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  • #3,621
  • Edited 9:18am Jan 21, 2011 8:56am | Edited 9:18am
Quoting iero4
You are right. From my very little experience in trading I have noticed that Fridays are the worst days to trade. I have experienced many losses. Anyway, if I had kept in mind that 1.5994 is the R1 maybe I would have kept the position opened for a while.

But as you said....I should (and I am) happy with my +26 pips
good trade ieor4, it seems like my format of posting has rubbed off u,
this can only be good as u will have a "fixed template" in ur mind to look for this nitty gritty details that support ur trade as according to the rules

EDIT:Hi iero4 I have looked at ur charts in another window cos they dont seem to load on this page,
I have one question is that I didnt see price touch the M15 10 EMA. Were you attempting a touch trade ?

Or were your reasons for entry for a constrainment trade along the M15 10 EMA??
Cos if you were trading off M15 i would assume you would be doing touch trade.

Apologies in advance if i assume wrongly




Regarding following the rules,

I have something that will help everyone here, new or experienced traders.

Kindly allow me to share a bit more here

I apologise in advance for the lengthy post.

i found that the times that i made losing trades or really bad trades are the times when i didnt follow the Dance rules
( those times were many and on several occasions end up in emotional and financial pain)

In order to solve this problem,I have been using this tool http://dontbreakthechain.com/

it's a tool i am using to keep track of me sticking to the Dance rules in my trades on a daily basis.

If i stick to the rules today. I check today's date box.

to quote an article where i got this idea from

"He revealed a unique calendar system he uses to pressure himself to write. Here's how it works.

He told me to get a big wall calendar that has a whole year on one page and hang it on a prominent wall. The next step was to get a big red magic marker.

He said for each day that I do my task of writing, I get to put a big red X over that day. "After a few days you'll have a chain. Just keep at it and the chain will grow longer every day. You'll like seeing that chain, especially when you get a few weeks under your belt. Your only job next is to not break the chain."


"Don't break the chain," he said again for emphasis.


This is shared with me by a friend from this article link below.

Hope this helps in more ways than forex

Cos you can apply this to other areas of ur life

http://lifehacker.com/281626/jerry-s...ctivity-secret
  • #3,622
  • Jan 21, 2011 9:14am Jan 21, 2011 9:14am
Quoting natnimrey
Survivor, or any other constrainment enthusiasts out there, what do you say to this?Price reacted to the 50 very strongly...I have scalped 5-10 pips so far but is it due for a massive breakout long?

Attachment
Natnimrey, i am certainly not in right mood to do proper analysis. A killed day with -30 and a long vacation from tomorrow make it difficult for me to concentrate. Add to that some beer that i had

But It's not a constrainment to me. Its more of a ping pong between 35/50. You enver know which way it will go. Remeber contrainment have only one MA constraining the price. when you see two MAs holding the price there is trouble. This is often a reason of losses with constrainment. For example, you see 35 holding it up but you don't see 10 holding it down. In your example price is being held by both 35 and 50. You never know who will win. Maybe HTF analysis may help.

When you see such areas you may scalp it for what they are worth- Sell at top and buy back at low. and continue till it breaks out and hits your SL. But make sure its wide enough to give some room for scalp. And also you are just hoping that it wont breakout before you have scalped enough to be profitable after breakout hits your SL. Finally remeber that manual says this ping pong area business is only for experienced guys and if you havent mastered basic trades yet you should leave these trades alone as per manual.

Hope that helps.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,623
  • Jan 21, 2011 9:26am Jan 21, 2011 9:26am
Quoting Survivor
Two things worry me here. ... But my final worry is in 1D. Thats is looking like a first two bar touch to me. Now what i would guess is that this constrainment will push the price down quite far before d1 takes over from there.
Looks like that worry wasn't unfounded. D1 took over pretty fast. And some good EG selling there.

So, that's what dance tells you. see everything and trust your signal. EU bullish doesn't mean GU too certainly bullish. I have taken hits before because of that thinking. I would see good EU sell but skip it because of buy GU signal. Applicable to multi currency traders like me but That's total confusion in life.

Just watch everything in your pair and trade what it says. NEVER ever ignore HTF.

All Trade well and make me proud with some huge pips when i return back from vacation because i wont be checking internet.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,624
  • Jan 21, 2011 10:59am Jan 21, 2011 10:59am
Quoting willkohsg
good trade ieor4, it seems like my format of posting has rubbed off u,
this can only be good as u will have a "fixed template" in ur mind to look for this nitty gritty details that support ur trade as according to the rules

[b]EDIT:Hi iero4 I have looked at ur charts in another window cos they dont seem to load on this page,
I have one question is that I didnt see price touch the M15 10 EMA. Were you attempting a touch trade ?

Or were your reasons for entry for a constrainment trade along the M15 10 EMA??
Cos if you were trading off M15 i...
Thanks for sharing, I will apply that specially when it comes to a healthy lifestyle.
  • #3,625
  • Jan 21, 2011 11:48am Jan 21, 2011 11:48am
Quoting Survivor
Natnimrey, i am certainly not in right mood to do proper analysis. A killed day with -30 and a long vacation from tomorrow make it difficult for me to concentrate. Add to that some beer that i had

But It's not a constrainment to me. Its more of a ping pong between 35/50. You enver know which way it will go. Remeber contrainment have only one MA constraining the price. when you see two MAs holding the price there is trouble...
That helped a lot Survivor. PA dropped like a rock...thank god I didn't enter. I've been working on the sim and I can better picture your definition of constrainment now; the ones that really work out have PA's reacting to only one strong MA, and quite often the others are very near, but not on the opposite side, unlike the chart I just posted.

To those struggling with touch trades, give an hour or two looking at constrainment examples. The more I look at them, the more superior they seem to touch trades, although they may require more patience. It's starting to work for a slow guy like me, I'm sure it'll work for everyone

Oh, and enjoy your vacation, constrainment expert
  • #3,626
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:02pm Jan 21, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting kostas1
It seems you guys are on a roll. Here is my single trade for today:
Beautiful bounce from H1 35/50/62. Price also crossed H4 10/35 and was due to bounce. I entered exactly on the confluence of H1 50/62 and was helped by M15 and M5 to enter. Due to the news I used half my normal lot size but I was able to milk it for a cool +66p so overall target achieved with one trade!
News helped my trade (negative news which proves that Dance already knows what's coming). What was concerning was that the price gapped down with a 12p gap and market always fills...
As a bounce trade, didn't it worry you at all that this was the third touch in a few bars of the 50/62? In some ways, isn't this more like a constrainment trade than a bounce? There were two up bars that tested this area already, one down bar that had its high in the same place, and another up bar that almost made it there. Basically, I guess I'm asking is why you think the bounce happened on this bar and not one of the earlier ones?
  • #3,627
  • Jan 21, 2011 3:58pm Jan 21, 2011 3:58pm
Basically the chart shows a whole lot of nothing. I've marked six areas where there were places one might have wanted to enter. I don't think any of them would have been good trades.

1) 35/50 Bounce. BE or Winner. The EAs are too flat. So this is not a good entry. If you took the trade, and entered on the 50, you would break even. If you took the trade at the 35 Bounce, you would have a 30 pip potential gain.

2) 35/50 Bounce. 35 is dead flat, 50 is actually against the trade. But they are very close together. On the plus side, they are almost on top of each other. On the minus side, its the second bounce. It doesn't look like a trade to me. But if you took the first trade, I think chances are pretty good you would take this one as well. And it's a loser.

3) This is a very interesting area. And I don't know if it's tradable, so I would say no. First there was the first bounce retest of the 35/50. The MAs are both flat and diverging, so no trade. But if you took it, price jumped up 13 pips against the trade before moving in the trades favor. Then it moves down for a potential profit of 15-17 pips. Whether it wins depends on where you would put the stop.

Then comes the interesting part. Price starts playing ping pong between just below the Round Number, and the 50. In all, there are five bars that reach or just barely reach the 50 on the upside, and one that blows through it to come back. On the downside, there are 4 solid bars that close at just about the same point below the RN. The MAs here are actually disagreeing with each other. I think this is a no trade, but I wonder if there isn't some way you could do a kind of straddle on these two positions? It's not dance, but this kind of ping pong happens all the time, and there does not seem to be an effective way to trade the break out, because it can't qualify as a constrainment.

4) 10 EMA Touch. No trade. This would have been a perfect 10EMA touch trade. Steep MAs. All the MAs are parallel and in line. The only trouble is that the touch doesn't happen. On the down bar, it's still 5 pips off. On the open of the up bar, it also isn't quite there. I think this qualifies as one of those frustrating just misses.

5) 10 EMA Touch. Loser. This one isn't as good as the last one. It meets the two bar rule. I think this is a by the rules trade. But I also think its one that might be worthwhile passing. Price has whipsawed but gone nowhere for 5 bars. It looks like the Weekly R1 and the daily R! might be holding it back. Ultimately, I think this is a good but not a great trade, even though it is a loser.

6) 10 EMA Touch. Winner. I think this is a worse trade than the last. There's been a bit of a revival of the trend, but only because of the deep dip from the last trade. It's the second touch of the 10 (and should be the third, except for the near miss at number 4). By this point things are looking very wicky, and almost a bit prickly. The previous two bars are looking very bearish with the long top wicks. The last bar was almost a shooting star. And still, it's by now clear that the Daily and Weekly R1 are offering pretty strong resistance. I think it might be OK to take this trade for a scalp, but I can't actually see myself taking it. (And of course, I would have been wrong.) Nevertheless, I think this is a worse trade than the loser that preceded it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,628
  • Edited 11:19am Jan 22, 2011 9:16am | Edited 11:19am
I have a few questions for Survivor about milking constrainments.

On the average, how many times would you say that you get to go back to the cow? (I mean, what percentage do you get 1 trip, what percentage 2, what percentage 3, and so on...)

What would you say the typical take profit is for a successful constrainment? (This is just for the final move, not for any of the milking sessions)

What percentage of the time do you get a winner on the final move, as opposed to ultimately going for a stop?

The reason I'm asking is because I've set up a spreadsheet that allows me to compare a few different ways to approach the milking process, and those seem to be the key variables. I talked before about pyramiding your positions as opposed to simply taking your profits.

Basically the more rounds to the dairy, the more pips gained on a winner, and the higher the winning percentage, the better it is to pyramid. Conversely, fewer trips to the dairy, lower take profit, and lower winning percentage all weigh in favor of taking your pips. I'd like to have some idea of what the actual numbers are.

EDIT: Here are a couple of examples. They all use these same assumptions. Stop of 8. TP on milking rounds 16. One round of milking happens 1/2 the time. 2 rounds, 40%. 3+ rounds 10%. (These figures round up, but otherwise do not take into account trades where there were 4 or more rounds.)

With 30 Take profit on the constrainment, and a 50% winning percentage, milking and pyramiding are almost dead even.
With 30 Take profit and a 65% winning percentage, pyramiding wins by over 4 pips/trade.
With 40 TP and 50% wins, pyramiding wins by over 7 pips/trade.
With 40 TP and 65% wins, pyramiding wins by over 11 pips/trade
With 50 TP and 50% wins, pyramiding wins by over 12 pips/trade
With 50 TP and 65% wins, pyramiding wins by over 19 pips/trade

From what you've been saying, I assume your success on Constrainments is well over 50%. But even at 50%, for milking to do better than pyramiding, you would either need a TP of less than 30 pips, or you there would have to be greater than 50% of the time that you only get to go to the dairy once. The figures would change some with differences in stop loss, and in the amount of pips milked each round.

Finally, here is the upside example. Suppose you had a good constrainment that went for four full rounds before taking off for a 60 pip profit. With the milking method, you would end up with 140 pips. And you would rightfully be ecstatic: that's a weeks profit in one trade. But if you pyramided the same trade, you would end up with 436 pips -- and that's an entire month in one trade. Keep in mind, after the first round, they are both risk free trades.

This is not an instance where greed leads to losers. The more conservative (and probably more consistent) approach is to milk your pips. But pyramiding here is free, and it looks to me like it is almost guaranteed to make you more in the long run.
  • #3,629
  • Jan 22, 2011 10:19am Jan 22, 2011 10:19am
Quoting willkohsg
good trade ieor4, it seems like my format of posting has rubbed off u,
this can only be good as u will have a "fixed template" in ur mind to look for this nitty gritty details that support ur trade as according to the rules

[b]EDIT:Hi iero4 I have looked at ur charts in another window cos they dont seem to load on this page,
I have one question is that I didnt see price touch the M15 10 EMA. Were you attempting a touch trade ?

Or were your reasons for entry for a constrainment trade along the M15 10 EMA??


http://lifehacker.com/281626/jerry-s...ctivity-secret[/color]...
I thought of it as a constrainment. Do you think I was wrong???

Thank you for your information and help. I will try to follow this tool
You are allowed to fall but you are imposed to get up!
  • #3,630
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:13am Jan 24, 2011 4:13am
Quoting iero4
I thought of it as a constrainment. Do you think I was wrong???

Thank you for your information and help. I will try to follow this tool
Hey iero4, u did nothing wrong. i thought u meant touch trade so i made a mistake

hope it helps u i am adding another link to my chain for today
  • #3,631
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:25am Jan 24, 2011 4:25am
Any thoughts on this guys?Is it a valid constrainment?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec15.JPG Size: 43 KB


I have taken off 15 pips at the round number but I'd hate to miss out on a big move long...
  • #3,632
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:29am Jan 24, 2011 4:29am
I know it's a bad time to trade this pair so I made a small order at 35 and SL is <10. Up a massive 4 pips now
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  • #3,633
  • Edited 10:47am Jan 24, 2011 4:32am | Edited 10:47am
These are a couple of scripts I knocked up.

You execute them BEFORE the trade, there is a bit of dialog, so you get set up and wait, then hit the OK button when you want to enter. (You can also cancel).

I find this a bit easier than dragging and dropping, etc.

Also money management is inbuilt, and it should handle 2,3,4 and 5 digit brokers OK, as well as ECN style.

Try them on demo and see how you go, let me know if you want any changes.

The two "Open_Dance...mq4" scripts go in your scripts folder and have to be compiled (restart Metatrader will do it).


Money_mgmnt.mqh has to go into your include folder and does not require compiling.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Open_Dance_Long.mq4   2 KB | 250 downloads


Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Open_Dance_Short.mq4   2 KB | 269 downloads


Attached File(s)
File Type: mqh Money_mgmnt.mqh   3 KB | 259 downloads



UPDATED HERE
  • #3,634
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:37am Jan 24, 2011 4:37am
24 Jan Trade Report
1st Trade of the day- Long AUDUSD 0.98962 0.98909

AUDUSD was moving upwards when i saw that price retraced to near the M15 10 EMA. set a price alert if it moved down to 0.9895.

Entered long at 0.98962 when Price moved to touch M15 10 EMA.
Was wary of the last 15 min candle as it made a pinbar, there was strong price rejection preventing price from going higher.
Any exits would and might be well ahead of my target if that area of price rejection holds.

Reasons for Entry

1) H4 10 EMA as support
2) Touch of M15 10 EMA
3) Steep M15 10 EMA angle ( 43 degrees)
4) H1 10 EMA as support.
5) 200 SMA and M15 35/50 EMA as support
6) H1 35 SMA as final support ( Blue line)

Entry and Exit

Entered 1 position at 0.98962. Stop just below the H1 35 SMA at 0.9879 Target 0.9915

Price moved lower to H1 10 EMA and 200 SMA and i added one more position at 0.98909 with same stop and shift stops to 0.98755

Price continued to moved lower and bounced off M15 35 SMA and moved higher.

Exited at RN 0.9900 for average 12.9 pips for this trade.
Attached Images
  • #3,635
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:40am Jan 24, 2011 4:40am
Quoting bigtent
These are a couple of scripts I knocked up.

You execute them BEFORE the trade, there is a bit of dialog, so you get set up and wait, then hit the OK button when you want to enter. (You can also cancel).

I find this a bit easier than dragging and dropping, etc.

Also money management is inbuilt, and it should handle 2,3,4 and 5 digit brokers OK, as well as ECN style.

Try them on demo and see how you go, let me know if you want any changes.

The two "Open_Dance...mq4" scripts go in your scripts folder and have to be compiled (restart Metatrader...
Hi,

Thank you, what is the money managment doing?
  • #3,636
  • Jan 24, 2011 4:50am Jan 24, 2011 4:50am
Hi

I'm sorry to be a pain, Thats my first trade I took a touch on MA10 with exit at daily S3, +13 pip. Please confirm that was a valid etry by the rules. Also I'm not quite understand what is the "first touch".

Thank you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,637
  • Jan 24, 2011 5:02am Jan 24, 2011 5:02am
Quoting K_Minos
Hi

I'm sorry to be a pain, Thats my first trade I took a touch on MA10 with exit at daily S3, +13 pip. Please confirm that was a valid etry by the rules. Also I'm not quite understand what is the "first touch".

Thank you
It is a valid trade for your TP ( I actually scalped it too for +15p). Only problem is that the trade was against higher TF action (confluence of RN, DP, H4 10, H1 35).

So now I am long from 1.3558 with +18p and counting.....EDIT: stopped out at +13p
  • #3,638
  • Jan 24, 2011 6:14am Jan 24, 2011 6:14am
Quoting kostas1
It is a valid trade for your TP ( I actually scalped it too for +15p). Only problem is that the trade was against higher TF action (confluence of RN, DP, H4 10, H1 35).

So now I am long from 1.3558 with +18p and counting.....EDIT: stopped out at +13p
I looked at your trade and entered EUR/JPY at 35 which was very similar...exited at +8...done for the day at +30

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,639
  • Edited 6:51am Jan 24, 2011 6:18am | Edited 6:51am
Tried to enter on the touch of H4 10 EMA like Kostas1's trade.

2nd Trade of the day- Long EURUSD at - 1.35637, 1.35594 ,1.35575 ,1.35509 ,1.35438


Reason for Trade
Confluence of

1) H4 10 EMA as support
2) H1 35 SMA as support
3) RN 1.3550 as support
4) Daily Pivot as support

Set a price alert once Price tests the H4 10 EMA levels again

Entry and Exit

Entered a long at 1.35637
and when price moved lower to test the RN i added smaller lots at these prices

1.35594
1.35575
1.35509
1.35438

Price then bounced off the lows of 1.35400 and moved higher.

I managed to exit all the positions at 1.35580 for average pips of 15.1 pips
EDIT: on hindsight.. exited too early.. at 1.3564 now.. oh well, gotta take those pips..

****NOTE:

these types of trades- trading on higher timeframe MAs is not suitable for those who are new to the strategy .

For those who are new to the strategy kindly follow the manual strictly ,trading with only the setups shown in the manual,
be it constrainment and touch trades until u are confident enough to take other types of trades.
Attached Images
  • #3,640
  • Jan 24, 2011 6:25am Jan 24, 2011 6:25am
Quoting K_Minos
Hi

I'm sorry to be a pain, Thats my first trade I took a touch on MA10 with exit at daily S3, +13 pip. Please confirm that was a valid etry by the rules. Also I'm not quite understand what is the "first touch".

Thank you
Hi K_minos,
not to worry, we all face the same phase before of qns and answers session

first touch meaning the 1st touch of the M15 10 EMA and price moved down.

but i am not sure if 1) can be considered cos the M15 10 EMA have not crossed below the 35/50 MAs yet..
there could be slight differences in how we look at it..

in this case.
1) is 1st touch
2) is 2nd touch
3) is 3rd touch
of the M15 10 EMA.
Attached Image
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