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  • #365,581
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:07pm Jan 16, 2011 2:07pm
dam i was away just came in that was a heck of a move wish i was here
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  • #365,582
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:10pm Jan 16, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting catnip
Anyone an idea what caused the EUR rally? I am using currency strength meter
and indeed it was not just USD weakness that let the price of EUR in USD raise
it was a sharp raise in relative strength of EUR.
But what caused it?
Ok the differentials UST 2y 10 y started looking dangerous Euribor fell sharply
and some more data from credit market in favor of EUR.
But someone, a CB must have bought Euro in large. It is strange that such happens when the Eur shorts are maximally. We had the same positioning before and EUR fell . Now we have many EUR...
I'd hazard that PIIGS bond auctions had a part to play...
  • #365,583
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:10pm Jan 16, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting Robert99
I have gone through various stages in my trading career and I find from practical experience that is much easier to trade a $100,000 US Dollars account than a $5000 US Dollars account..................
That is why I include Capital....
I know and worked with people who have made millions of dollars ("U.S.") from trading currencies. None of them started small. I felt short of trading capital until discovered a broker who allows you to trade without any upper or lower limit in terms of currency units. Never looked back.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #365,584
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:15pm Jan 16, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting catnip
Anyone an idea what caused the EUR rally? I am using currency strength meter
and indeed it was not just USD weakness that let the price of EUR in USD raise
it was a sharp raise in relative strength of EUR.
But what caused it?
Ok the differentials UST 2y 10 y started looking dangerous Euribor fell sharply
and some more data from credit market in favor of EUR.
But someone, a CB must have bought Euro in large. It is strange that such happens when the Eur shorts are maximally. We had the same positioning before and EUR fell . Now we have many EUR...
There was a strong perception that EUR/USD would go down because of Europe PIGGS problem. The market was incredibly short EUR/USD as of the last COT report on Friday. That was only counting Tuesday trades.

When first Portugal, then Spain, Then a Hawkish Trichet spoke Thursday the SHORTS started to COVER and there was a massive short squeeze on EUR/USD as market PERCEPTION changed while FUNDAMENTALLY nothing changed.

We need to see this Friday's COT report for confirmation.

This week we have EVENT RISK because of China/USA meetings on Wednesday at the Presidential Level.

China ALWAYS does things financially to make points with the USA so who knows China could announce a .50 % Rate Hike on Tuesday to cool Inflation and Increase the value of the Yuan and send US Stock markets down and US Dollar Index Up and EUR/USD down if the correlation comes back between US Equities and EUR/USD.
  • #365,585
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:18pm Jan 16, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting attila
Talking abut Gold. Somebody help me understand. Why would I own it? If everything goes to hell in a hand basket and let's say I was "smart" enough to buy physical gold overtime, what am I going to do with it in that scenario? Am I going to be able to buy necessities with it? If so, what will it's value be? Is gold going to be swapped for a failing currency? At what ratio and who will determine that? The market? maybe...

So unless you are trading it I am not sure I would buy gold or gold backed instruments as long term investment for that matter....
During bad times, when the banks have closed down and the currencies are worthless, it's a good idea to own a few silver coins.
  • #365,586
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:19pm Jan 16, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I'd hazard that PIIGS bond auctions had a part to play...
The auctioned bond prices and hence yields were not good at all.
When they had to offer high yields a nice bid to cover could be done.
Doesn't convince me. Consequently I don't find an entry to trade EURUSD.
  • #365,587
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:21pm Jan 16, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting Robert99
I have gone through various stages in my trading career and I find from practical experience that is much easier to trade a $100,000 US Dollars account than a $5000 US Dollars account.

I would NEVER again trade Forex with less than $10,000 US Dollars.

I had my best results trading a demo account above One Million.

There is a very good reason for this. Because of the nature of Forex especially if you use 100-1 leverage which I learned upon since day one of first demo trading and then real trading the drawdowns on a $500 Mini account or a $5000...

One of the best and clearest statements since a long time! Yes ... you are absolutely right ... and it is fully in line with my opinion ...

It is much much harder to be a successful trader with small accounts than with bigger ones ...

Drawdown concepts and many other parameters are much easier to be controlled with fine tuning then ... spread policy is much much better ... and many many things that I do not want to mention now ...

So hats off ... and bow to the brave ones who try with small accounts!

Das ist meine ehrliche Meinung.



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #365,588
  • Edited 2:38pm Jan 16, 2011 2:25pm | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting catnip
Anyone an idea what caused the EUR rally?
I sure don't know the answer to that, but:

this is the CRB index, which is essentially the USD denominated in a basket of "stuff" which have more or less the same productive values anywhere in the world.

EDIT" Of course, I wrote that backwards: it's a basket of stuff denominated in USD. Now off to debate the existence of Dog with some other guys with dyslexia.
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  • #365,589
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:27pm Jan 16, 2011 2:27pm
So many different variables to factor in when it comes to fundamental analysis, most of it being ambiguous anyway...

TBH the only things I trust are my price charts, but that's just me...
  • #365,590
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:31pm Jan 16, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
So many different variables to factor in when it comes to fundamental analysis, most of it being ambiguous anyway...

TBH the only things I trust are my price charts, but that's just me...
With ya there brother...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #365,591
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:34pm Jan 16, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
So many different variables to factor in when it comes to fundamental analysis, most of it being ambiguous anyway...

TBH the only things I trust are my price charts, but that's just me...
"Peace does not mean to be in a place where there is no noise, trouble or hardwork. It means to be in the midst of those things and still be calm in your heart" - Unknown


............ and that moment comes when your position size is small enough.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #365,592
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:37pm Jan 16, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting Magix
With ya there brother...

So much manipulation of perception going on, how often has an economic indi come out pointing in one direction, yet price has "head-faked" and gone the other way or whipsawed and just gone back to ranging...
  • #365,593
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:37pm Jan 16, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting Robert99
I have gone through various stages in my trading career and I find from practical experience that is much easier to trade a $100,000 US Dollars account than a $5000 US Dollars account.

I would NEVER again trade Forex with less than $10,000 US Dollars.

.....
You may not understand this today or even tomorrow, but I guarantee you that if you can't successfully trade a $100, or even $1,000 account you can't successfully trade a $100,000 account!
  • #365,594
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:39pm Jan 16, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting Chicky
"Peace does not mean to be in a place where there is no noise, trouble or hardwork. It means to be in the midst of those things and still be calm in your heart" - Unknown


............ and that moment comes when your position size is small enough.
Small enough relative to your overall account size, that is excellent advice Chicky, possibly the best advice of all in the world of trading...

Trading is a business and not an extreme sport, if done correctly re. risk exposure then it should be boring...
  • #365,595
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:40pm Jan 16, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting mercy seat
One of the best and clearest statements since a long time! Yes ... you are absolutely right ... and it is fully in line with my opinion ...

It is much much harder to be a successful trader with small accounts than with bigger ones ...
So, why not become a master of the micros?

Working backwards doesn't make sense, but that sure seems to be what a lot of traders do...start off floating their account with tens of thousands only to realize that this game ain't easy...

I have seen a lot of traders go from big accounts to trading micros, and some even back to Demos.

So, why not start small?

If you can throw a hundred bucks into an account and learn to take small consistent gains under safe measures, won't this translate to the same when you increase the size of your account either by gains or further invested dollars?

Example...I opened an account for my kid for Christmas...a MICRO account, shucking dimes. We have been working on this account for about a week now...1 loser in the mix for 18 pips, and the rest nice little gainers.

His $96 dollar account is now $146.93. On actual days traded, translates to about 10% gains per day...

Huge money, cripes no, but translate that play into 10, or 100 x the size of the play...instead of $50 gains on the day, at 10x, would mean an account of $1000 net gains of $500...

He is 15 years old, and sure there are a few trades that I have assisted him with, but learning to take calculated risk at this level for these kind of gains could conceivably put him into never having to work a day in his adult life...

Hrmmmmmmmm....
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #365,596
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:44pm Jan 16, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
That is excellent advice Chicky, possibly the best advice of all in the world of trading...
Long time ago, I managed consulting unit of the world's then biggest accounting firm (now #2). A man walked into my office and showed his intention of establishing a gold trading company. The profit margin in this business at that time was 1%. He said, he could buy gold in the morning, sell it off in the afternoon and repatriate the funds back to exporting country in the evening. He added that there were 365 days in a year, calculate my ROI. He further added that all his inventory would be in gold. This is now one of the world's biggest gold trading companies.

I do the same 1% game with currencies.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #365,597
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:47pm Jan 16, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting Chicky
Long time ago, I managed consulting unit of the world's then biggest accounting firm (now #2). A man walked into my office and showed his intention of establishing a gold trading company. The profit margin in this business at that time was 1%. He said, he could buy gold in the morning, sell it off in the afternoon and repatriate the funds back to exporting country in the evening. He added that there were 365 days in a year, calculate my ROI. He further added that all his inventory would be in gold. This is now one the world's biggest gold trading...
That's my goal, 1-2% a day. On my 10k account it's not much, but in a few years, it should be , hell even in 1 year it should be.
  • #365,598
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:50pm Jan 16, 2011 2:50pm
I trade 25£ per full power to 10£ per point depending on the stop. I only need 15-25 quick points in the morning. I then leave 4/5 running normally that can run into hundreds of points or get blown out break even which they normally do.

Trading micro must be a total waste of time as how you going to live on that?

take a long time to get a decent balance that way.
rat
  • #365,599
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:51pm Jan 16, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting Chicky
Long time ago, I managed consulting unit of the world's then biggest accounting firm (now #2). A man walked into my office and showed his intention of establishing a gold trading company. The profit margin in this business at that time was 1%. He said, he could buy gold in the morning, sell it off in the afternoon and repatriate the funds back to exporting country in the evening. He added that there were 365 days in a year, calculate my ROI. He further added that all his inventory would be in gold. This is now one of the world's biggest gold trading...
Was discussing 1% daily equity increase with compounding just last night...

The attached is borrowed from Mr Hatch, but the numbers are actually quite startling, starting with a modest $1000 account projected over 3 years...
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Forex-Balancesheet 2011.xls   109 KB | 252 downloads
  • #365,600
  • Jan 16, 2011 2:51pm Jan 16, 2011 2:51pm
Quoting forextine
That's my goal, 1-2% a day. On my 10k account it's not much, but in a few years, it should be , hell even in 1 year it should be.
Easier said, but doable. I started with a target of 0.03% daily average. 1% a day is still too too far away.
The Thief of Wall Street
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