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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #701
  • Jan 18, 2011 5:40am Jan 18, 2011 5:40am
Couple of trades performed admirably last night (Euro session) I entered both manually, arriving shortly after the 5X5 cross. TP's for both were the opposite TMA band. Eur/Usd provided +65, and Eur/Cad +82. Signals (both the H1 and H4) were clear cut w/ the e/u, while not so much for the e/c. But was hoping the e/u could provide enough momentum to pull the other along with it. Onward and upwards (p/l)
  • #702
  • Jan 18, 2011 7:01am Jan 18, 2011 7:01am
Quoting MephistoII
Couple of trades performed admirably last night (Euro session) I entered both manually, arriving shortly after the 5X5 cross. TP's for both were the opposite TMA band. Eur/Usd provided +65, and Eur/Cad +82. Signals (both the H1 and H4) were clear cut w/ the e/u, while not so much for the e/c. But was hoping the e/u could provide enough momentum to pull the other along with it. Onward and upwards (p/l)
hello there mate...can you please post the screen shot of how you took the trade...im a newbie...can u please explain what exactly is the 5x5 cross
do you want me to blindly take the trade if all conditions are bet....?
  • #703
  • Jan 18, 2011 7:55am Jan 18, 2011 7:55am
Quoting orionhan
I've read through the entire manual but still have some queries.

1) there isn't any hard rule on which perioud where you can use this right? So what is the recommended time frame one should use?

2) I still am confused on what part does the 5MA plays in deciding our entry. Say for example the 240MA crosses the TMA center line. So how do we use the 5MA line?
The 5x5 is hard coded to the 1H chart and the 4H EAs are hard coded to the 4H. However using similar system on other TF may work also. I was playing with a 1M and just scalping and that looked promising also. Anyway had a nice day, I didnt post my trades like usual but can't complain. Took 10 trades 8 winners two loser and pocketed over 100 pips using the 4H charts. I will stay with it because I am comfortable and experienced at trading it.
  • #704
  • Jan 18, 2011 8:36am Jan 18, 2011 8:36am
Quoting nanningbob
The 5x5 is hard coded to the 1H chart and the 4H EAs are hard coded to the 4H. However using similar system on other TF may work also. I was playing with a 1M and just scalping and that looked promising also. Anyway had a nice day, I didnt post my trades like usual but can't complain. Took 10 trades 8 winners two loser and pocketed over 100 pips using the 4H charts. I will stay with it because I am comfortable and experienced at trading it.
nanningbob,

Are the entry rules for the 4H version the same as the rules for the 1H version? I noticed you did not include a manual in the 4H 1.2 zip folder.
  • #705
  • Jan 18, 2011 8:38am Jan 18, 2011 8:38am
No problem, George. I didn't take actual screen captures after entry, but its very easy to see how the trade was triggered, using the eur/usd as the better example. Also, Shanexx, above, has provided a summary of the entry process. I will notate the charts to hopefully aid in your understanding, If you follow the arrowheads, left to right, the text will be in better sequence for you.

I have also included the 4H chart, which should be self-explanatory, if you have also studied this later material.

HTH, if not clear, just ask. Cheers ... meph
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd H1.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd H4.png Size: 31 KB
  • #706
  • Jan 18, 2011 8:57am Jan 18, 2011 8:57am
Quoting ItsMeTyler
nanningbob,

Are the entry rules for the 4H version the same as the rules for the 1H version? I noticed you did not include a manual in the 4H 1.2 zip folder.
The simple rule set for the 4H chart is found here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
  • #707
  • Jan 18, 2011 9:10am Jan 18, 2011 9:10am
Quoting MephistoII
The simple rule set for the 4H chart is found here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670
Perfect. Thank you, my good sir.
  • #708
  • Edited 9:50am Jan 18, 2011 9:34am | Edited 9:50am
Hi, at thirst thanks a lot Bob for your great job.

And now one question guys, is it valid SELL trade (when price above MA240) or TMA and PRICE always should be below MA240 for SELL? Thanks a lot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gra.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #709
  • Jan 18, 2011 9:44am Jan 18, 2011 9:44am
Quoting Javas
Hi, thanks a lot for you Bob for your great job.

And now one question guys, is it valid SELL trade? i am little bit confused about that one, are we selling if price crossed MA240 trying to reach TMA band at that case? Thanks a lot.
Yes this is a valid sell. As long as the middle blue line of TMA is below the 240 it's a sell. Crossing down across the 5x5 is the trigger, not crossing the 240.
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #710
  • Jan 18, 2011 10:00am Jan 18, 2011 10:00am
Quoting Wally1953
Yes this is a valid sell. As long as the middle blue line of TMA is below the 240 it's a sell. Crossing down across the 5x5 is the trigger, not crossing the 240.
Thanks Wally1953 for your quick answere.
  • #711
  • Jan 18, 2011 10:19am Jan 18, 2011 10:19am
Quoting orionhan
I've read through the entire manual but still have some queries.

1) there isn't any hard rule on which perioud where you can use this right? So what is the recommended time frame one should use?

2) I still am confused on what part does the 5MA plays in deciding our entry. Say for example the 240MA crosses the TMA center line. So how do we use the 5MA line?
I would test it, or any variation of it, on any time frame you want. If it works well enough over a long enough sample, then I would consider running with it (and of course sharing the results here). I've been testing the H1 charts with different ideas of stop loss and take profit.

Entry Signal Long:

TMA middle band is greater than 240.
Price is at or near the lower TMA band.
5 is at or below the middle TMA band. (Some discretion in this)
Trigger: Price crosses the 5. (That's what the EA does if you set it.)

Opposite for shorts.
  • #712
  • Jan 18, 2011 11:09am Jan 18, 2011 11:09am
Quoting MephistoII
The simple rule set for the 4H chart is found here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=670

Just to verify that I'm not missing something..

If price is below both lines, turn on sell EA
If price is above both lines, turn on buy EA

Is that really all there is to it...?


Excuse my newbishness. Just having a problem keeping track of all the differant systems, EAs and methods in this thread..
  • #713
  • Jan 18, 2011 11:36am Jan 18, 2011 11:36am
Hey IMT, that's how I'm reading it. In the spirit of public disclosure, I have virtually nil experience using EA's, so my usage of those is still under study. I understand Bob's simple buy and sell EA's but have yet to dig into Steve Hopwood's more advanced offerings. So, from a strictly manual application, I would hit buy as price crosses the 8 threshold from below, provided it (the 8) sits above the 60, and accordingly, sell when price crosses the 8 from above w/ it positioned below the 60. I believe one would just turn on the EA's as they see these occurrences setting up. Hopefully someone will step in and correct this if I misunderstand. And I hear ya' on processing all the info here
  • #714
  • Edited 1:59pm Jan 18, 2011 1:02pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting MephistoII
Hey IMT, that's how I'm reading it. In the spirit of public disclosure, I have virtually nil experience using EA's, so my usage of those is still under study. I understand Bob's simple buy and sell EA's but have yet to dig into Steve Hopwood's more advanced offerings. So, from a strictly manual application, I would hit buy as price crosses the 8 threshold from below, provided it (the 8) sits above the 60, and accordingly, sell when price crosses the 8 from above w/ it positioned below the 60. I believe one would just turn on the EA's as they see...
That's what I get from the post you linked me to as well. I'm eager to see what nanningbob says.

EDIT:
Mephisto, You make want to take a look at the attached file in here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4316992

I'm thinking that the 2 MAs act as trend identifiers but entry is based on the MACD Stoch indicator. Again, I could be wrong about this, lets wait for nanningbob.
  • #715
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:18pm Jan 18, 2011 2:18pm
Effective system. Thanx very much Nanningbob. I have been trading the system manuelly if i see discrepancies in momentum (14). It helps to filter many bad trades. Only two trades i take today, nzdcad (around 25 pips) and eurchf (70 pips). Last friday audjpy could be nice trade but it was problematic i didnt take it.

I worked some on historical data I think discrepancy measuring can be a good filter.
  • #716
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:14pm Jan 18, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting MephistoII
No problem, George. I didn't take actual screen captures after entry, but its very easy to see how the trade was triggered, using the eur/usd as the better example. Also, Shanexx, above, has provided a summary of the entry process. I will notate the charts to hopefully aid in your understanding, If you follow the arrowheads, left to right, the text will be in better sequence for you.

I have also included the 4H chart, which should be self-explanatory, if you have also studied this later material.

HTH, if not clear, just ask. Cheers ... meph
Great explanation. Now I dont have to do it. Thank you and appreciate it very much.
  • #717
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:19pm Jan 18, 2011 3:19pm
Quoting ItsMeTyler
Just to verify that I'm not missing something..

If price is below both lines, turn on sell EA
If price is above both lines, turn on buy EA

Is that really all there is to it...?


Excuse my newbishness. Just having a problem keeping track of all the differant systems, EAs and methods in this thread..
So far what I have been doing on the 4H chart is drop an EA when price is between both lines. If I have a buy EA and it goes south no entry. But if it goes north I am in. I am treating it like a breakout system right now. Yesterday I did well on the EURO because several were in the middle. I put some on buy and some on sell so no matter which way price went I was in. So the EURO did well for me. I guess you could call it 50 50 guess.
  • #718
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:41pm Jan 18, 2011 3:41pm
Quoting nanningbob
So far what I have been doing on the 4H chart is drop an EA when price is between both lines. If I have a buy EA and it goes south no entry. But if it goes north I am in. I am treating it like a breakout system right now. Yesterday I did well on the EURO because several were in the middle. I put some on buy and some on sell so no matter which way price went I was in. So the EURO did well for me. I guess you could call it 50 50 guess.
I know that you're using EAs to avoid sitting at the computer for the entire day, just an interesting thing I've noticed based on visual back testing:

If you just simply go long when the first 4H candle closes above both MAs (below for short) and then exit when it closes on the other side of the line, it seems the win ratio is pretty good. I imagine the average pip gain is smaller with this method but it seems pretty efficient. Examples in attachments:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example1.GIF Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: example2.GIF Size: 72 KB
  • #719
  • Jan 18, 2011 4:02pm Jan 18, 2011 4:02pm
Quoting nanningbob
I am adding on another EA but this one is meant for the 4H chart. The template has the same lines as the 1.1 for the 1H chart but it also has a different set for the 4H. Basically the TMA center now becomes the 8MA. I found out that a smoothed 8MA is almost the same at the TMA line on the 4H chart so I am using it instead. The 240 line becomes the 60MA on the 4H chart. The EA is simple when price is below both lines sell, when above both lines buy. Below are pics of the 4H with my famous RWB lines. I have added the 15+3 MPTM EA. There are two kinds,...
What's the stoploss for these new trades bob?
  • #720
  • Jan 18, 2011 4:48pm Jan 18, 2011 4:48pm
Even though it looks like the thread may have moved on to the H4 variation, I will still post results from my H1 tests. This time, Stop Loss is at the full swing. There are two variations for Take Profit. First variation: take profit when price hits opposite TMA band. Second variation: on trades where entry price is between the 240 and the 48, take half off at the opposite band, move stop to BE, and take other half off when price returns to the original band. For trades where price is outside both the 240 and the 48, take profit when price hits the opposite band.

Total Trades: 244
Winners: 119
Winning Percentage: 49%

Expectancy with TP First Variation: .20
Expectancy with TP Second Variation: .28

With 2% risk/ trade, on first variation, $10,000 becomes $24,097
With 2% risk/trade, on second variation, $10,000 becomes $34,358

Largest Drawdown at 2%/trade, 21% of Equity over a 21 trade span.

I did some playing with different risks on this run.

1%/trade - Var 1: $16K, Var 2: $19K, Largest drawdown: 11%
5%/trade - Var 1: $67K, Var 2: $145K, Largest drawdown: 45%

The max return happens at 15% risk/trade. Final equity with Var 2 would then be $875K. The largest drawdown, however would be a mindblowing 87%. (Equity drops from a high of about $1.25 million, all the way down to $180K, before rebounding back to $875.)

After 15% risk/trade, total returns start to drop off. At 24%/trade, variation 1 returns a little less than it did at 2%/trade, with $23K. Variation 2 does better, giving over $130K. The drawdown reaches 97%.

I'm attaching charts of the equity curves for 2% risk/trade, and also for 15% risk/trade. These numbers show that, up to a point, the more you risk, the more you stand to win. But you also increase the risk of blowing your account. The conclusions you draw from these numbers should depend mostly on how much you are willing to lose. But, if you happen to decide that an 87% drawdown is OK with you because you really like the look of that $1.25 million peak, you might get lucky, but more likely you will simply blow up your account.
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