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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,021
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:06am Jan 10, 2011 1:06am
Quoting felicciano
in the situation like this, dont take sell position, why? it simply because 83 is very cheap for yen. its so low... it won't go any lower... am rite or what?
I am in the profit zone.thanks though.
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  • #22,022
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:10am Jan 10, 2011 1:10am
Fundamentals say NFP came out better than previous. So USD supposed to be strong. Anyways I took 2lots long on usdjpy at price 82.99 SL 82.89 TP - 83.45
  • #22,023
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:20am Jan 10, 2011 1:20am
No shorts for me till 82.85 is broken.
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  • #22,024
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:25am Jan 10, 2011 4:25am
Quoting constin
You might be right but im trading with technical.
Why do you think 83 is very cheap for yen?
my opinion is a technical opinion... i believe u must be already seen the history of usdjpy chart. so tell me, according to that chart, is it 83 cheap or expensive? n for all of the traders in the whole universe, it always been the same : buy the cheap, sell the expensive. Am i rite or wrong then????????
  • #22,025
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:29am Jan 10, 2011 4:29am
Hello
lets whach tp or Sl going to hit?
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  • #22,026
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:30am Jan 10, 2011 4:30am
Quoting Shaggy_rock
U R very right
thx shaggy rock. but i wonder, why is the picture must be arnold? is it picturing u or what? hehehehehehehehehe. i mean arnold? c'mon...
  • #22,027
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:38am Jan 10, 2011 4:38am
Quoting dashlat
Hello
lets whach tp or Sl going to hit?
man... u got same position as i am. i think both of us will make cool nice warm spicy profit tonite... hehhehe dont u like it..?
  • #22,028
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:48am Jan 10, 2011 4:48am
Quoting felicciano
man... u got same position as i am. i think both of us will make cool nice warm spicy profit tonite... hehhehe dont u like it..?
Gooshhhh
i hope so ,
  • #22,029
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:48am Jan 10, 2011 6:48am
Quoting dashlat
Gooshhhh
i hope so ,
hiihihihihihihihihihihihihihihihihihihihi juzt kidding man... we need to relax sometime rite..?
  • #22,030
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:59pm Jan 10, 2011 2:59pm
the curse usd jpy dont say to go up.went long two times in the last three weeks(one couple of weeks earlier when broke 83,78 and got stopped) and now afew days ago at 83 and i am close to my stop again.

i know it should be head it up but it doesnt.anyone know why?
  • #22,031
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:05pm Jan 10, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting vapors
the curse usd jpy dont say to go up.went long two times in the last three weeks(one couple of weeks earlier when broke 83,78 and got stopped) and now afew days ago at 83 and i am close to my stop again.

i know it should be head it up but it doesnt.anyone know why?
Why *should* it head up?

If you look at the USD index, it isn't very strong, and that is a result of a weak US economy. EZ economy is also in a mess and that's where the main focus is. The EUR/USD pair isn't where it is because of USD strength, it's there because of EUR weakness.....that is to say that EUR is the worst of a troubled pair of currencies.

So, investers look for somewhere (or something) that is less risky to look after their money. At the moment, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen are deemed (rightly or wrongly, it doesn't matter), as safer places to invest in. This is hurting the Swiss and it's hurting the Japanese, but that's the way it is. Gold is also a safer bet for investers, although Gold has dropped a touch lately.

It's true that the Japanese economy is not in great shape.....last time I checked their debt to GDP ratio was in the region of 250% of GDP!!! (Compare that to the same for Greece at the height of it's troubles....160% of GDP). Japan also has an aging population, no natural resources, high unemployment, losing market share to Korea and China etc etc etc. To add to their woes they are trying to export their way out of trouble, but they can't because the Yen is too high, and this is hurting their export led recovery. Given all that, you would wonder why anyone would invest in the Yen at all. But, Japan has a large current account and is still seen as a safe haven currency.....as is the Swissy.

Sooner or later, the focus will be on Japan, and when that happens I expect to see the USD/JPY pair over the 100 mark. But at the moment, the focus is on EZ and USA problems.

So where will this pair go? I have no idea, but my bias is for the upside. Having said that, I won't be going long just because the Yen is "cheap" as has been said here. We have seen the USD/CHF pair make new historical lows, and the same could happen with this pair. The price will go wherever it wants. Best we stay nimble (and open minded), and take advantage of what is on offer, after careful analysis.

For what it's worth, last weeks bull candle looks promising for further upside, but this weeks candle may be crucial.....we shall have to wait and see. Meantime, we are in this green channel, with a big resistance at about 85.00 which will have to be broken before we can expect anything meaningful for a decent climb.

5c
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,032
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:15pm Jan 10, 2011 6:15pm
Quoting realjumper
Why *should* it head up?

If you look at the USD index, it isn't very strong, and that is a result of a weak US economy. EZ economy is also in a mess and that's where the main focus is. The EUR/USD pair isn't where it is because of USD strength, it's there because of EUR weakness.....that is to say that EUR is the worst of a troubled pair of currencies.

So, investers look for somewhere (or something) that is less risky to look after their money. At the moment, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen are deemed (rightly or wrongly, it doesn't...
Great post!
  • #22,033
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:52pm Jan 10, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting fosking
Great post!
Thank you.

I hope you had a good rest during the break? I had a complete computer meltdown......sigh.....but everything is up and running again. I did lose my link for the Yen futures chart though, so if you could post your futures chart when you get time, I would be very grateful. Thanks.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,034
  • Jan 10, 2011 7:44pm Jan 10, 2011 7:44pm
Quoting realjumper
Why *should* it head up?

If you look at the USD index, it isn't very strong, and that is a result of a weak US economy. EZ economy is also in a mess and that's where the main focus is. The EUR/USD pair isn't where it is because of USD strength, it's there because of EUR weakness.....that is to say that EUR is the worst of a troubled pair of currencies.

So, investers look for somewhere (or something) that is less risky to look after their money. At the moment, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen are deemed (rightly or wrongly, it doesn't matter),...
very good analisys! nearly pro.!
  • #22,035
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:55pm Jan 10, 2011 11:55pm
Quoting dashlat
Hello
lets whach tp or Sl going to hit?
mm..my humble advice is..if u wanna long better wait ~ 82.30/40-82/81.90 area...

cheers

g
  • #22,036
  • Jan 11, 2011 12:15am Jan 11, 2011 12:15am
Yen is 300 pips away from it records 1994 low.

Having said that, im bearish bias but with the idea of it still resistant to bounce or break some fib levels.
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  • #22,037
  • Jan 11, 2011 1:35am Jan 11, 2011 1:35am
Quoting realjumper
Thank you.

I hope you had a good rest during the break? I had a complete computer meltdown......sigh.....but everything is up and running again. I did lose my link for the Yen futures chart though, so if you could post your futures chart when you get time, I would be very grateful. Thanks.
Heya, Yeah the rest was good thanks (well needed). Hope you had a good break too.

Here is the Yen Futures chart below.
We have recently made a double bottom around the 11.84 area. Although the high made after this bounce hasn't managed to break the 12.46 high we saw on 31/10 and we made a lower high. Using the Fib levels of the last move down we have just bounced off the 32.8% Fib and are looking good to move lower. A break of the double bottom should take us down to the green support area on the chart below.

The USD/JPY weekly chart is what I'm currently looking at.
I haven't made any trades on USD/JPY this year and am looking to start building one over the next couple of weeks. My bias is still bullish, although I am a bit apprehensive of jumping in just yet. We are at a good level at the moment for a potential breakout higher, and will be waiting for confirmation of this before entering.

This year I am going to be trading longer term. Last year a big percentage of my profits came from longer term trades (looking at daily/weekly charts) and have decided to concentrate more of this than day trading.

Good luck guys.

Japanese Yen Futures H4
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USD/JPY Weekly
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  • #22,038
  • Jan 11, 2011 1:36am Jan 11, 2011 1:36am
morning fellas. thanks for your answer realjumber. i agree with most of the things you mentioned. seems during the night (since i live in greece and just waked up) it heard my pleas and went up again even though it came close to my stop levels 82,60. To be honest the main reason for entering this trade was that i would love to take the s/l that are gathered around the 85 area so i could feel like i am a one of the big boyshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif. so i did my ta and tried to find some good entry points to enter. of course i am also bullish for the usdjp since it hit the lowlow at 80 area and then moved upwards so that helped as well. Anyway i am not yet very confident that i saved my trade . lets wait and see
  • #22,039
  • Jan 11, 2011 2:19am Jan 11, 2011 2:19am
Quoting fosking
Heya, Yeah the rest was good thanks (well needed). Hope you had a good break too.

Here is the Yen Futures chart below.
We have recently made a double bottom around the 11.84 area. Although the high made after this bounce hasn't managed to break the 12.46 high we saw on 31/10 and we made a lower high. Using the Fib levels of the last move down we have just bounced off the 32.8% Fib and are looking good to move lower. A break of the double bottom should take us down to the green support area on the chart below.

The USD/JPY weekly chart is what...
Many thanks for the charts, and analysis....which is excellent as always.

I'm inclined to agree with you regarding longer term trading. I can to a similar conclusion in the last quarter of last year, although I'm not necessarily watching the weekly chart except for gaining an overall picture. For instance, on this pair and on usd/chf I will look longer term for profits.....assuming I can get a good entry of course! Rather than take the intraday profit I will leave the trade running and look to enter another trade after a pullback. In theory, from a (say) 500 pip move, it should be possible to milk it for 1500 pips or more over time, using multiple entries. There's a little bit more to it than that, but that's the gist of it! Nothing to stop me intraday trading when I feel the urge, but it would be nice to not have to watch the screen for so many hours!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,040
  • Jan 11, 2011 2:29am Jan 11, 2011 2:29am
Quoting realjumper
Many thanks for the charts, and analysis....which is excellent as always.

I'm inclined to agree with you regarding longer term trading. I can to a similar conclusion in the last quarter of last year, although I'm not necessarily watching the weekly chart except for gaining an overall picture. For instance, on this pair and on usd/chf I will look longer term for profits.....assuming I can get a good entry of course! Rather than take the intraday profit I will leave the trade running and look to enter another trade after a pullback. In theory,...
Completely. I will continue day trading EUR/USD and GBP/USD but for other pairs I'm looking to hold. Trading doesn't have to be stressful, it's just as stressful as you make it I guess.
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