Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#22,041
Jan 11, 2011 2:30am Jan 11, 2011 2:30am

realjumper
Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts

Quoting vapors

Disliked

morning fellas. thanks for your answer realjumber. i agree with most of the things you mentioned. seems during the night (since i live in greece and just waked up) it heard my pleas and went up again even though it came close to my stop levels 82,60. To be honest the main reason for entering this trade was that i would love to take the s/l that are gathered around the 85 area so i could feel like i am a one of the big boyshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif. so i did my ta and tried to find some good entry points...

Ignored

You're welcome, I hope it helped. The bottom line of what I was saying is be careful to not get married to an idea.....plenty of people get into trouble when they marry their idea. Also, be aware that the pa will go wherever it wants. I wonder how many people got burnt when USD/CHF went to 93 to set an new all time low? Betcha there was plenty who went long at 95 with large lots, thinking 'it can't go lower than this, and it's a double bottom as well'.

I would like to get into a long on this pair too, but I just can't see a reason for longs at the moment. I was long at 82.40 back in November, but that plan didn't fly.....I was expecting to see 85 tested then, but it didn't happen.

Patience, patience, patience.......if there is a holy grail for fx, patience must be in there too!!

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.

#22,042
Jan 11, 2011 2:36am Jan 11, 2011 2:36am

realjumper
Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts

Quoting fosking

Disliked

Completely. I will continue day trading EUR/USD and GBP/USD but for other pairs I'm looking to hold. Trading doesn't have to be stressful, it's just as stressful as you make it I guess.

Ignored

Absolutely! For me, the stress comes from making micky mouse analysis and consequently making a bad entry. Then I find myself wondering why the hell I entered at all. Much better to be sure that any trade entered is a high probability trade, and that comes from good analysis and patience!

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.

#22,043
Jan 11, 2011 2:51am Jan 11, 2011 2:51am

vaporas
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 38 Posts

I know exactly what you mean about marrying a position. i had a similar experience last year with usd/jpy(what else!) went long around march at 87,5 went close to 95 and i was looking it proudly and waiting to hit 100. then went down and had to close it at breakeven! that was a big lesson for me

#22,044
Jan 11, 2011 3:15am Jan 11, 2011 3:15am

fosking
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ | 1,339 Posts

Quoting realjumper

Disliked

Absolutely! For me, the stress comes from making micky mouse analysis and consequently making a bad entry. Then I find myself wondering why the hell I entered at all. Much better to be sure that any trade entered is a high probability trade, and that comes from good analysis and patience!

Ignored

It's why I prefer higher time frames. Ok it's more boring, but the hit rate seems to be a lot higher. The majority of the Big Boys aren't trading for 20/30 pips. take FX Concepts for example, they are the worlds largest currency hedge fund. One of their main strategies I remember John Taylor saying was to just trade the macro extreme moves. As you say it's all about R:R. Also a pretty good understanding of macro economics is key which these guys have also.
I found once you start trading in the right direction of the trend, its then a lot easier to keep adding positions on each pullback. The overall position is large and you are trading the right direction. The one negative thing about this kind of strategy is it highers if your buying, or lowers if your selling your net position. I had a problem with that in the middle of last year, where I simply added too much and it started to turn against me back to break even with a large position and had to bail at break even.
This year I will be concentrating more on one good entry and not adding any more positions. But to help build more positions, I will spread them across a range of different pairs instead of 2/3 positions in 1 pair.

#22,045
Jan 11, 2011 3:28am Jan 11, 2011 3:28am

realjumper
Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts

Quoting fosking

Disliked

It's why I prefer higher time frames. Ok it's more boring, but the hit rate seems to be a lot higher. The majority of the Big Boys aren't trading for 20/30 pips. take FX Concepts for example, they are the worlds largest currency hedge fund. One of their main strategies I remember John Taylor saying was to just trade the macro extreme moves. As you say it's all about R:R. Also a pretty good understanding of macro economics is key which these guys have also.
I found once you start trading in the right direction of the trend, its then a lot easier...

Ignored

Thanks for the insight. It's going to be an interesting year I think. Best of luck to you.

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.

#22,046
Jan 11, 2011 3:30am Jan 11, 2011 3:30am

fosking
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ | 1,339 Posts

Quoting realjumper

Disliked

Thanks for the insight. It's going to be an interesting year I think. Best of luck to you.

Ignored

Certainly will be! Catch ya soon mate!

#22,047
Jan 11, 2011 4:08am Jan 11, 2011 4:08am

vaporas
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 38 Posts

niceone fosking!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

#22,048
Jan 12, 2011 3:08am Jan 12, 2011 3:08am

fxstarter
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 16 Posts

Quoting vapors

Disliked

I know exactly what you mean about marrying a position. i had a similar experience last year with usd/jpy(what else!) went long around march at 87,5 went close to 95 and i was looking it proudly and waiting to hit 100. then went down and had to close it at breakeven! that was a big lesson for me

Ignored

yeah yeah... fixing losses without fixing profits ))))

#22,049
Jan 12, 2011 6:42am Jan 12, 2011 6:42am

vaporas
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 38 Posts

another attempt of usdjpy to break the 83,50 area. hope it will ...lets see

#22,050
Jan 12, 2011 7:25am Jan 12, 2011 7:25am

vaporas
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 38 Posts

treasuries prices are falling apart so thats encouraging

#22,051
Jan 13, 2011 4:05am Jan 13, 2011 4:05am

IdentifyTren
| Joined Aug 2008 | Status: great minds discuss ideas | 118 Posts

Bullish Flag

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_8texnURUcC...600/bforex.jpg

#22,052
Jan 13, 2011 4:40am Jan 13, 2011 4:40am

Ma Baker
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 180 Posts

Still Downward

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: USD.JPY , H4.gif
Size: 21 KB

Put your hands in the air , Give me all your money !

#22,053
Jan 13, 2011 5:58am Jan 13, 2011 5:58am

vaporas
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 38 Posts

true, thought it would break the 83,65 level yeasterday but it didnt.consolidation is still on. May after trichet speach will get some fuel again

#22,054
Jan 13, 2011 6:47am Jan 13, 2011 6:47am

georgem
| Joined Oct 2010 | Status: x39 | 541 Posts

the longer we stay in this tight consolidation range, the bigger the outbreak will be.

Typical for USD/JPY.

Will be fun to watch and hedge!

this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?

#22,055
Jan 13, 2011 8:00am Jan 13, 2011 8:00am

fosking
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ | 1,339 Posts

Quoting Ma Baker

Disliked

Still Downward

Ignored

Hey Ma Baker! Hope you are having a profitable week.

For the H4 chart above, I would question your trend line regarding a breakout.
For the same chart this is what I have below.

Our breakout happened back at 82.30 on the 10th November and since then we have been in a rising channel with a higher major low (lower green ascending trend line).
Eyes will ultimately be back on the 81.20 area (blue spot) for either a continuation of the prevailing reversal of another attempt or reaching the 2010 low.

H4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)