
shorting es is a sure way to go broke
Not planning to......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #20
  • Feb 7, 2011 4:09am Feb 7, 2011 4:09am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
shorting es is a sure way to go broke

I'm rather liking it for short around here, subject to some candle confirmation.

It's not noticeable on the daily or weekly, but the monthly may find some resistance here.
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