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  • #361,661
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:55am Jan 10, 2011 3:55am
Quoting buonvangvn
short again 1.2910
out 6 pips
  • #361,662
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:58am Jan 10, 2011 3:58am
we have some nice candles on M30 and H1.

since the fall from 1.34 seeing some nice stabilization in the price, euro is wild when goes up, confidence not pretty bad from euro zone,

Portugal, but USA is also applying bailouts(easing) in its economy.
surprises are just keeping euro down, not usa fundamentals,
a nice price to buy for at least 100pips up...

im in
  • #361,663
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:03am Jan 10, 2011 4:03am
Quoting acidguy
we have some nice candles on M30 and H1.

since the fall from 1.34 seeing some nice stabilization in the price, euro is wild when goes up, confidence not pretty bad from euro zone,

Portugal, but USA is also applying bailouts(easing) in its economy.
surprises are just keeping euro down, not usa fundamentals,
a nice price to buy for at least 100pips up...

im in
100 pips from recent low or 2920?
the problem i see arises from usdx-chart. as long as it holds 81.40... no real rise.
  • #361,664
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:05am Jan 10, 2011 4:05am
i'm long 1.2914
  • #361,665
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:05am Jan 10, 2011 4:05am
Swissy's cardio looks stable:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #361,666
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:06am Jan 10, 2011 4:06am
Portugal just confirmed no PP took place this weekend and Wednedsday is going ahead as scheduled.

Other rumours still going that the ECB were notable buyers last Friday.

Yields hovering just below 8 now.
  • #361,667
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:07am Jan 10, 2011 4:07am
Quoting buonvangvn
i'm long 1.2914
add long 1.2906
  • #361,668
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:08am Jan 10, 2011 4:08am
My usdx chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.jpg Size: 52 KB
  • #361,669
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:09am Jan 10, 2011 4:09am
Quoting cloggie
Portugal is hovering right below the 7% mark, at which point refinancing becomes an issue as the rollover cannot pay for the outstanding debt, let alone for the budget shortfall this year.

We will be talking about Portugal within the next 2 weeks or so. The bondmarket may delay this and wait for results out of Ireland and a done deal, in that case we can expect Portugal about 4 weeks from today.

The 3rd alternative is that the market will just soldier on till after the new year break. If I knew exactly I would make a killing, these are just estimated...

Here is a posts from last November, we are now at decision time. Portuguese yields will have to come down (artificially most probably) to make this sustainable.
  • #361,670
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:09am Jan 10, 2011 4:09am
Average price of credit-default swaps (CDS) on Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain breaking all time highs. Individually, Greece, Belgium and France spreads breaking 6 months high. Ireland, Spain and Portugal very close of breaking all time highs.

We may need to wait for Trichet to have something tradable today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #361,671
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:10am Jan 10, 2011 4:10am
Quoting Mr Hatch
100 pips from recent low or 2920?
the problem i see arises from usdx-chart. as long as it holds 81.40... no real rise.
big component in usdx is the euro, eur/gpb is recovering, eur/usd just broke the Moving Average down Momentum which was being kept in line since the 1.34,

maybe its not real euro strength, a price correction we can profit, long since 1.2905 tp 1.3050, sl can be kept pretty close like 1.2865.

gonna be a bumpy ride.
  • #361,672
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:13am Jan 10, 2011 4:13am
Quoting cloggie
Did you catch the Chinese central banker's comments last night regarding diversifying into currencies other then the dollar?

The Chinese are turning out to be the key in this EU mess right now. Merkel is again talking about raising the bailout fund to 1trn+, they will need to if they can't stop Portugal from defaulting.

Once again we are driven by the FI boys.

Technically we could do with a retrace, fundamentally the Chinese may well give us that if the yields hold.

Portuguese spreads have steadily risen today, now at 530bps vs the Bund, up...
they can buy all they want.. liquidity kills the cat. (lack of)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #361,673
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:13am Jan 10, 2011 4:13am
Quoting sisse
Average price of credit-default swaps (CDS) on Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain breaking all time highs. Individually, Greece, Belgium and France spreads breaking 6 months high. Ireland, Spain and Portugal very close of breaking all time highs.

We may need to wait for Trichet to have something tradable today.

sisse

Portugal will have to be bailed out within the next few weeks, I reckon 80-100Bn. The next issue will be Spain, that is the biggie (500Bn+). The market is just not interested in holding peripheral debt without a premium, and that is not going to change, we haven't had any good news from Portugal in a year.
  • #361,674
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:14am Jan 10, 2011 4:14am
Quoting Mr Hatch
100 pips from recent low or 2920?
the problem i see arises from usdx-chart. as long as it holds 81.40... no real rise.
yes, bull sitting there to try breaks up , H1 candle close over 81.31 may do, lets see , back again to set at be if possible.
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #361,675
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:15am Jan 10, 2011 4:15am
usdx levels to watch maybe 81.35, 81.44
sh!itty chart hope it helps..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #361,676
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:15am Jan 10, 2011 4:15am
Quoting sisse
Average price of credit-default swaps (CDS) on Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain breaking all time highs. Individually, Greece, Belgium and France spreads breaking 6 months high. Ireland, Spain and Portugal very close of breaking all time highs.

We may need to wait for Trichet to have something tradable today.

sisse
i know you prefer much higher timeframes, but the m5 gave me 3 sells already, banking close to 50 pips with a tight sl.

i don't know for sure, how hard the support right below us is (2843ish), but this would be the right place for a temp. buy, if any at all.

i just have in the back of my mind that just any short term sell could become a mid term runner.
  • #361,677
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:16am Jan 10, 2011 4:16am
Morning all,

Hope everyone's recovered from post-menstrual NFP trades.

I'm short @ 1.2916 TP 1.2887 although have to get past 1.2892 first
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #361,678
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:16am Jan 10, 2011 4:16am
Quoting gatorinla
they can buy all they want.. liquidity kills the cat. (lack of)

I reckon it is not the actual buying that is going to make a difference either, it is the perception of the stamina/patience that is going to be the key.

Nobody can bail out the EU right now, not even China, but it is all about perception.
  • #361,679
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:19am Jan 10, 2011 4:19am
Quoting buonvangvn
i'm long 1.2914
personally buddy if your scalping the range monitor price and go long below "00" and go short above "00" until ecb has spoken puts stops above highs and below lows.
hope you dont mind my comment but you seem to be going long high short low is there a reason that i miss buddy.?
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #361,680
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:19am Jan 10, 2011 4:19am
2008 "lack if liquidity crises". part duex.. print or fail..

they are talking about another stress test since Ireland has shown it was bs. so they will pull more liquidity to prop up the banks and governments. no/less money for banks to loan.. and currency so high, products priced out of consumers affordability. sure china is willing to help.. they would love a bigger footprint in Europe's market. A high euro and a bigger foot print. what a phucking way to seal the euro's fate to 0.
people are blind...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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