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Sonic R. System

  • #16,921
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:36am Jan 21, 2011 4:36am
If it's the end of the PUMP...The DUMP could be something like this...

Just my speculative opinion.
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,922
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:40am Jan 21, 2011 4:40am
Quoting kevinchan
Excellent Basber!

Same here, no offence, but 1.10 is a bit of over statement.

A magnitude as great as Euro debt could not bring Eur down to
1.15 so what greater than this can bring Euro to 1.10? just because
some FE tool says so? If you flip it on the other side it may even show
1.80!! sorry buddy, I don't agree.

Fundamentally, US has big deficit and other problems, then shouldn't
USD technically be 1.50/1.70 against Euro or 2.00 against GBP?

Technically, I see Eur 1.24 on cards, don't ask me why, when, how, thats
my view, but I trade...
I believe price can do what even it wants. It can reach 1.1 or 1.8 in EU. It's wrong to thought "price CAN'T go there" or etc. For example, If you remember about 4 years ago that GU get close to 2.0000, many people and analysers didn't even imagine that GU will go beyond 2.0000, but not also it did go beyond that, it climbed 1160 pips more before it starts to fall. And now reaching 2.0000 is more acceptable, because price once went there and upper than that. The thing I'm saying here is, there is no point ... Yes, if we are trading daily or weekly, it matters alot, but we trade M15. It's just a noise comparing to even a weekly chart.

Yes, I have my biases to (To be true, I agree with TAH if the level of S&R holds), everybody does, but I try to think at it as fun, not technical indicator.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #16,923
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:43am Jan 21, 2011 4:43am
Quoting nando_rich
Good Oportunity in GU.
I believe you are correct!

Right now, the PPMs are hiking price for "last minute" grabs to add to their short positions. Based on H4, it looks like the EP starts below 1.5883 and TPs could be 1.5810, 1.5780 and 1.5743. The tall upper wicks on the candles tell the story....the PPMs kept driving the price up to hit stops and grab shorts. Not sure where to put SL, since US PPMs have not yet come to the table. They too could drive the price up for themselves.
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  • #16,924
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:46am Jan 21, 2011 4:46am
Quoting traderathome
Folks, please get this straight. I posted a simple Daily chart with bearish connotations as encouragement to a fellow Sonicer, that price is in a down trend. And based on an applied FE study 100% level being in the 1.1000 area, I flagged it as a possible target.

......then all hell breaks loose! Even someone foreign to our thread posts a contrary opinion! What the hell! Am I so famous that other people on Forex Factory are scanning for my posts....just waiting for an opportunity to disagree?!

.
.
.

Have a good day,
traderathome
TAH, I wasn't criticizing at all. You know my attitude, I try to bring up some of my ideas using some posts ... I'm not offending anyone, specially you. I don't even disagree with you. I just wanted to shed some light on your post so that new traders don't get involved too much in these analysis.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #16,925
  • Jan 21, 2011 4:54am Jan 21, 2011 4:54am
Im thinking about EP @ DVP ...
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Lose small, WIN BIG..
  • #16,926
  • Edited 5:22am Jan 21, 2011 4:58am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting kevinchan
I am desperately trying to understand how volumes work, and I was
thinking - when we see a high volume bar and price still goes up,
what does that mean? If PPMs are selling at high point, price should
not go up so much and it does!

Is it possible that they may be Long and exiting at that point,
a large exit would also show up a large volume bar? pls correct me if I am
wrong.

Large institutions definately have to buy to sell (exit) and vice versa,
so why don't we get to see the large volume bar when they bought?
Are we missing something?
The "Thieves of Wall Street" have a saying that describes how hedge funds and brokers, etc. with large holdings to sell, get rid of them. They drive up the price and sell off as excited traders start buying on the drive up! They call it........(drum roll, please)....

Pump And Dump!

And a nice by-product of their price manipulation is that the price becomes higher.....a nice place to start shorting! So, they naked short at the tops, selling what doesn't exist to all those excited buyers who keep buying, possibly raising the price even further! This enables the hedge funds, brokers, etc. to go on shorting at exceptional prices. Of course, soon the price will stop rising. The buyers will loose enthusiasm. The manipulators will go on naked shorting. The price will plummet! And all those shorts will become GOLD. And a lot of those excited buyers will loose their shirts later, when they give up. They'll sell, allowing the manipulators to close (cover) their shorts at good profits. The longer the buyers hold out before giving up, the more they loose in the end, and the more the manipulators profit in the end.

It is the same in the forex market. Why? Same price manipulating thieves....same Pump & Dump strategy to close longs and acquire shorts....same "Torpedo & Buy!" strategy to close shorts and acquire longs. Sometimes these strategies are fully completed short term....you can see it all, start to finish, in the same day. But sometimes the strategies are scheduled to be played out over several days, or even several weeks. When this happens, it can be easy to forget what might really be going on.

But, so what? The Sonic R System can sometimes find setups on both sides of these strategies....the up and downs involved, unless they happen very quickly back to back.
  • #16,927
  • Jan 21, 2011 5:00am Jan 21, 2011 5:00am
Quoting kevinchan
I am desperately trying to understand how volumes work, and I was
thinking - when we see a high volume bar and price still goes up,
what does that mean? If PPMs are selling at high point, price should
not go up so much and it does!

Is it possible that they may be Long and exiting at that point,
a large exit would also show up a large volume bar? pls correct me if I am
wrong.

Large institutions definately have to buy to sell (exit) and vice versa,
so why don't we get to see the large volume bar when they bought?
Are we missing something?
Till TAH answers himself, I use two point of views :
1) I usually see volume on swings, not candles individually
2) If I want to use it on individual candles, the wick of the candle is very important, High volume in a bullish candle that the upper wick is tall, indicates shorting at high for me, and vice versa.

I sometimes use both ...

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #16,928
  • Jan 21, 2011 5:15am Jan 21, 2011 5:15am
Quoting Basber
Till TAH answers himself, I use two point of views :
1) I usually see volume on swings, not candles individually
2) If I want to use it on individual candles, the wick of the candle is very important, High volume in a bullish candle that the upper wick is tall, indicates shorting at high for me, and vice versa.

I sometimes use both ...

Regards,
Basber
How do you interpret the volume swings just for your trading decisions? Like TAH? Could you give some example?

I have read many of your post and learned a lot from them. But I always see you play the volumen in Low/Hight, but i don't remember seeing as you play in the swings ..

Thanks in advance.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,929
  • Jan 21, 2011 5:47am Jan 21, 2011 5:47am
Quoting traderathome
I believe you are correct!

Right now, the PPMs are hiking price for "last minute" grabs to add to their short positions. Based on H4, it looks like the EP starts below 1.5883 and TPs could be 1.5810, 1.5780 and 1.5743. The tall upper wicks on the candles tell the story....the PPMs kept driving the price up to hit stops and grab shorts. Not sure where to put SL, since US PPMs have not yet come to the table. They too could drive the price up for themselves.
See also the h1 bearish flag.
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,930
  • Jan 21, 2011 5:58am Jan 21, 2011 5:58am
Quoting nando_rich
How do you interpret the volume swings just for your trading decisions? Like TAH? Could you give some example?

I have read many of your post and learned a lot from them. But I always see you play the volumen in Low/Hight, but i don't remember seeing as you play in the swings ..

Thanks in advance.
By swings, I meant swing high and swing low. When price make a high (By making high, I don't mean to go just up. I meant when price reaches a new high relative to certain number of candles before THEN comes back a little) with a spike in volume, It means "seek for short" for me.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #16,931
  • Jan 21, 2011 6:08am Jan 21, 2011 6:08am
Quoting kevinchan
If PPMs are selling at high point, price should
not go up so much and it does!

Is it possible that they may be Long and exiting at that point,
a large exit would also show up a large volume bar?
Many of the traders use HALH and the WHOLE numbers to place trades and exit trades, and there are many pending orders placed in these areas. Now take a look at the single candles that reach the half and whole numbers: they usually have the highest volume. After the trades are made, volume decreases. I see logic here, but dont have much experience with volume trading.
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  • #16,932
  • Edited 6:33am Jan 21, 2011 6:12am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting nando_rich
See also the h1 bearish flag.
Constructing an upper channel line, I can see the US traders spiking back up towards the 3/4 number to hit SLs to create liquidity to enable additional short orders to be filled.
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  • #16,933
  • Jan 21, 2011 6:28am Jan 21, 2011 6:28am
Since there are no remaining important releases yet to come, all catalysts for price moves are gone. PA now depends on if the PPMs have delayed any intended manipulations for some reason, and have them scheduled to happen in the remaining hours today.

The US PPMs have yet to come to the table. When they do, they might replicate recent swings, so they too can partake of better pricing.

In any case, once all the "sandbagging" is over with, will prices move? Maybe not. Things could just go stagnant. The PPMs might prefer that, so next week they can see if there are any additional opportunities to partake of "special pricing" before they engage in moving the prices.

We will just have to wait and see what the rest of today offers.
  • #16,934
  • Edited 6:55am Jan 21, 2011 6:43am | Edited 6:55am
GU:

Kevinchan, take a look at the decreasing volume as the price gets pumped higher. That move was price manipulation, with as little investment as possible, to obtain higher prices. In the process the manipulator(s) ran stops creating liquidity for their own short orders to be fillled. If they leave the price up there, for the US traders to deal with, it is because they believe not all grabbing opportunities are yet exhausted (i.e., getting more of their own short orders filled at these higher prices), and they will ride the coattails of whatever the US PPMs might further do with the price.

Just opinion.
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  • #16,935
  • Jan 21, 2011 6:45am Jan 21, 2011 6:45am
Quoting Basber
By swings, I meant swing high and swing low. When price make a high (By making high, I don't mean to go just up. I meant when price reaches a new high relative to certain number of candles before THEN comes back a little) with a spike in volume, It means "seek for short" for me.

Regards,
Basber
Can you post an example on chart please.

Thanks.
  • #16,936
  • Jan 21, 2011 6:46am Jan 21, 2011 6:46am
Quoting traderathome
Constructing an upper channel line, I can see the US traders spiking back up towards the 3/4 number to hit SLs to create liquidity to enable additional short orders to be filled.
Good Point...

Thanks.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,937
  • Jan 21, 2011 7:06am Jan 21, 2011 7:06am
Quoting kevinchan
Can you post an example on chart please.

Thanks.
Sure ..

Here's a snapshop of GU in few past days. 3 situations are drawn with vertical red dashed lines. The thing is in all three situations, you see a spike on volume (notice the curve of the yellow line on volume that I drew manually), no matter what price are doing. Now let's see what price present us ... :

Situation #1 : The spike was on the move up. no swing made. So I'll pass this as a direction to have in mind. These moves (high volume on long move) usually leads to a upward move, but there should be a volume decrease on leg down, then again volume increase on third leg of SonicR setup. But I usually don't confirm these kind of trades with volume. The main use of volume that I usually notice, are situation # 2 & 3.

Situation #2 : Volume spikes, price made a swing low. Notice the curve on yellow lines. Now I look for a long setup. The long setup appears, but it ranged through the next day without hitting the SL.

Situation #3 : two swing downs (making two lows) with spike on volume. Again I look for a long setup to add to my position or simply I hold on to my previous short (which I did the second) and just adjust the SL on the new low.

I hope it was clear enough

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #16,938
  • Edited 7:56am Jan 21, 2011 7:44am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting Basber
Sure ..

Here's a snapshop of GU in few past days. 3 situations are drawn with vertical red dashed lines. The thing is in all three situations, you see a spike on volume (notice the curve of the yellow line on volume that I drew manually), no matter what price are doing. Now let's see what price present us ... :

Situation #1 : The spike was on the move up. no swing made. So I'll pass this as a direction to have in mind. These moves (high volume on long move) usually leads to a upward move, but there should be a volume decrease on leg down, then...
You've been very clear! Looks interesting. I will observe this next week.

What data provider are you using? It's just to compare the volume study.

Thank you very much.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,939
  • Jan 21, 2011 7:51am Jan 21, 2011 7:51am
I promised to post BEFORE the dragon is released
Here is a very likely setup for a long trend in AU.

Notice dragon point up + PA taking place above trendline.
+ WAVE
+ it shoots off a Whole number.
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  • #16,940
  • Jan 21, 2011 8:32am Jan 21, 2011 8:32am
Quoting nando_rich
You've been very clear! Looks interesting. I will observe this next week.

What data provider are you using? It's just to compare the volume study.

Thank you very much.
I'm using I-Securities MetaTrader Platfrom. It's a branch of IFC-Markets Broker.

By the way, you're quite welcome

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
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