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  • #421
  • Jan 9, 2011 12:59am Jan 9, 2011 12:59am
Quoting nanningbob
The quickest and shortest answer to your question is this.
1. They both show the same thing in real time so it is not an issue.
2. We saw we had plenty of possible trades in the first week and we had more winners than losers and most of our winners were bigger than our losers.
3. So ...................... we look to the future not the past and I am not so sure that TMA true is so true. That is an assumption that may not be true.
Hey, Bob. Before your answer, my response would have been... none. I have been attempting to learn Forex for a year or so and have realized that backtests mean sh!t. Only forward testing really matters. And the markets continue to change. And every broker is different; different spreads, different hours... So I'm wondering who this zznbrm (what does that mean?) is and is he/she here only to cause discord? We have been over the discussion of TMA so many time, I suggest you simply do not respond to any other comments on the subject. And when zznbrm says "our issues are", I wonder who the rabble is that he/she is leading who have all these issues? I have only seen a few people concerned with the TMA issue and for some reason, a few of them can't seem to get past this. In fact in Steve's autotrader thread, there is a comparison between the TMA and the LWMA. Check it out. Besides, as ALL Forex investors (should) know, "past results is not an indication of future performance", or something. So if anyone insists on dwelling on the past, well, start a new thread.

I will probably get blasted for this reply but I really don't care.
  • #422
  • Jan 9, 2011 3:16am Jan 9, 2011 3:16am
Quoting ericjschroed
Hey, Bob. Before your answer, my response would have been... none. I have been attempting to learn Forex for a year or so and have realized that backtests mean sh!t. Only forward testing really matters. And the markets continue to change. And every broker is different; different spreads, different hours... So I'm wondering who this zznbrm (what does that mean?) is and is he/she here only to cause discord? We have been over the discussion of TMA so many time, I suggest you simply do not respond to any other comments on the subject. And when zznbrm...
LOL it did allow me to teach a little further what I go through before I come to my conclusions. It is easy to criticize it is much harder to solve problems. You move up in the world by solving problems not point out faults. However there is a logic to my madness and I hope that helps others understand how I try to solve them. I am a teacher, teachers who mope and complain never get anywhere, teachers who solve problems move up. It is that simple. Almost 12,000 downloads, that shows that people are looking for answers to the problem and maybe I have solved enough that people listen when I think I have solved a problem. This thread and I have said before, tries to define the trend and then shows how to follow it. People, including myself, have been trying to define the trend for years. This is my effort to do so. Anyways, no more talk, I put my money on the line starting Monday, sink or swim.
  • #423
  • Jan 9, 2011 3:37am Jan 9, 2011 3:37am
Quoting nanningbob
..... and maybe I have solved enough that people listen when I think I have solved a problem.
Just a bit.
  • #424
  • Jan 9, 2011 4:06am Jan 9, 2011 4:06am
Question was why the charts can look different with diferent brokers. Here was my answer. Maybe some can add more to this.

"Problem is not you and the problem is not the broker. Probably the MT4 time setting is different. People in Europe MT4 TF will be different than those in the USA and different from those in Asia. This affects all indicators including candles etc. So the lines will be different between brokers. But this has more to do with the area of the world than anything else. For example those that trade in Australia and New Zealand get to trade before anyone else in the world. When my broker opens in the USA trading has been going on for hours and gaps happen in price action. Also those candles are not figured into the math at the beginning of the week with my broker but they are in New Zealand. Nothing you can do about it.
  • #425
  • Jan 9, 2011 6:15am Jan 9, 2011 6:15am
I only see three potential trades for Monday gbp/jpy, gbp/usd, usd/jpy. I wont turn on the EAs though until I see the gaps and will probably wait until just before the Euro open. The two jpy could be profitable during JPY session session so keep your eyes on them. Happy trading.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp jpy.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd jpy.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #426
  • Jan 9, 2011 6:17am Jan 9, 2011 6:17am
Bob, over in the auto-trader thread, some of the guys are suggesting that the 5MA needs to be the 'correct' side of the TMA centre for a trade to be taken - below for a buy and above for a sell.

Is this a part of your consideration?

If 'yes', I will add the filter.

If 'no' I will forget it.

If 'maybe' I will add it as a user option.

  • #427
  • Jan 9, 2011 6:30am Jan 9, 2011 6:30am
Quoting SteveHopwood
Bob, over in the auto-trader thread, some of the guys are suggesting that the 5MA needs to be the 'correct' side of the TMA centre for a trade to be taken - below for a buy and above for a sell.

Is this a part of your consideration?

If 'yes', I will add the filter.

If 'no' I will forget it.

If 'maybe' I will add it as a user option.

Yes the line should be on the same side of the TMA center as trade entrance however there is some discretion here. After the USA session to the open of the EURO you wont get much price movement so the lines maybe far apart but close the gap by the time the EUR or USA session opens. So I might turn on the EA early for those but would never do that during the USA session. Also the line is 5 hours in the future so if it dips strongly like the USD/JPY pic above I would like that scenario because the two will crash into each other in several hours and the trade should be good. For those that have computer access to their trades all day they can check every hour for a better tun on but for me I may not see the screen again for 4-6 hours and will take the chance they will meet later when the markets get busier. Of course you cant program that kind of discretion so ............
  • #428
  • Jan 9, 2011 6:33am Jan 9, 2011 6:33am
Steve I would lilke to see a time sensitive EA that wont trade until after 0000 GMT time. I dont think we will get much in trades or profit before the Euro session. Unlike the counter trade method where we maybe happy with those 20-40 pip profits during the JPY session I dont see that happening very much with this. I put the 5MA too far away. It is only looking for the stron move with the trend.
  • #429
  • Jan 9, 2011 7:05am Jan 9, 2011 7:05am
Quoting nanningbob
Steve I would lilke to see a time sensitive EA that wont trade until after 0000 GMT time. I dont think we will get much in trades or profit before the Euro session. Unlike the counter trade method where we maybe happy with those 20-40 pip profits during the JPY session I dont see that happening very much with this. I put the 5MA too far away. It is only looking for the stron move with the trend.
Those are the trading hours inputs. You can set am start/finish and pm start/finish.

They work on your computer's local time, so you set it to start trading after whatever your local time is at 0.00 gmt.

  • #430
  • Jan 9, 2011 7:10am Jan 9, 2011 7:10am
Oops. I just went to the code to add the 5MA filter, to find it is already included.

Clearly, I was taking notice of your documentation when I coded the ea - I forgot subsequently. Hey ho.

Make sure you use the ea's here for your live trading until I have tested the one in my thread to make sure it fulfils its waiting functions correctly. I am away for a couple of days and will not have access to the internet, so it will be Weds here in the UK before I can start testing properly.

  • #431
  • Jan 9, 2011 9:28am Jan 9, 2011 9:28am
Quoting ericjschroed
So I'm wondering who this zznbrm (what does that mean?) is and is he/she here only to cause discord?
I did not know our screen names have to "mean" something.

No, I am not here only to cause discord. There are a lot of people that read this thread...they deserve to know that many of the example trades in nanningbob's manual are erroneous and the strategy is not as great as it looks at first glance in backtest (or simply looking back through the charts) using the TMA Centered indicator.

It just pains me to continuously see the erroneous use of indicators. Not just on this thread, but throughout the entire FF community. People just do not understand how to use them correctly when looking at the past. They get blinded by the almight dollar.

Quote
We have been over the discussion of TMA so many time, I suggest you simply do not respond to any other comments on the subject.

It is a real shame that nanningbob cannot understand what the issue is.

It would probably be best if nanningbob simply banned me from the thread. On second thought, it makes more sense that I do not post anymore. I've made my point...so has nanningbob. As is always the case, it is up to each trader to make up their mind for themselves.

Quote
And when zznbrm says "our issues are", I wonder who the rabble is that he/she is leading who have all these issues? I have only seen a few people concerned with the TMA issue and for some reason, a few of them can't seem to get past this.

Yeah...I'm the leader of a posse who's sole purpose is to bring discontent to Forex Factory trading discussions.

I've received many PM's about this issue - traders wondering the same thing - why would anyone show past "example" trades based upon the TMA Centered indicator?

Quote
In fact in Steve's autotrader thread, there is a comparison between the TMA and the LWMA.

Who do you think wrote the TMATrue indicator?

Quote
I will probably get blasted for this reply but I really don't care.

Why would you get blasted for your reply? You are just another "anonymous" person stating his opinion.

Look, the bottom line is this:

Everyone backtests in one way or another - be it visually looking through their charts, using an EA in MT4 Strategy Tester, using a Simulator, or writing their own custom-built testing mechanism. Everyone puts a different degree of importance to this backtesting.

Depending on the specifications of the strategy and the method used to backtest, the accuracy of the results will vary greatly. But one thing I can assure you...

Past results based upon re-calculating (repainting) indicators will always be invalid unless the proper steps are taken to "correct" the re-calculated data of these indicators.
  • #432
  • Edited 10:42am Jan 9, 2011 9:57am | Edited 10:42am
zznbrm I think you've turned the horse into glue by now. Bob has explained over and over that the TMA is only a guide and the 5x5 in for entry. Every single trade taken using TMA True as the guide, would also have been taken using TMA Center as the guide. Sure, if you go back in history and look at TMA Centered there will have been more trades, but that's not the point. The point is in real time, TMA True gives the same guidlines as TMA Centered.

So why don't you just drop the endless argument and let us worry about when and how we enter a trade.

thx,
todd
  • #433
  • Edited 11:42am Jan 9, 2011 11:29am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting todd960960
The point is in real time, TMA True gives the same guidlines as TMA Centered.
Correct, but NB's documentation has charts that were not based on real time, they were historical. Look back at zznbrm's comparison graph and you will see two examples of NB's method that would have taken trades (as in NB's documentation), but would not have been taken in real-time. This cannot simply be overlooked.

Now this is not nessesarily an issue but something to take note of and resolve. How do you resolve an issue with a system that uses repainting indis. In this case, use TMATrue for backtesting or forward test.

Lucky for us duffypratt has backtested using TMATrue and still found good results. NB is about to forward test.

I suggest that all those "TMA is crap" people forward test and prove that the system is still crap in real-time, as I think we can safely say we've been warned about the repainting/historical/real-time issue and also suggest that those "close my eyes and ears and just follow a system without really understanding" people wait for the forward test results to see if real-time trading with TMA is still profitable even though historical backtest charts using TMA are fundimentaly flawed.

Personally, I cannot rely on the backtests of historical charts with TMA attached, that is why I load the template in strat tester and visually real-time test historical data as the bars tick. I have a gut feeling that the system will still be profitable, but with less trades than expected.

JC
  • #434
  • Jan 9, 2011 11:35am Jan 9, 2011 11:35am
Hi Bob et al,

This is a TMATrue vs 240MA histogram (need to have TMATrue.ex4 in indicator folder). Once again, I'm sure someone else will come up with a prettier all singing all dancing version.

JC
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TMATrue(Mid)vMA.mq4   < 1 KB | 626 downloads
  • #435
  • Jan 9, 2011 12:40pm Jan 9, 2011 12:40pm
Quoting nanningbob
I only see three potential trades for Monday gbp/jpy, gbp/usd, usd/jpy. I wont turn on the EAs though until I see the gaps and will probably wait until just before the Euro open. The two jpy could be profitable during JPY session session so keep your eyes on them. Happy trading.
DANGER, WILL ROBINSON!! Did you intend to use the H4 for GBPJPY? On the H1 it's in an UT.
  • #436
  • Jan 9, 2011 1:24pm Jan 9, 2011 1:24pm
As people may have guessed by now, I'm a fan of backtesting. It's silly to think that a person could come up with a good system in any market without having first studied how the market has behaved. Backtesting simply puts the idea to the test on the best data that is available.

For those who prefer forward testing, you should understand its limitations as well. A backtest can give you an approximation for how a system would have performed over the period tested. Forward testing does exactly the same thing. It's superiority comes from two factors: it takes things like slippage into account; and it also incorporates the trader (in real time) into the test. Other than being more accurate in these two ways, it is no better an indicator of how the system will perform in the future. Like any test, it can only tell you how the system actually performed over a sample of trades. The main drawback of forward testing, of course, is that it takes a long time.

Also, please keep in mind what my tests have shown so far. They show very good results over the last year and half on three pairs: EU, EJ, and USDDKK. They show decent, but not great, results over the last two years for GBPCHF. More pairs to come. They say nothing at all about how the system would perform in other markets. And they say very little about how well a person, who has emotions and the need to sleep, could actually trade the system.

Lets say the TMA and the 240 are converging, and there's been alot of volatility. Already, you have had three failed set-ups, and are now down 6% on your account. The system says to take another trade. But the stop loss now is only 15, and you have been burned three times in a row. Do you take the trade? My guess is that most people wouldn't. But this is exactly the point where I have seen trades take off for 120-150 pips. The six percent loss becomes a 10-15% net gain in the fourth trade. But how many people would have the courage to actually trade it this way? Would I? I don't know the answer to that.

The biggest problem with backtesting is that people tend to make too much of the results. That's why so many people get taken by people who have come up with curve-fitted black boxes. Real trading is very different. From my tests, I think that this system is promising. I have no idea yet whether I could trade it with success.
  • #437
  • Jan 9, 2011 1:34pm Jan 9, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting ericjschroed
DANGER, WILL ROBINSON!! Did you intend to use the H4 for GBPJPY? On the H1 it's in an UT.
OOOOOOOOPPSSSSSSSS sorry. Scratch the GBP/JPY. Thanks for the catch.
  • #438
  • Jan 9, 2011 1:46pm Jan 9, 2011 1:46pm
Quoting zznbrm
I did not know our screen names have to "mean" something.

No, I am not here only to cause discord. There are a lot of people that read this thread...they deserve to know that many of the example trades in nanningbob's manual are erroneous and the strategy is not as great as it looks at first glance in backtest (or simply looking back through the charts) using the TMA Centered indicator.

It just pains me to continuously see the erroneous use of indicators. Not just on this thread, but throughout the entire FF community. People just do not...
There is one major problem with your argument and that is this, a note from one trader but I probably have gotten hundreds of them over the years. I quote:

"Thank you very much for your systems.I follow your threads nearly 2 years and through your ideas I found a good trading style for myself.

Now I have more winners than loosers. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif"

You think a system will fail because you think that if an indicator has a weakness it cant be used. We are not using the TMA's weakness, we are using its strength. That is the weakness of your argument that you cannot see. But enough of this. Heard the same arguments with the RWB indicator. We over came its weaknesses too to become profitable.
  • #439
  • Jan 9, 2011 2:00pm Jan 9, 2011 2:00pm
I have removed the 1 voucher needed to post. Simply filling up my mailbox with questions and answers that really should be public. So i think i made my point. Thanks for your patience.
  • #440
  • Jan 9, 2011 2:50pm Jan 9, 2011 2:50pm
Bob, thank you very much for your all contributions. I have a confusion point about 5+5 MA. In your text (1. message) you said that this is smoothed MA but in one message that LWMA. Which one?
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