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  • #364,201
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:55am Jan 13, 2011 10:55am
i see the end of cycle is near...
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Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #364,202
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:57am Jan 13, 2011 10:57am
Hello Traders,

here a short analysis out of my vacation (more to follow later):

The recent very powerful up-move opens the door for several options:

a) see my last count. This count is onlý invalidated with a movement beyond the start of wave red 1. A wave two can retrace all of wave 1, but with every single pip above the 61.8% retracement one should consider other options as well

b) see one of my last counts: I have labeled the long sideway movement as wxy-move. Maybe this move was not ready. Maybe the last impulsive move down was the C-Wave of a flat (B -wave) and we are now in an impulsive C wave. So targets are between 3486 and 3550. I consider this now as highly likely. Especially when you draw a base channel connecting the high at 4257 with the supposed end of wave 2 of option a) at 3433, you will notice, that price has broken this trendline to the upper side, therefore weakening the case of option a)


c) with time passing and the corrective wave since end of November getting bigger and bigger, one should take into consideration, that the move up from 1.1875 was not finished and we might see a rally well beyond 1.4281

Trade well and safe,


Markus
  • #364,203
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:57am Jan 13, 2011 10:57am
I'd say 1.342 is the target.
  • #364,204
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:58am Jan 13, 2011 10:58am
Quoting Venice
Looks like the 1h is getting invalidated too. hah. I havn't had a trade on the E/U because I havn't been comfortable with the long positions, and it just keeps going going going. Bloody energizer bunny we have here...! hehe
Venice: The joys of being Patient - now keep in mind today is thursday, go back and look at the options Expiry I posted for next week, tell me what price levels you see.

i await your response
  • #364,205
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:58am Jan 13, 2011 10:58am
I understand perfectly where you are coming from.
I guess, we should know that by noon tomorrow as London will decide..
Not expecting much of a retrace during asian session, so will just have to wait


Quoting Hda
BrunargarFx: We are looking at two AB downtrend swings on the daily. The most recent AB swing has us at a 86 retrace and the larger AB swing is at a .50 retrace.

But we must first focus on the most current AB swing. The joys of position trading is the patience you have to exercise while you are waiting on the perfect setup.

Scenario 1: if the most recent AB swing gets taken out then we will be seeing a move to 1.3474 which is the .618 on the larger AB swing.

Scenario 2: if the most recent AB swing is not taken out at 1.3433 - then we can...
  • #364,206
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:59am Jan 13, 2011 10:59am
Quoting qwertymyfx
is that a bat or butterfly?
see for u self

its nice to learn about it, one more tool in the box
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  • #364,207
  • Jan 13, 2011 10:59am Jan 13, 2011 10:59am
Quoting mikej2010
the Euro is over-valued and needs to go back to PPP ... just my thoughts .
I don't think the Euro is over-valued. Just see what COT says about last week: large traders are 57% short. Moreover, large traders have just started shorting the USD. So, I don't think it's over-valued, Europe wants everyone to think it is over-valued to make it under-valued. Just my thoughts
  • #364,208
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:01am Jan 13, 2011 11:01am
We cannot short
  • #364,209
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:03am Jan 13, 2011 11:03am
Quoting harigp
weekly candle thoughts

fully engulfed
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  • #364,210
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:03am Jan 13, 2011 11:03am
EU has been playing yoyo between 3350 and 3360 for the past 30mn.
  • #364,211
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:06am Jan 13, 2011 11:06am
Quoting Hda
We cannot short

why chart plz
  • #364,212
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:06am Jan 13, 2011 11:06am
Quoting Hda
Venice: The joys of being Patient - now keep in mind today is thursday, go back and look at the options Expiry I posted for next week, tell me what price levels you see.

i await your response
I am currently unaware of how options expiry affect the market. I see you posted
------
1.3200
1.3125
1.3100
1.2975
1.2600
-------

On expiry, does this imply supply at these levels?
  • #364,213
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:07am Jan 13, 2011 11:07am
Quoting kill56
see for u self

its nice to learn about it, one more tool in the box
hmmm, but isn't a butterfly a failed gartley?
  • #364,214
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:08am Jan 13, 2011 11:08am
Quoting okh
I don't think the Euro is over-valued. Just see what COT says about last week: large traders are 57% short. Moreover, large traders have just started shorting the USD. So, I don't think it's over-valued, Europe wants everyone to think it is over-valued to make it under-valued. Just my thoughts
Not over-valued in trading ... over valued in 'real world' ...
  • #364,215
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:08am Jan 13, 2011 11:08am
It's been jumping up 40pips at a time...

Quoting Heliosdz
EU has been playing yoyo between 3350 and 3360 for the past 30mn.
  • #364,216
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:10am Jan 13, 2011 11:10am
Quoting BrunargarFx
It's been jumping up 40pips at a time...
Yes indeed! 2 x 20pip (standard EU wave)
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #364,217
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:10am Jan 13, 2011 11:10am
The weekly trend is still down as far as I'm concerned and that down red arrow in the panel is telling me the higher trend is starting to turn down. But hey, it's weekly, so plan accordingly.


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  • #364,218
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:11am Jan 13, 2011 11:11am
Another potential 1h entry. Will see you all at 1:00.
  • #364,219
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:11am Jan 13, 2011 11:11am
sell limit 1.3399 , SL 1.3420 , tp 1.3300
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #364,220
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:12am Jan 13, 2011 11:12am
  •  Rgkc
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Never stop learning about forex! | 419 Posts
I see 1.35 before going back down..
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Studing..............
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