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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #641
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:40pm Jan 13, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting duffypratt
Two points on this:...
So, it is not the DD of open trades, it is the actual drop of balance?
  • #642
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:53pm Jan 13, 2011 9:53pm
Quoting krunofx
So, it is not the DD of open trades, it is the actual drop of balance?
Correct, not the DD of open trades. It is the drawdown on the balance curve, which is the curve showing closed positions only. When testing one pair, there will only be one trade open at any time. So the idea of floating drawdown of open trades does not serve any purpose in the testing. If I could figure out a way to test a bunch of pairs at once, then both ideas would have to come into play. (And it would be really nice to be able to test that way, because one thing that is very uncertain is the effect of trading related or unrelated pairs at the same time.)
  • #643
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:38pm Jan 13, 2011 10:38pm
Quoting duffypratt
Correct, not the DD of open trades....
Thanks for explaining this Duffy. An interesting test would be to try to keep opening new trades (when new conditions are met again), while some are still opened. In this scenario you would need to apply the 2% (or less in this case) risk rule on the actual equity. I have a feeling that the full stop strategy might work out better in this case. I appreciate your contribution a lot, and of course Bob's and everyone else's.

thanks
  • #644
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:00am Jan 14, 2011 12:00am
Quoting Viv108
Are you sure its safe to use a technical analysis based system on instruments which are so sensitive to fundamentals? Would this system work on stocks? Indicies?
It's a great question. On a product like WTI, I use a confluence of this technical setup with fundamentals. Thus when you add the surprise drawdown in EIA inventories this week, weakness of the dollar and the shutting down of the Trans Alaskan Pipeline into the mix, these all support the technical uptrend view.
  • #645
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:23am Jan 14, 2011 12:23am
Quoting Zuke
Setup looming on Feb WTI...now waiting on 5x5 Cross to occur and then we are in!
OK, now entered LONG 91.20; SL 90.97 (1/2 distance from latest swing low...if I am stopped out, I will look for a new re-entry point). TP1 = 92.27 (Upper Band Line)...I will take off 1/3 of size at that level and let the remaining 2/3 run to next major Res or Mid TMA line (where I will take off another 1/3 and let the rest run until either upper band line or lower band line)

Lets see how this goes....
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  • #646
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:25am Jan 14, 2011 12:25am
Quoting TheDirtySerb
After taking a hit on AU last night because I chose to enter a short trade while the TMA was rising, I am deciding to skip the inital entry for the same reason in the upcoming long opportunity setting up on UsdChf. From the rules standpoint it would be a correct entry but I dont like the angle of the TMA. So what I'm looking for is an initial test of the 9660 area and back down to test the current lows. If the low holds and we get a higher low and price then breaks the 5 MA, I will then enter long and look for price to go up to the 9712-24 area...
The problem in trading is when you get to these muddy ares is: Is this a correction of DT and is going back to DT or a rest before contiuing back up. Hard to say and dont know. This where knowing some fundamentals helps, however, knowing them for every currency would be tough. SOooooooooooo............ some will take it and some wont. Be neat if someone ivented an indicator that told us which direction price was really going to go. LOL
  • #647
  • Jan 14, 2011 3:37am Jan 14, 2011 3:37am
Sir,

In order to reduce DD, would it not be an idea to open a position "no earlier than X minutes into the subsequent candle" when or if price crosses or comes close to the red or green line as the case may be.

Price will of course have previously touched etc the red or green line before the above condition is met.

All other rules would remain the same. The above is a further refinement.

Any thoughts?
  • #648
  • Edited 4:33am Jan 14, 2011 4:19am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting nanningbob
The problem in trading is when you get to these muddy ares is: Is this a correction of DT and is going back to DT or a rest before contiuing back up. Hard to say and dont know. This where knowing some fundamentals helps, however, knowing them for every currency would be tough. SOooooooooooo............ some will take it and some wont. Be neat if someone ivented an indicator that told us which direction price was really going to go. LOL

I've got one... it's called i-ball... It also detects trending and ranging markets as they really occur.
  • #649
  • Jan 14, 2011 4:30am Jan 14, 2011 4:30am
Quoting prof8t
I've got one... it's called i-ball... It also detects trending and ranging markets as they really occur.
Can you please share the indicator with the whole house
  • #650
  • Jan 14, 2011 4:40am Jan 14, 2011 4:40am
LOL, takes some believing doesn't it.
  • #651
  • Jan 14, 2011 4:59am Jan 14, 2011 4:59am
Try a MT4 MACD default and a CCI @31. Saves me every time.

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  • #652
  • Jan 14, 2011 5:34am Jan 14, 2011 5:34am
Quoting prof8t
I've got one... it's called i-ball... It also detects trending and ranging markets as they really occur.
LOL I actually go that one. Good Show.
  • #653
  • Jan 14, 2011 9:08am Jan 14, 2011 9:08am
Well crazy day. If I had not done the +60 TP -30 SL I could have had over +150 on the gbp/nzd and that would have made my day. I closed down having taken all the trades. +96 TP -115 in the hole for -19 day. The funny thing is if I would have done the MPTM break even 15+3 I would not have taken any losing trades except for Eur/gbp and I would have been sitting on over 100 pips in profit depending on where I had closed out the gbp/nzd. Be nice to say I would have taken all 160 but that is guess work. It is so hard to decide but I still like never letting a winner turn into a loser strategy. 5 trades were closed out as losers but 4 would have been winners and were up anywheres from 20-40 pips at one time. The problem I am personally having on the 1H chart is I am not around to monitor my trades during the day and this is causing me some trading problems. So I am going back to the 15+3 MPTM strategy to protect myself from entrances that backfire and hope there are one or two runners. My final tally for the week then is +61 pip profit but sure made a lot of mistakes. I am sure there are people here who did much better than me.
  • #654
  • Jan 14, 2011 9:44am Jan 14, 2011 9:44am
Quoting nanningbob
Be neat if someone ivented an indicator that told us which direction price was really going to go. LOL
Here's one that arrived in my trash. It's free but can't open it up to see what it's measuring.

Don't know if it's got any value.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TrendLord.ex4   3 KB | 425 downloads
  • #655
  • Jan 14, 2011 10:46am Jan 14, 2011 10:46am
Quoting nanningbob
Well crazy day. If I had not done the +60 TP -30 SL I could have had over +150 on the gbp/nzd and that would have made my day. I closed down having taken all the trades. +96 TP -115 in the hole for -19 day. The funny thing is if I would have done the MPTM break even 15+3 I would not have taken any losing trades except for Eur/gbp and I would have been sitting on over 100 pips in profit depending on where I had closed out the gbp/nzd. Be nice to say I would have taken all 160 but that is guess work. It is so hard to decide but I still like never...

What is the 15+3 MPTM strategy?
rat
  • #656
  • Jan 14, 2011 11:03am Jan 14, 2011 11:03am
Bob,

I keep reverting back to adding the RWB (at extremes) for trade alignment / confirmation.

I don't think I'll ever be able to trade without it any more, its a comfort blanket to me :-)

Cheers,
  • #657
  • Jan 14, 2011 11:19am Jan 14, 2011 11:19am
Quoting rattyo
What is the 15+3 MPTM strategy?
I'm not positive about this, but my guess is that when the trade gets to plus 15, the EA sets the stop loss to break even +3, locking in 3 pips of profit on the trade.
  • #658
  • Jan 14, 2011 11:47am Jan 14, 2011 11:47am
Quoting nanningbob
Well crazy day. If I had not done the +60 TP -30 SL I could have had over +150 on the gbp/nzd and that would have made my day. I closed down having taken all the trades. +96 TP -115 in the hole for -19 day. The funny thing is if I would have done the MPTM break even 15+3 I would not have taken any losing trades except for Eur/gbp and I would have been sitting on over 100 pips in profit depending on where I had closed out the gbp/nzd. Be nice to say I would have taken all 160 but that is guess work. It is so hard to decide but I still like never...
For TP, it's pretty easy to have a decent idea where the opposite TMA band will be if price takes off in your favor. Of course, if it isn't taking off, then you will likely get a chance to adjust the TP manually. So I wouldn't think that is that big a problem.

SL is much harder. There's no way to know how much price will swing against the trade before it comes back to meet the 5. (For me, this problem gets compounded because I want to be able to set the lot size based on the size of the stop loss.) For me, I suppose a good compromise would be to set up some sort of alert system to warn me when price is within x pips of entering. But I doubt that would work for you while you are fulfilling school duties.

I don't know about moving to break even. Most of the time, when the price starts to run, it gets to TP very quickly. My guess is that moving to TP would probably reduce drawdowns on your equity, by reducing risk somewhat, but would also reduce overall profits. But that's just a guess.
  • #659
  • Jan 14, 2011 12:30pm Jan 14, 2011 12:30pm
Made a couple changes to the way I'm forward testing. As of Monday I'll be running all default settings except only on the majors and only between 1am-11am EST.
  • #660
  • Jan 14, 2011 1:09pm Jan 14, 2011 1:09pm
I've got a question about how you are planning on using the 48 as a filter. Let's take a long trade as an example. Price dives down to the bottom TMA line. That is almost always below the 48. This means that when the EA gets put on, price will be between the 48 and the 240, and thus in the danger zone. However, at the same time, the 5 is often still above the 240, so maybe its not in the danger zone? And then, by the time the entry occurs, price will often be above the 48, and thus in the safe zone.

For testing, I've been using where the price is at the time of the entry. If its between the 48 and 240 at that time, then its in the "danger" category. The trouble with this approach is that it will be harder to apply if you are putting on the EA and not at the computer when the entry occurs. Thus, I think it might be better to use where the 5 is (or is likely to be in a few bars) as a guide.
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