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  • #360,481
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:24am Jan 7, 2011 5:24am
my guess is that EUR/USD will spike up then decline, on the NFP release. But won't close below $1.29 this week. Probably in the same price range where it trades now (1.2970-1.3)
  • #360,482
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:24am Jan 7, 2011 5:24am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
don't pay too much attention to the news, stick to your charts. so to speak good nummbers are good for currency. you do not know how the professional side sees the numbers, this means even if the number comes in better than expected, usd can drop. the explanation for this then is, that they have expected better numbers and it was already priced in.
Thanks HDA

Yes i know all that about charts, prices etc, but i also noticed the results can make currencies (EU, AU, GU etc) dive or shoot up, so must be something in it imo.
  • #360,483
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:26am Jan 7, 2011 5:26am
Quoting gh0stjpy
Thanks HDA

Yes i know all that about charts, prices etc, but i also noticed the results can make currencies (EU, AU, GU etc) dive or shoot up, so must be something in it imo.
gh0stjpy: You are most welcome
  • #360,484
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:27am Jan 7, 2011 5:27am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
more detail. this to me looks like building the base and has accumulation character after the execessive vol downbar from yesterday hit us sideways.

honestly...we drop since three days, there are always two campaigns a trading week, discovered 100 years ago. we are below 3000 psychological level, news are bearish (god bless those paying attention to news...) everybody is in eur superbear mode, especially now that we are below 3000.

this is my current chartreading. might fail, but i have my reasons to assume that we will see a rally later on....
Nice one Dr G. Totally agree with EVERYTHING you wrote.
  • #360,485
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:33am Jan 7, 2011 5:33am
I love this thread pre NFP...lol
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #360,486
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:34am Jan 7, 2011 5:34am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I love this thread pre NFP...lol
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #360,487
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:36am Jan 7, 2011 5:36am
Quoting Hda
gh0stjpy: That is correct.
In theory that is correct but that does not always apply during big news releases!
Assuming that good news will always be positive for a currency and bad news will always be negative leads traders into traps..

"minutes after the “normal” reaction, the risk factor kicks in and eventually the opposite happens: good data yields dollar weakness (risk appetite), while bad data yields dollar strength (risk aversion)" [this is taken from a post of yesterday].
  • #360,488
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:37am Jan 7, 2011 5:37am
With more talk of a big NFP number bouyed by Wednesday's ADP +297k number, we could see some knee-jerk reaction pressure on the € if that scenario comes to pass.

Looking at the downside in this pairing, price this London morning made a show below the 1st December swing lo, area of 61.8% 2148-4285 before the rally off 2960-current daily lo. below here and the 127% fib extension of the 3050-3435 daily swing followed by the previous daily swing hi x 2 (previous resistance=potential support) and the 138% fib extension of same daily swing. Below here the 161.8% fib extension of that daily swing as well as the 61.8% of main daily/weekly/monthly swing up 1875-4285. Under here and a previous daily swing lo zone with 76.4% of the daily swing2148-4285 in the mix there, before a previous daily/weekly swing lo zone leading down to the 2580 area daily/weekly swing lo.

Of course, anything can happen on a data/news release and the likely knee-jerk -near term market direction may be heavily influenced by this one.

G/L

http://www.easy-upload.net/fichiers/z.201117123554.gif
ex member
  • #360,489
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:47am Jan 7, 2011 5:47am
Quoting BrunargarFx
In theory that is correct but that does not always apply during big news releases!
Assuming that good news will always be positive for a currency and bad news will always be negative leads traders into traps..

"minutes after the “normal” reaction, the risk factor kicks in and eventually the opposite happens: good data yields dollar weakness (risk appetite), while bad data yields dollar strength (risk aversion)" [this is taken from a post of yesterday].
BrunargarFx: You are correct, however, that was yesterdays posts. The real time as Im typing this market talk is " the degree to which the market is now leaning implies two things, ONE - that the bar for a "positive" NFP surprise is higher and that TWO - the EUR?USD's vulnerability to a weak outcome has grown"

Sentiments change on an on going basis - Trading the news especially this news is extreme extreme high risk. More money can be made trading outside of the news, but for those who prefer to trade the news, HIGHER risk seems to be the food of thought.
  • #360,490
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:48am Jan 7, 2011 5:48am
like my brokers data....

lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 51 KB
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #360,491
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:50am Jan 7, 2011 5:50am
NFP priced in already, time for euro to go up.
Inserted Video
  • #360,492
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:52am Jan 7, 2011 5:52am
Quoting mdrive
NFP priced in already, time for euro to go up.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zm7RM...re=uploademail
be careful brother..... : /
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #360,493
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:53am Jan 7, 2011 5:53am
Quoting PayTheLimit
look everyone here is expressing their opinions, why people go nuts is something I just dont understand....
is it NFP Friday or PMT Friday??? bahaha
  • #360,494
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:53am Jan 7, 2011 5:53am
You sound like a seasoned trader. A fresh view with good posts is always good for this thread.

However, going back to your chart and playing devils advocate for those who doesn't follow volume in the way you do, what is the difference or what is the advantage of using volume as all of your marking points (regardless of vol) are highlighting 100% clear rejection bars that despite of vol would have give you "valid" fade trades.

sisse

Quoting Dr.Geppynius
more detail. this to me looks like building the base and has accumulation character after the execessive vol downbar from yesterday hit us sideways.

honestly...we drop since three days, there are always two campaigns a trading week, discovered 100 years ago. we are below 3000 psychological level, news are bearish (god bless those paying attention to news...)...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #360,495
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:54am Jan 7, 2011 5:54am
Quoting mdrive
NFP priced in already, time for euro to go up.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zm7RM...re=uploademail

excellent video.. i called 2850 this morning as the final call, i guess 2840 sounds good
  • #360,496
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:58am Jan 7, 2011 5:58am
Quoting gh0stjpy
is it NFP Friday or PMT Friday??? bahaha
gh0stjpy: We are just killing time until the MAIN EVENT - Mike TYSON versus HOLIFIELD
  • #360,497
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:59am Jan 7, 2011 5:59am
the point with volume is that it shows the effort. if price was rejected and high vol kicked in, this gives us clues which have to be confirmed. it tells a story and background as always has to be paid attention to. if you see sudden volume surges (excessive) up or down and then market stalls e:g. we can assume someone big stepped in to stop the move. i have not yet made any call, just my views of what could be cooking here. if i see a trigger later on, i will post it.


Quoting sisse
You sound like a seasoned trader. A fresh view with good posts is always good for this thread.

However, going back to your chart and playing devils advocate for those who doesn't follow volume in the way you do, what is the difference or what is the advantage of using volume as all of your marking points (regardless of vol) are highlighting 100% clear rejection bars that despite of vol would have give you "valid" fade trades.

sisse
  • #360,498
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:01am Jan 7, 2011 6:01am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Translated means: 'La la la, I don't know how to interpret volume, la la la, it must be rubbish, la la la, not listening'
ukdaytrader: You are the best - I didnt realise thats what it meant - thanks for the translation.
  • #360,499
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:02am Jan 7, 2011 6:02am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
the point with volume is that it shows the effort. if price was rejected and high vol kicked in, this gives us clues which have to be confirmed. it tells a story and background as always has to be paid attention to. if you see sudden volume surges (excessive) up or down and then market stalls e:g. we can assume someone big stepped in to stop the move. i have not yet made any call, just my views of what could be cooking here. if i see a trigger later on, i will post it.
Ok you must take in consideration of the volume but the volume that you see it is not the real one and depends on the broker you use.
  • #360,500
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:04am Jan 7, 2011 6:04am
Hii all, too much people dismiss USA minister of finance saying. He say last night we are going to failure to meet a financial obligation is available. So Today national accounts will raise 15 b$ they are talking. I think $ next week will down.

VjjKK From Turkey
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