EURUSD

True.... True...
let's have a BUD and honour this Fibonacci guy

and also the onez that thaught of applying it to trading.

Review remain intact , after huge unjusttied ? crazy retracement above the previous high , pave the way to more retracements for sure anyway but as every action has its equal & opposite reaction here also some reaction can be expected if not equal as the seems the crazy not any weak & overal becomes the matter of prestige issue doing it from the last minute movements but to daily ,weekly TL pullback ok with spikes up at times while down .

anyway the days past now & new days & week coming , lots many things to change .

Fitch downgrades Greece rating to junk status
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=276456
Europe Faces `Balancing Act' in Fixing Debt Woes, El-Erian Says: Tom Keene
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=276436

China voices different :
China has little choice but to buy US dollar: CIC exec

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/7292170.cms
speculators cut usd short nett 12.4 to7.38 billions from last week
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=276471

& more , swiss , japan to save their own home .

so more & more retracement down before further try by more retracement up again if able , but failure at top again do or not able next time .

TD sequencial count analysis of the present market technically:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=144
fontu

Hi,

I dont know why do someone want to short here long term??

Looking at the weekly we are in a range and at resistance...

If we make a range here (well we are in one) there could be a break to the up side and with the momentum from the rise, gives some thinking...

If this small range breaks fontus charts are more preferable to me- a pullback with a move for the break of resistance...

Just be careful...

By




P.S. Take a look at the monthly in making...

A

PA is still bullish. Didn't manage to break 1.3320, and it respected a trendline.



On a weekly chart there is a bullish engulfing which is a reversal pattern. So i believe this time PA could break through that heavy resistance, but we'll see.

Correct me if Im wrong but it looks to me the bounces from the S/R zone are bigger and bigger. I would expect move down. Only strong ultramegagigahigh volume piercing action could change it.
Im not a position trader so I will wait for a move anyway.

Yea, and that is one of the reasons i believe it will break it now (eventually could retrace a little bit). Similar scenario happens on lower timeframes all the time. When price comes to a resistance it bounces from it but not much, resistance is first tested couple of times and then bounces from it hard, and that hard bounce (retracement) on lower price collects enough bulls to break it when next time visit. With every test resistance is weaker, but it's gonna be strong support once when broken.
This time PA has real strong momentum.

Looking at the GBPUSD on the weekly chart,I have come to the conclusion that the EURUSD is once again up for a huge rally to the previous highs. GBPUSD and EURUSD are positively correlated and this correlation is over +0.90. Normally it's the GBPUSD which leads the way either up or down. Going forward, I'm happy to buy dips in the EURUSD. A lot of people believe the EURUSD is going to move down and probably disappear soon.My view is the EURUSD is going to strengthern and still remain as a currency for the EUROPEAN ZONE.

anyone shorting this beast make sure u will have enough margin to last 38xx ,looking at weekly it seems it might visit that price if it goes up in cooming weeks.

I posted this prognosis over a week ago now on January 7th. So far its has come true.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=361173

I'm a position trader with weekly and monthly trades supplemented with occasional scalps. Long term I'm bearish in EURUSD despite last weeks gains. The intra-week moves had given me plenty of green PIPs however, I will be reloading my monthly short positions following Monday NY session.

Does the MLK bank holiday in the US matter or affect your view by a day or not?

It may trend with not much PA on Monday, however position trading as a strategy requires several things;

1)Patience - I sometimes have to wait several weeks to even guesstimate my entry, not to mention fighting the urge to "trade" without a reason.

2) Start small- My trade may start with .2 lot and scale in as I'm riding the trend every week on dips or spikes.

3) Use SL of trades from the past to lock in the profits. When you catch a good 4 to 5 month trade, the retracements trigger SL in profit from previous positions and trigger pending orders to reload. Depending on PA action over long term, I can end-up with 1100+ pips on 5 or 6 lots in several month with minimal risk due to SL placements staggered behind the PA.

I think that the 15m chart is the most relevant for support ranges as of current. I have a negative crossing on this chart and we currently sit just above 5m support. Negative crossing is an early indicator of a retrace. As we have already see the M5 chart challenged, and currently sit at M15 Hulls resistance, I would speculate that if we lose S1 <-5m support, that the next target with be S2...

Though I have an early indicator of counters on the longer time frames as well, the first and immediate target range is the S2. M30 and H1 support are listed as S3, S4 respectively.

As this is a weekend forecast, a gap north-side could invalidate the chart and continue the Bullish Frenzy...

Support ranges are moving target based on EMAs for respective time frames and are thus subject to change.

Chart1, M15,
Chart2, same look through a 30m window
Chart3, same look through hourly window.

Hi Fontu,

I just went through the article of Economic Times, and it is a bit frightening to me concerning Chinese conception and price development.
If the Chinese actively and massively invest in both, isn't EU as well as other pairs forced to be moving in a sideways action until China decides for themselves, which might be the necessary bit more promising for their needs?

On EUR:USD, of you alternated long one week, short the next etc every week since 1st November 2010 from the Monday 12am open you would have had just one losing week of -33 points and a total profit of 2631 points.

This Mondays open is a short.

[IMG]file:///C:/Users/KAJSAM%7E1/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot.png[/IMG]

Whats the source of that image? I would love to read the context of the article it was posted with.

Cacophony of voices. I will simply wait, watch and see what happens on M15 before taking any action.

From fundamental side of things USD is the king. Everyone knows about the debt issues, however as long as the oil and other commodities are tied to dollar it's position will be stronger relative to other currencies in the long term. If you are a foreign nation and need to buy oil, first you need to buy USD! That is why Chinese and other nations will have bulk if their reserves in dollars regardless. Thats why USD will not be allowed to fail or fall below certain mark, even at expense of other nations.

Bottom line US can print money infinitum and get out of any crisis. While sovereign EU nations must tighten the belt, raise taxes, and accept high interest IMF bailouts. What you seen last week was a classic pump-n-dump in action. The "successful" debt auction news jacked up EUR price a bit, next few weeks we will see new low in 1.26 as the result. This year will have series of bad news coming out of EU zone that will drive EURUSD to set new record lows. I want you guys to bookmark my post and kick me in the ass year from now if I'm wrong.

I have been following your posts and your approach to trading forex.

You have some good parts however I see some weak points.

STRONG POINTS:

(1) Your Technical Skills
(2) Your Trading Experience
(3) Your Results (Unverified in real trading)

Have I left some out.

WEAK POINTS:

(1) Attitude to othes
(2) Lack of civility
(3) Overblown Ego
(4) Refusal to have an open mind.

Have I left some out.

I Have No Ill Intent with this post. I am entitled to my opinion.

Now let me share my credentials which will NOT include any charts or calls.

My knowledge of what happened during the 15 days of January 2011.

This knowledge gives me an edge in knowing what might happen in the future. I use the word might since things can change daily in forex.

EXAMPLE: China and USA meet this week on Presidential Level.

Just before the holidays in late December there was very little liqudity and EUR/USD had a nice run going into the end of 2010.

Then the FOCUS was almost solely on Portugal and Spain while things seemed much better in the USA. Before the next shoe dropped in Europe the worst was assumed by the market and EUR/USD reversed by over 500 PIPS and as the last COT report on Friday proved there was an incredible increase in EUR/USD shorts.

Please keep in mind this report is only until Tuesday of each week. So starting on Wednesday and into Thursday as the fear of Portugal was removed. (China One Billion Private Placement) Spain Bond Sale was OK.
Trichet was HAWKISH on Thursday and then on Friday with BAD retail sales and Dow down the correlation between equity markets and EUR/USD was not there.

What was happening as next Friday's COT report will surely show was a MASSIVE SHORT COVERING in EUR/USD.

To ASSUME next week that EUR/USD will go up or down is to make a BIG mistake. The markets will tell you NOT THE CHARTS until after the facts such as the China meeting. The direction of the Dow. All of these NEW fundamentals will affect supply and demand and the readjustment of asset prices such as Gold which had a sell off will have an impact in the market.

The US Dollar is going down as is the Euro and it is just a question whose turn is it to go down that week.

This is meant to be a positive helpful post and encourage honest and helpful discussion.

Hda is my role model.