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  • #364,521
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:27pm Jan 13, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting mikej2010
okay, just curious more then anything ... try to see what the collective opinion is past 'it's a bull-run' ...

The run yesterday was done off of words & it was done to satisfy the investors, Just wondering if & when the profit taking will commence and since some bulls had some good runs ... just wondering of course where the stops are places below .3300
i would say a retest to 1.3380-1.3410
if it broke (h1/h4 closed above that) yes it is a bull run... else im chasing 1.3185
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #364,522
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:31pm Jan 13, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting Magix
It is an adjustable hulls...check out the nolag ema's...works and shows exactly the same by comparison...

TCCI here...

Nolag here.

Links from my thread here.
Thanks for the links! Took a look at the Nolag code, and was ready to conclude it was a species of iterated average, but then saw the cosine weighting sequence in the initialization constructor. I'll have to put the specification into Maple to see what is going on there, since there doesn't seem to be any discussions of algorithm on the web that I could find.

There's always something new, huh?

Also, had a big double-take moment there. I had known about the Hull ma, but tonight I first discovered that Hull's first name is Alan. I thought, what's the co-author of the Hull-White options model (one of the numerical models used to price exotic options when volatility is variable) doing horsing around with moving averages? Then it hit me: It's John Hull and Alan White, not the other way around.
  • #364,523
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:31pm Jan 13, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting primzvicious
i would say a retest to 1.3380-1.3410
if it broke (h1/h4 closed above that) yes it is a bull run... else im chasing 1.3185
I am in a short but we have some crap coming up so I won't beable to watch it. Just trying to figure out what I should do in case this runs on for a few days.

See another thing about this whole 'bond' market ...

The only buyers really are the Asian buyers ... why, drive up Euro to have cheaper exports to euro ...

I am not reading anything about any private buyers or anything significant ... just seems real sugar-coated to me.
  • #364,524
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:33pm Jan 13, 2011 8:33pm
Entered long here at 3327 looking at the hourly chart I think we are going to retest the 3422 area and after that I have no idea.

entry 3327
SL 3294
TP 3412
  • #364,525
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:34pm Jan 13, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting mikej2010
I am in a short but we have some crap coming up so I won't beable to watch it. Just trying to figure out what I should do in case this runs on for a few days.

See another thing about this whole 'bond' market ...

The only buyers really are the Asian buyers ... why, drive up Euro to have cheaper exports to euro ...

I am not reading anything about any private buyers or anything significant ... just seems real sugar-coated to me.
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #364,526
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:34pm Jan 13, 2011 8:34pm
Lurked here a VERY long time.

If nothing else, this thread is entertaining, and it reminds me of walking down the sidewalk in Venice Beach.

Quite a cast of characters.

Won't post much, just a comment here and there.

But mostly kill time while trading
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #364,527
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:38pm Jan 13, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting mikej2010
okay, just curious more then anything ... try to see what the collective opinion is past 'it's a bull-run' ...

The run yesterday was done off of words & it was done to satisfy the investors, Just wondering if & when the profit taking will commence and since some bulls had some good runs ... just wondering of course where the stops are places below .3300
Also look at it from the viewpoint of shorts that may be holding on still. With a move like we've had, and a possibility it may continue, If squeezed to the point of closing/covering this could add another upside round of buying.

..On the weekly chart, the last 7 weeks have topped at around 1.3450 so I am inclined to think 1.35 would represent some resistance.
  • #364,528
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:42pm Jan 13, 2011 8:42pm
Quoting autopips
I can't make any sense of your formula. If we want to know the level at b=5, for example, we'd expect it to be 103 (11 down from 114, given the gradient is -1). According to your formula:

p = [(120-114)(5) - (120)(-6) + (114)(-12)] / (-6)
= 30 - (-720 - 1368) / (-6)
= 30 - (-2088) / (-6)
= 2118 / 6
= 353
Sign error in your parentheses. Terms are:
(120-114)(5) = 30
-(120)(-6) = 720
(114)(-12) = -1368
Sum of numerator = -618
Result = 103

Note that the last two terms are constant for a given reference pair, and the multiplier on the argument bar (with the denominator) is the slope. Your formulation is functionally equivalent.
  • #364,529
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:43pm Jan 13, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
exit short @3325, waiting.
might get a chance id 3337/39 pushes it lower.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #364,530
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:47pm Jan 13, 2011 8:47pm
Quoting Trendstar
Also look at it from the viewpoint of shorts that may be holding on still. With a move like we've had, and a possibility it may continue, If squeezed to the point of closing/covering this could add another upside round of buying.

..On the weekly chart, the last 7 weeks have topped at around 1.3450 so I am inclined to think 1.35 would represent some resistance.
This is an updated chart I had from earlier, I also mentioned the same thing .. we have test this area and this same 'talk' was going on every time ...

We are stuck under a fib line & trend line and it seems to be holding up, also notice that the average test topped out at 8-12 hours for the most part and then settled back down, we are already at about 12 hours and the 4hour candle is growing longer {as far as the body} or is at least staying put.

I literally just can't comprehend how so many could be so bull biased right now, not by any means saying it can't happen ... but the 'words' that spike the market some times often settle back down.

This was driven by PURE speculation that interest rates might go up ...
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  • #364,531
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:50pm Jan 13, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting mikej2010
This is an updated chart I had from earlier, I also mentioned the same thing .. we have test this area and this same 'talk' was going on every time ...

We are stuck under a fib line & trend line and it seems to be holding up, also notice that the average test topped out at 8-12 hours for the most part and then settled back down, we are already at about 12 hours and the 4hour candle is growing longer {as far as the body} or is at least staying put.

I literally just can't comprehend how so many could be so bull biased right now, not by any means...

Mike here is an updated chart I got in at 3350 short once I confirmed asia traded under it I waited for pullback I know they will be selling off all night there is no buying going on. So here is a chart on tick volume alligns up perfectly to the piv for my first target pullback.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #364,532
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:50pm Jan 13, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting OldQuant
Sign error in your parentheses. Terms are:
(120-114)(5) = 30
-(120)(-6) = 720
(114)(-12) = -1368
Sum of numerator = -618
Result = 103

Note that the last two terms are constant for a given reference pair, and the multiplier on the argument bar (with the denominator) is the slope. Your formulation is functionally equivalent.
Oh indeed, so there is. I shouldn't do these things after getting back from the pub.
"Sell? Sell? No! I can't Sell! I'll Sell When I'm Dead"
  • #364,533
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:53pm Jan 13, 2011 8:53pm
Quoting goods
Mike here is an updated chart I got in at 3350 short once I confirmed asia traded under it I waited for pullback I know they will be selling off all night there is no buying going on. So here is a chart on tick volume alligns up perfectly to the piv for my first target pullback.
Now I am short biased to, but I don't think it is wise to say "I know they will be selling off all night there is no buying going on" ... only because you don't know ... look at last night, no one would have guessed those moves based off of the ECB talking around the rate announcements.

Asia doesn't mind a higher Euro as they make more off of their exports & they are using play money to buy up the euro's. Not to mention all of the 'behind-the-scenes' business deals that are going on.

I want to think ti was short and all the signs for me are pointing that way {with a topside of 1.34xx} I just won't beable to watch it in a little bit so I am going to let my trades float and trying to figure the best strategy for doing so.
  • #364,534
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:54pm Jan 13, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting mikej2010
Now I am short biased to, but I don't think it is wise to say "I know they will be selling off all night there is no buying going on" ... only because you don't know ... look at last night, no one would have guessed those moves based off of the ECB talking around the rate announcements.

Asia doesn't mind a higher Euro as they make more off of their exports & they are using play money to buy up the euro's....
point taken but so far i don't see anyone buying however, that pullback is respective Once I see that I would start looking for bull continuation to the upside,...

besides its a counter trend trade so... i only used a fraction of what I normally trade in lot size... and have a b/e sl
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #364,535
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:59pm Jan 13, 2011 8:59pm
atm it looks like i will not get a buy signal at 3320 unless something changes. st ill next look for one at 3304/3307.9 area.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #364,536
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:00pm Jan 13, 2011 9:00pm
Quoting mikej2010
This is an updated chart I had from earlier, I also mentioned the same thing .. we have test this area and this same 'talk' was going on every time ...

We are stuck under a fib line & trend line and it seems to be holding up, also notice that the average test topped out at 8-12 hours for the most part and then settled back down, we are already at about 12 hours and the 4hour candle is growing longer {as far as the body} or is at least staying put.

I literally just can't comprehend how so many could be so bull biased right now,...
True, but this thing is on a roll. A mad bull roll. After a run up like this and w/the weekend coming I'm thinking the shorts may not want to hold esp if we get another push up overnight etc. I have to admit I'm looking long and hard at any possibility this may run up again so I'm "biased" I guess.
  • #364,537
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:01pm Jan 13, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
atm it looks like i will not get a buy signal at 3320 unless something changes. st ill next look for one at 3304/3307.9 area.

how you been gator i got away from these forums for a while
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #364,538
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:02pm Jan 13, 2011 9:02pm
I somehow have this feeling that yesterday's move is the last move up within 1.3's levels. after this we may have a heavy fall towards 1.2's just like what happen in 2008. currently building short now. Long term is still short bias.
  • #364,539
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:02pm Jan 13, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting autopips
I shouldn't do these things after getting back from the pub.
Envious; I could use a pint myself.

That probably wasn't the best algebraic form to post; I grabbed it from code that uses it in calculating "lift rates" (aka curvature) of a curved line, using two points on that curve as reference, and measuring the distance to the curve from the point that formula gives. That's why it was factored the way it was.
  • #364,540
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:02pm Jan 13, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting Trendstar
True, but this thing is on a roll. A mad bull roll. After a run up like this and w/the weekend coming I'm thinking the shorts may not want to hold esp if we get another push up overnight etc. I have to admit I'm looking long and hard at any possibility this may run up again so I'm "biased" I guess.
Yes, I was just saying it is all driven by words, not tech or fundy's but words ... I would imagine it will drift off ...
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