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  • #364,321
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:02pm Jan 13, 2011 2:02pm
we are still in a channel on the 4h ... & not able to close above the Fib of 38.2

This has happened at mid Nov - Mid Dec - End Dec - Now ... same thing,

Today was a pony show, talking up Euro so investors get what they are promised ... let it ride for 8-16 hours and see what next London sessions bring ... will history repeat itself for a 4th time? I personally think so..

Still bearish with SL at 1.3500 {highs from Dec.}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #364,322
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:04pm Jan 13, 2011 2:04pm
guys you can think what you want, but a 250 pip move without a retracement of at least 40-50 pips seems to be very unreal to me...im short for 30 pip tg.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #364,323
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:05pm Jan 13, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
guys you can think what you want, but a 250 pip move without a retracement of at least 40-50 pips seems to be very unreal to me...im short for 30 pip tg.
That's my feeling too. If it can only clear this summbiatch 3350 level i'd be more comfortable.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #364,324
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:07pm Jan 13, 2011 2:07pm
Quoting mercy seat
I took 75% partial profits now ... from my last higher short entries 3374 and 3381 ... etcetera ...

And I always close the rest as well prior to rollover ...

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2011-01-13_21h02_ EURUSD _ min005 _ 1100 x 800 (BarChart).PNG (22.4 KB)

So if not expect too much ... then you might be more coolly and easygoing with all this ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-01-13_21h02_ EURUSD _ min005 _ 1100 x 800 (BarChart).PNG Size: 22 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #364,325
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:08pm Jan 13, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
when you yourself see what you preceive as a good move. Take It. Get in get out. grab-n-Go. It all adds up in the end. Don't look to textologists here that have to ramble constantly. Those that say the least tend to be better at what they do. I have bee a member longer than 95% of these talk-alot's here and watched them come and go. I hope you eagerly took that 20 pip short that was unfolding as I type this message. I did !

I agree with you. Tops/bottoms.... on what time frame.... who's to say what that means? A small bounce off a higher TFs can easily turn into a bankable full reverse on a lower one. So it's all BS thrown around by the "experts". If people like to be somebody's bitch, that's fine with me, but it really makes me cringe.
  • #364,326
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:09pm Jan 13, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting vlady1974
That's my feeling too. If it can only clear this summbiatch 3350 level i'd be more comfortable.
volume is missing
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #364,327
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:09pm Jan 13, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
southwards now
?????

daily candle tells me we're going up.... similar scenario on the last bull run from 26xx to 42xx...

bulls were approaching the 1.3500 zone and people mentioned this would be strong resistence - even though there was strong bull candles were appearing on the chart...

what happened??? - bulls gatecrashed straight through it.. be careful.... may be another scenario like this...
  • #364,328
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:10pm Jan 13, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
when i look at the daily with mm, we are right below the 3/8-level, which is kind of hard to break usually. the dominant trend-channel is still pointing down... a slide? but where to? disappointment? enthusiasm?
Hello Mr. Hatch,

first it is important to notice, that the last sharp move down (on daily) had only produced 4 candles down (7 waves), which is corrective.

This fact speaks for the case, that this down-move was part of the larger correction since end of November. So we can assume, that we are now in a C-Wave up. This C-Wave will/should at least take all of the previous B wave back (3498). That would be the case with the highest probability.

Wave B is 117% of wave A. Since this is not more than 123%, chances are high, that wave C will at least retrace all of wave B. Would wave B have been more than 123% of wave A chances were very low, that wave C would exceed wave B.

So we have to deal with the situation, that we literally have no upside limit for wave C (except, case sensitive, former wave 1 ending or starting point).

And for your last question, the EW voodoo answer:

Social mood, to change, it needs no exogenous factors.
  • #364,329
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:11pm Jan 13, 2011 2:11pm
Not to mention, to add to my 'bearish' outlook ... tomorrow there is A LOT of u.s. data coming out that can be a big market mover ... to include ...

- USD advance retail sales
- USD CPI
- USD industrial production
- USD u of Michigan Confidence

and about 10 other items

Dec. was a good month for the U.S. economy and it might be a game changer to continue the bearish overall trend ... just my thoughts .. do some research.
  • #364,330
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:11pm Jan 13, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting PhAnTi'
guys you can think what you want, but a 250 pip move without a retracement of at least 40-50 pips seems to be very unreal to me...im short for 30 pip tg.

didn't read the post above.... still... be careful
  • #364,331
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:12pm Jan 13, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting mercy seat
Wäre verschenktes Geld ... cuts lower now ... at least prior to week-end there could be seen some profit taking ... but depends on so many parameters ...

First up then down ...
I counting tomorrow for profit taking to put this down a bit..

How the price behave yesterday could easily happen also now- a tiny range...

I wont trade after i missed this.. Will wait for London..
  • #364,332
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:12pm Jan 13, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2011-01-13_21h02_ EURUSD _ min005 _ 1100 x 800 (BarChart).PNG (22.4 KB)

So if not expect too much ... then you might be more coolly and easygoing with all this ...
Moreover ... I feel free and not want to marry my positions ...

After unwinding bigger parts ... it is much more easy either to re-load ... or even go into other direction with small parts ... in order to adjust my BE ... etcetera ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #364,333
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:15pm Jan 13, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting mikej2010
we are still in a channel on the 4h ... & not able to close above the Fib of 38.2

This has happened at mid Nov - Mid Dec - End Dec - Now ... same thing,

Today was a pony show, talking up Euro so investors get what they are promised ... let it ride for 8-16 hours and see what next London sessions bring ... will history repeat itself for a 4th time? I personally think so..

Still bearish with SL at 1.3500 {highs from Dec.}
tolerate sl to only 3435 & if hit then things may change a lot , go long side for more fibs retracements to cover , unlikely but everthing possible in forex even overnight in my absence, otherwise may see next morning it positive & set at be.Round top hypothesis working perfectly so far , price below 3348 may do more action down .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #364,334
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:15pm Jan 13, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting Prosac_100Mg
As a Muppeter :- i have got to say i really feel like shorting this ::::

But i keep thinking about Cloggies ridicule of people picking tops and bottoms. Therefore i am going to wait, to be honest this is something i have not done since i went live , yep i am waiting untill the London open for some clear direction.
Hi Prosac,

nearly 55% of all Liquidity Consumer (you and me) are short now. Usually they are wrong. I too think this will go further up, but a short rebound is in the making.
  • #364,335
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:17pm Jan 13, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting jaylovin
?????

daily candle tells me we're going up.... similar scenario on the last bull run from 26xx to 42xx...

bulls were approaching the 1.3500 zone and people mentioned this would be strong resistence - even though there was strong bull candles were appearing on the chart...

what happened??? - bulls gatecrashed straight through it.. be careful.... may be another scenario like this...
im talking about a 20-30 pip drop...
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #364,336
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:17pm Jan 13, 2011 2:17pm
Quoting mercy seat
I took 75% partial profits now ... from my last higher short entries 3374 and 3381 ... etcetera ...

And I always close the rest as well prior to rollover ...
Nice entry.. Was that the first short of the day??

I wasnt thinking of shorting this the whole time after i saw this move up for 100 pips and it still kept klimbing..

Then i felt uncomfortable of buying, the ATR was established... So rather watched..
  • #364,337
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:18pm Jan 13, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting mercy seat
Moreover ... I feel free and not want to marry my positions ...

After unwinding bigger parts ... it is much more easy either to re-load ... or even go into other direction with small parts ... in order to adjust my BE ... etcetera ...

I other words ... I do not think down ... but there is a daily candle interception rule ...

So even if go higher again tomorrow ... there should be seen a certain pullback and shadow overlap to be seen in daily candles ...

That is the daily candle interception rule ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #364,338
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:19pm Jan 13, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi Prosac,

nearly 55% of all Liquidity Consumer (you and me) are short now. Usually they are wrong. I too think this will go further up, but a short rebound is in the making.
Maybe, maybe not, but all the intraday time frames hit all the right places for now.
  • #364,339
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:23pm Jan 13, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting attila
Maybe, maybe not, but all the intraday time frames hit all the right places for now.
I'll go on a limb....

If 3332 gives in, then expect 3270. If 3270 gives in, then we go below 3201.

So 3330ish to be watch first.
  • #364,340
  • Jan 13, 2011 2:23pm Jan 13, 2011 2:23pm
ok so i just picked the very top with low risk.. h1 has a reversal hammer-ish candle..which imo very significant, happened at the very close of london session at a major resistance....i believe 3300 should be support..watching it closely

short 3365 tight sl 3370 tp 3300 will monitor price action to exit

just my opinion

green pips
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