EURUSD

Hi Cloggie,

any suggestions for NFP?

UP or DOWN?

Eu honohan speaking now

i know is pre NFP but come on ANNA you are smart trader. You made an irrefutable argument, be a good sport and let the clarity of your post speak for itself.

What are your views for NFP and after?

sisse

what can i say, you are scrapping the bottom of the barrel... there is something called the data protection act, such info cant be obtained, unless you break in... i doubt you'd be capable when you are buying against weekly downtrendlines

u only can predict the trend of currency pair whether it's is going to up or down once the NFP is released and the PA of the candle.

Only a good hourly close above 3110, gives it back to the bulls, otherwise bears have control. I'd like to see a test of the 3050 area followed by a failure for a short. Thats the only trade for me. Good luck, PTL

Fuck, I mistook CAD Unemployment Rate for USD and now I'm already short at 1.2955

huh????

sorry, instant classic...just cover the dam thing then...

Is that bad?
Who knows it might drop 100 pips after the NFP......

solid

or god!!!!!! what a relief from the muppetters...

below 2850-40... is downhill alert... but will wait until next week and i have all my pending sells anyways so not getting involved, as im confident of the levels... the NFP even its good wouldn't ve affected the euro much, and could've led to a rally, but there is the downgrades and not US strength behind all this... possibility of France and Spain downgrades are a reality and lots of money to be made in between jan/feb and then its to the UK...

NFP numbers, bearish... i dont see any jobs created last month but next will be a lot better with the new house of rep leader etc job growth will come back.. so jan/feb transitions is to watch for

can u give tell me that we're talking about who ?
i think i'm lost in the middle of argument
thanks guys

Hatch how about a beer that oanda disconnects for couple of 10min

u be lucky if the pair goes down BUT if it goes up? close ur trade.

better close it. : p

or it might rise, the idea was to wait 15 to 30 min and then enter. But in my haste I mistook the two and euro went a bit lower so I though:"oh here we go again".

Anyhow it was a stupid mistake. T-minus 14min let's see where it goes.

EUR is floating on fumes above small support at 1.2950.

Be sure to be on right side, this is the first time real volumes come on market this year, the move surely will be exaggerated

I have no clue, I am not going to predict a heavily manipulated news report.

As an opinion, however, if the report is as far out as the IC and Challenger were earlier in the week then there is only one way to go; down, and by quite a bit. The market can be weird at times. We could easily see a large move up if the numbers are not as great as they were on Wednesday even though the NFP is good news.

As to trading this, I sit and wait for the numbers to come out, watch and ignore the initial reaction, wait for either a solid top or bottom and join the fat part of the trade and the resultant trend of the move. I never trade the initial reaction, only the resulting direction and then only if it agrees with my fundamental view.

What am I looking at now? We have an option barrier here at 2950, want to see how that gets defended, taking a few long scalps of the barrier until a clearer direction is formed here, my bias is still solidly down and nothing has changed that. I will be flat from about 30 mins before, watch the positioning, watch the initial spike, if that spike is contrary to the fundamentals then I will get in, if that spike is with the fundamentals, I wait for the counter spike (there are always 2 on every NFP).

What do I prefer? A good NFP so the trend is confirmed and all I have to do is look for a decent short entry. A far greater then forecasted number and I will get in on the top spike, a small increase and I will wait for the top spike to materialise and the techs solidly confirming a further down move, a smaller then expected number and I will ignore both spikes only to see the resultant confirmation of the trend. A smaller number may well start a retrace here for some decent profit taking.

I am not going to try to catch the first spike, just ignore it.

Oh and as an aside I will be covering all my longer term shorts right before the news, this could trigger a retrace, the market is due one and I want to protect my profits if it does.

So:
1. far greater then expected, short the top.
2. only marginally larger, wait for the trend to establish.
3. only marginally smaller, ignore both spikes
4. far smaller then expected, trade the retrace

Vladimir: We dont have to bet on that one - it will happen