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  • #365,441
  • Jan 16, 2011 7:53am Jan 16, 2011 7:53am
Quoting Italianguy
Hello everybody, i'm new in this kind of stuff.
I'm short on EUR/USD at 1,3387.
What do you think ?
Welcome to this thread . There is up ,there is down , what will happen Only God knows .
But why entered that short & for possible target , any chart/logic behind ?
thanks ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #365,442
  • Jan 16, 2011 7:56am Jan 16, 2011 7:56am
Quoting fontu
Welcome to this thread . There is up ,there is down , what will happen Only God knows .
But why entered that short & for possible target , any chart/logic behind ?
thanks ,
fontu
Hello, thanks the answer.
Logic can be behind that decision, but tre real economic situation behind the euro it's so critical.Macroeconomy rules, speculation maybe can effect but in a short term.
  • #365,443
  • Jan 16, 2011 7:58am Jan 16, 2011 7:58am
Quoting fontu
There is thread like this read
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=253475
my post there
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=95
wish you good luck , everything possible.
fontu

thanks mate
  • #365,444
  • Jan 16, 2011 7:58am Jan 16, 2011 7:58am
Quoting fontu
Welcome to this thread . There is up ,there is down , what will happen Only God knows .
But why entered that short & for possible target , any chart/logic behind ?
thanks ,
fontu
fontu,

with last weeks auction... does this qualify within elliott wave? or is it noise to be disregarded?? i can't get my wave counts right here with last weeks rally...
  • #365,445
  • Jan 16, 2011 7:59am Jan 16, 2011 7:59am
hi all hope u had a great weekend

still the same play no break no shake key is 13320's and 13400

no prediction , but i did not like the retracement on fridy from the top almost 100pip they did sell the heck of it , i think befor we go up we will go down lets see , i might be wrong
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  • #365,446
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:10am Jan 16, 2011 8:10am
Quoting jaylovin
fontu,

with last weeks auction... does this qualify within elliott wave? or is it noise to be disregarded?? i can't get my wave counts right here with last weeks rally...
To me it repainted , wave 3 down has not started yet , just wave a ended ,confirmed by breaking previous high 3432, next bc correction of the whole wave 1 down for wave 2& again to start 3 down very big . so upto top of wave 1 can be the range . hope not that , it should be last spike up before great fall to me at any level but failure at top, present or last one or new created .Anyway it was too abonormal repainting a big wave . lets see .chart there at some up perhaps .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #365,447
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:17am Jan 16, 2011 8:17am
Quoting Piters
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/exchange.html?e=FOREX

first time i see this site so may i ask is tihs a reliable source?
  • #365,448
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:25am Jan 16, 2011 8:25am
wow did any body see this shitt yet


9-ene-2011 21:21:57 GMT

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post4317006

This chakra is very bearish.

From 19-ene-2011 21:21:57 GMT

Sell GBPUSD
Sell GBPJPY
Stop Loss 40 pips.

The use of Stop Loss is very important.

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/162...r19ene2011.jpg
  • #365,449
  • Edited 8:41am Jan 16, 2011 8:30am | Edited 8:41am
I can't believe people on this forum still want to short. In-fact if you are looking to short, you need to have the printing press in your house. This market had been sending a strong message to us that it's not moving down anymore. Most people believe it went up because of the bond auction. I don't believe that. I believe it went up because the people who control the market had switched positions to the long-side. This is what happen when the whole world is bearish. Even the pizza guy is bearish on the EURUSD.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #365,450
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:40am Jan 16, 2011 8:40am
Both my long term charts point to 3450 so I would not call the longs dead just yet.
3550 not out of the question either

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  • #365,451
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:53am Jan 16, 2011 8:53am
Quoting letscry
first time i see this site so may i ask is tihs a reliable source?
ex. Tenfore, now Morning Star FEED.. that's current rate.. But get back to check the rates 1-2h before Wellington opens.



ps google .. tenfore
  • #365,452
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:54am Jan 16, 2011 8:54am
We have stalled out 4 times so far in about 1-2 months time ...

We are coming up on the 50% fib again from multi year Fib Setup & we are coming up on a 50% fib fan line.

There is also the possibility of a inverted H&S coming up which would bring us back down to the .3050 area if that were to play out ... with the Dollar index having a nice bounce last week, this would be a possibility.

Now Fundy speaking, the Euro still has a lot of pressure stacked up against it & a few bond sales is nothing more then a tiny chip off the block, not to mention that now that have to make HIGHER interest payments to pay off their debt upon debt.

IMO, the only players who want a higher Euro is Asia so that they can make more off of their exports to Europe ... so of course they are making behind the door deals trying to up the anti on a higher Euro.
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  • #365,453
  • Jan 16, 2011 8:59am Jan 16, 2011 8:59am
Quoting Piters
ex. Tenfore, now Morning Star FEED.. that's current rate.. But get back to check the rates 1-2h before Wellington opens.



ps google .. tenfore
thank you
  • #365,454
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:02am Jan 16, 2011 9:02am
Quoting mikej2010
We have stalled out 4 times so far in about 1-2 months time ...

We are coming up on the 50% fib again from multi year Fib Setup & we are coming up on a 50% fib fan line.

There is also the possibility of a inverted H&S coming up which would bring us back down to the .3050 area if that were to play out ... with the Dollar index having a nice bounce last week, this would be a possibility.

Now Fundy speaking, there Euro still has a lot of pressure stacked up against it & a few bond sales is nothing more then a tiny chip off the block, not to mention...
You are saying the only people who want higher euro is Asia. Well I think the US also wants higher Euro. From the Feds action it clear that, they want to see a debasement of the USD. So it's not only ASIA that want's the EURO to move up. The US is also looking for Higher Euro's. The big players in the FX (CHINA, RUSSIA, JAPAN and USA) are all in-favor of a higher Euro and so you need to be careful of playing the market against these deep pocket guys.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #365,455
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:07am Jan 16, 2011 9:07am
Quoting Pipmysterio
You are saying the only people who want higher euro is Asia. Well I think the US also wants higher Euro. From the Feds action it clear that, they want to see a debasement of the USD. So it's not only ASIA that want's the EURO to move up. The US is also looking for Higher Euro's. The big players in the FX (CHINA, RUSSIA, JAPAN and USA) are all in-favor of a higher Euro and so you need to be careful of playing the market against these deep pocket guys.
? No offense, but i think you are doing much more 'conspiracy' & 'assumption' thinking ... I don't think the U.S. is near as concerned about the Euro as you are making it seem. They want higher Chinese currency which would devalue naturally the countries who import from China.

The Euro is overvalued right now and has been since it came out 10 years ago.

edit-I didn't say 'only', But China & parts of the middle east are the biggest exporters & a stronger opposing currency would be in their best interest.
  • #365,456
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:12am Jan 16, 2011 9:12am
Quoting mikej2010
? No offense, but i think you are doing much more 'conspiracy' & 'assumption' thinking ... I don't think the U.S. is near as concerned about the Euro as you are making it seem. They want higher Chinese currency which would devalue naturally the countries who import from China.

The Euro is overvalued right now and has been since it came out 10 years ago.

edit-I didn't say 'only', But China & parts of the middle east are the biggest exporters & a stronger opposing currency would be in their best interest.
What valuation model are you using and saying the Euro is over-valued? I'm hearing a lot of folks just like you all saying the Euro is over valued but they have no valuation model to justify that claim. My friend tell me the valuation model you are using and let's see where the inputs come from. The Euro is not over-valued.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #365,457
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:17am Jan 16, 2011 9:17am
Quoting Pipmysterio
What valuation model are you using and saying the Euro is over-valued? I'm hearing a lot of folks just like you all saying the Euro is over valued but they have no valuation model to justify that claim. My friend tell me the valuation model you are using and let's see where the inputs come from. The Euro is not over-valued.
PPP - purchasing power parity - the cost of goods & services. Per any product, it will cost more if you convert to a Euro from most currencies.

Same goes for AUD.

For example. Something 'everyday' ...

A video game in the U.S. cost 59.99, in Aussie, it cost I think 79.99 AUD, which translate to about 78-80 USD. When last year it cost around 65 usd when converted. the Aussie's, for imports, are paying at least 10% more for items because their currency is overvalued right now.

Same goes for the Euro, it cost more to buy items over there when converted because the cost of different currencies.

edit-that is why some countries are considering internet tax because it is cheaper to import goods from overseas.
  • #365,458
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:18am Jan 16, 2011 9:18am
Quoting fontu
To me it repainted , wave 3 down has not started yet , just wave a ended ,confirmed by breaking previous high 3432, next bc correction of the whole wave 1 down for wave 2& again to start 3 down very big . so upto top of wave 1 can be the range . hope not that , it should be last spike up before great fall to me at any level but failure at top, present or last one or new created .Anyway it was too abonormal repainting a big wave . lets see .chart there at some up perhaps .
fontu
hi fontu... do you have a chart to support this theory? i am plotting my counts and will post a chart when i'm done... thanks...
  • #365,459
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:24am Jan 16, 2011 9:24am
Quoting mikej2010
PPP - purchasing power parity - the cost of goods & services....
What business school did you go to?lol. Law of one price does not work in the world. What you just post is not a valuation model. Dude go back and do some research and learn how to value currencies. Let me help you with a model. Try using this model and you will know that the Euro is not over-valued.

The model values currencies relative to each other in direct proportion to the foreign holdings of each, that is, XAB= FA/FB, where FA= Quantity of A’s money owned without en-cumbrance by foreigners and FB= Quantity of B’s money owned without en-cumbrance by foreigners.XAB= Currency value of Nation A’s currency with respect to Nation B’s. I hope you are able to input the figures.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #365,460
  • Jan 16, 2011 9:27am Jan 16, 2011 9:27am
maybe another 100 pips up. but fundies and technicals tells short trend coming.

see charts posted 5-6 pages before


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