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How to use the 123 strategy effectively

  • #941
  • Jan 12, 2011 12:49pm Jan 12, 2011 12:49pm
yes

triggered at 1.2991 for 115 pips

Cheers P
  • #942
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:00pm Jan 12, 2011 1:00pm
Quoting Paulus
yes

triggered at 1.2991 for 115 pips

Cheers P
Did you go for pips on this one since it was higher TF?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #943
  • Jan 12, 2011 1:17pm Jan 12, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting pres78
Didn't take this trade but I hope someone caught it (Didn't even see it until now) Ah the pains associated with trying to trade from work...
Yeah... work sucks, it gets in the way of everything.......
  • #944
  • Jan 12, 2011 10:23pm Jan 12, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting tdeu
Have a look at the EU chart. There you see, that some 123s (the ones at S/R) are more often runners than the rest. The green ones are winners the red ones losers.
Often if there is a loser and after that a higher or lower setup - this is the runner - especially if this happens in the morning (GMT) or at US open.
The S/R zones on the chart are daily and weekly.

I caught the GU 123 at the daily low. This has potential (from the daily chart) - if we break the high - to move to 1.573x / 1.577x or maybe 1.59xx.
BTW. we bounced off the H4 200MA almost...
nice result on the cable!

I think the S/R is very critical for the entry on whether to make it a 1:1 RR or to aim for a higher R:R, and as a potential trade filter. The trades at S/R, and the false break 2B's, seem to allow a greater expectation for a better R:R. Which is obvious I guess as it's implicit in why it is the S/R.

I have been looking at VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) to see if it can add some value into the entries, whether as a confirmation, or a filter, but after nearly a week reviewing it, it seems to complicate, or have a worse entry level, with no improvement in R:R.

Suri Duddella talks about volume on the 2B, and if it's less than that of point '1' then it is a confirmation on divergance. However the VSA literature says that also a large volume can also be a confirmation if it closes back inside the '1'point. Go figure...

maybe KISS is the best with S:R...

Pres, I notice you have the volume indicators on your charts, is there something I've missed with VSA, or do you use them much?
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #945
  • Jan 13, 2011 3:35am Jan 13, 2011 3:35am
Here is a trade I am in. Going short. Let's see what happens. Any one else in?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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PIP'N
  • #946
  • Jan 13, 2011 4:06am Jan 13, 2011 4:06am
Quoting golferguy99
Here is a trade I am in. Going short. Let's see what happens. Any one else in?
i'm with you, but on a harmonic basis....good luck
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #947
  • Jan 13, 2011 5:12am Jan 13, 2011 5:12am
Quoting ChinaWombat
nice result on the cable!

I think the S/R is very critical for the entry on whether to make it a 1:1 RR or to aim for a higher R:R, and as a potential trade filter. The trades at S/R, and the false break 2B's, seem to allow a greater expectation for a better R:R. Which is obvious I guess as it's implicit in why it is the S/R.

I have been looking at VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) to see if it can add some value into the entries, whether as a confirmation, or a filter, but after nearly a week reviewing it, it seems to complicate, or have a worse...
I used volume only when looking at a retrace when I am considering a trend continuation trade to see if volume is increasing or dropping off as price goes against the trend... also I watch volume to see what kind of interest there is when approaching major support and resistance.

But yes VSA is very complicated but those at Malcomb's thread seem to love it. You need to read and understand the MTM book they all refer to. I just use volume as a sort of aid... that's all.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #948
  • Jan 13, 2011 5:55am Jan 13, 2011 5:55am
this could be a 2B as well as a 123 trade. targeted preceeding lows, +3.7%...i'm also in a eur/gbp h1 long, let's see how that unfolds
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #949
  • Edited 6:38am Jan 13, 2011 6:12am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting bubola
this could be a 2B as well as a 123 trade. targeted preceeding lows, +3.7%...i'm also in a eur/gbp h1 long, let's see how that unfolds
H&S developing too by the look of it. Took a long EU (15min) earlier but apart from that not many prime setups to get in on (15min TF)....EJ long looks about to trigger as i type.
  • #950
  • Jan 13, 2011 7:13am Jan 13, 2011 7:13am
4 trades today... 3 have hit TP. My 2B USDCHF short trade is still ongoing with SL now at BE.
Attached Images
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #951
  • Jan 13, 2011 7:18am Jan 13, 2011 7:18am
Quoting pres78
4 trades today... 3 have hit TP. My 2B USDCHF short trade is still ongoing with SL now at BE.
2B trade closed at BE. 3 wins and 1 even today. Now flat as there is a slew of USD high impact news on the docket to be released shortly.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #952
  • Jan 13, 2011 7:42am Jan 13, 2011 7:42am
+4.5%
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  • #953
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:17am Jan 13, 2011 8:17am
After my USDCHF 2B got stopped at BE I switched to 5min and looked for either a long reversal and a short continutation. Very pretty 5 min short set-up was forming so I set a pending sell at point 2, my TP at -100 and SL at point 1 (was old point 3)... High Impact news was coming soon so I hoped I didn't get spiked out. News ended up being mixed for the USD but it appears the jobs figured played the most important role as the USD took some hits after.

Close to TP, SL at BE once -50 was hit.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #954
  • Jan 13, 2011 8:19am Jan 13, 2011 8:19am
Quoting pres78
After my USDCHF 2B got stopped at BE I switched to 5min and looked for either a long reversal and a short continutation. Very pretty 5 min short set-up was forming so I set a pending sell at point 2, my TP at -100 and SL at point 1 (was old point 3)... High Impact news was coming soon so I hoped I didn't get spiked out. News ended up being mixed for the USD but it appears the jobs figured played the most important role as the USD took some hits after.

Close to TP, SL at BE once -50 was hit.
TP hit in the time it took me to put out this post...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #955
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:10am Jan 13, 2011 9:10am
Watching this one ATM...
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #956
  • Jan 13, 2011 9:12am Jan 13, 2011 9:12am
And I'm in this one... TP and SL at full fib levels. SL will be moved to BE one -50 fib is hit.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #957
  • Edited 12:17pm Jan 13, 2011 10:54am | Edited 12:17pm
In addition to S/R I look for these time intervals to give a point 1 (extreme). I added 13/14 GMT (around US open) to the ones mentioned in the 1st chart.

Apart from that I look for yesterdays D1 fib levels and breakout tests from yesterdays PA. Like the BO test on GU today (2nd chart).

Forgot to mention - look for round numbers of moves - like from the low of yesterday to todays high (at the moment) 300 pips.
Yesterdays move from low to high was 197 pips! before the 123 short formed.

Cheers

Thomas

BTW. I looked into VSA a couple of months ago and found it very confusing too.

Quoting ChinaWombat
nice result on the cable!

I think the S/R is very critical for the entry on whether to make it a 1:1 RR or to aim for a higher R:R, and as a potential trade filter. The trades at S/R, and the false break 2B's, seem to allow a greater expectation for a better R:R. Which is obvious I guess as it's implicit in why it is the S/R.

I have been looking at VSA (Volume Spread Analysis) to see if it can add some value into the entries, whether as a confirmation, or a filter, but after nearly a week reviewing it, it seems to complicate, or have a worse entry...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: bo test.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #958
  • Jan 13, 2011 11:06am Jan 13, 2011 11:06am
Quoting pres78
And I'm in this one... TP and SL at full fib levels. SL will be moved to BE one -50 fib is hit.
Out at BE on this one... Price retraced to entry then back to -50 triggering by BE and has since retraced back past entry again closing out the trade.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #959
  • Jan 13, 2011 12:26pm Jan 13, 2011 12:26pm
another good day for u guys

EU - W and looking for shorts
GU - W and looking for shorts

BTW if you can get 100% per month thats every 20 trading days thats 5% per day

You can go from 5k to 2m in 12months ..at that level you will be trading around 250 contracts for a 20pip stop loss on 5% RR

dont even look at 12 months to 24months

P
  • #960
  • Jan 13, 2011 1:02pm Jan 13, 2011 1:02pm
Hi Paulus,

Nice trades.

Do you have an idea how one could have avoided the red count in favor of the green one this morning on GU?
The candle marked 1red broke above yesterdays high and ran the stops. The short would have been a loser.

Luckily I was only looking for longs as a continuation from the overall trend.
I bought the rejection from the three pushes down straight away at 1.5737.

Thanks

Thomas

Quoting Paulus
another good day for u guys

EU - W and looking for shorts
GU - W and looking for shorts

BTW if you can get 100% per month thats every 20 trading days thats 5% per day

You can go from 5k to 2m in 12months ..at that level you will be trading around 250 contracts for a 20pip stop loss on 5% RR

dont even look at 12 months to 24months

P
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 21 KB
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