EURUSD

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2011-01-07_07h45_ EURUSD _ min003 _ 1100 x 800 (BarChart).PNG (27.4 KB)

Yes ... it is the close that counts ... and as I see you use Midnight US for that ...

As far as I know 22:00 UTC (23:00 CET) is a common used standard ...


;-)

buy limit EURUSD at 1.2977
deleted

Long again 1.2988

add long 2977

waiting close at low & long there to see .
fontu

why do you countertrend,,??
What is not too risky,

Morning,

Im a bit early today...

Looks like a fake break to down side...

Well ... it depends on time frame ... if you like to call / name it countertrend or not ...

;-)

Because EU retraces 9 out of 10 times, good odds really...

If you have watched EU pa for x thousand hours, you start to get a feel for when it's likely to retrace and when it isn't, add to this tick vol analysis and you can enter with a measure of confidence...

But counter trending is for scalping only and you have to be decisive and get out if it moves against you...

out total 10 pips

That's the way I usually do to have pips daily.

two of EU's news are very disappointing..so can i go for short now

my trades for asian session i'm off now i don't trade nfp day from now on.

good luck everybody

an over exaggeration on my part, I think the official stat is that it retraces 75% of breaks (still good odds)...

Take a look at your m1 tf for the past 45 minutes, a typical example...

& MS makes a good point, a counter trend on the m15 or higher is a trend on the m1...

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif 2011-01-07_00h37_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors +.pdf (11.6 KB)




ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors
7 Jan 2011, 00:37

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)




EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower as markets await U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Pair undermined by bullish USD sentiment; increased jitters over European bank debt after EU published consultation paper looking to set framework for dealing with bank failures that suggest bondholders should share burden in paying for future bailouts; worries that euro-zone debt crisis will intensify as fiscally-strapped governments compete with banks in capital markets to raise funds this year. But EUR/USD losses tempered by positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 0700 GMT German November trade balance and retail sales, 1000 GMT euro-zone November unemployment and 3Q GDP (2nd estimate), 1100 GMT German November industrial production index. EUR/USD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics bearish; MACD staging bearish crossover against its exponential moving average; bearish parabolic stop-and-reverse signal hit at 1.3123 yesterday. Support at 1.2969 (Nov. 30 reaction low); breach would expose downside with no significant support until 1.2642 (Sept. 10 reaction low), then 1.2584 (Aug. 24 trough). Resistance at 1.3170 (yesterday's high); breach would temper near-term negative outlook, exposing upside to 1.3325 (Wednesday's high), then 1.3433 (Tuesday's high), 1.3446 (55-day moving average) and 1.3500 (Dec. 14 reaction high).



;-)

morning all,
market is expecting a good strong NFP - could pushing USD stronger..

we´ll see

LoL
good luck.

moin mercy

Moin Tom ...

Keine Rosn heute ?

from dailyfx news

Trading Under Heavy NFP Speculation

John Kicklighter, On Thursday January 6, 2011, 6:58 pm EST
We are officially in the non-farm payrolls gravity field. Over the past six months or so, I have more or less ignored this indicator. That may seem a contradiction to many; but we have to put it into context. Though it is still one of the most visible economic releases out there; it is released on a Friday when liquidity is already tapering off into the weekend. That means we can only really trade it for a short-term run with any level of confidence. Given the general interest in the report, a lot of traders will have positioned ahead of the report; and they will have to adjust for the actual release. Furthermore, there is another segment of traders that will take advantage of this activity to speculate after the release. Combined, these two parties make for interesting trading conditions for a few hours. However, these types of trades are naturally limited by how far the market can go in such a short time. As for the medium-term reaction, follow through on this indicator rarely carries over to the following week. And, the market is well aware of the general state of employment in the United States; so one release is not going to dramatically alter the long-term outlook.

...

This time around, however, things are already different. Though unofficial, there have been a few forecasts that have been thrown out about a near-half million net job increase for December. A figure that size can carry speculation to Monday and perhaps even alter the long-term recovery picture. On the other hand, it sets the bar exceptionally high - perhaps impossibly high. In a scenario where the data is better or worse than expected, most seem to be expecting the former; so the later would be the more market moving.

...

How do we apply this knowledge to trading? Well, for my existing setups, it encourages caution. The long USDCHF has already slowed in its advance. With the first target having already come and gone at 0.9590; it is prudent to trail the stop up a little ahead of breakeven (0.9550). This pair is well set for continuation of nascent bull trend; but I wouldn't jump in here nor would I want to gamble with a wide stop. The long-term USDJPY long, I won't allow myself to become concerned with. This is exactly the type of distraction that I want to ignore for a view over months for true fundamentals to take over. And, it is interesting to look at the AUDCAD short that tagged its first target today at 0.99. Will this and other crosses be effected? If NFPs shakes risk appetite trends loose finally, then the shockwave will be wide. But, if the S&P 500 doesn't react, then it will likely stay with the dollar.

...

And, while I don't usually trade on Friday's or around event risk; there does seem to genuine opportunity tomorrow. My favorite pair's for these looming event risk are those that can translate a sharp volatility event into a breakout and possible trend generation. On this front, EURUSD is testing its late-November swing low at 1.2975. That can be an opportunity for a range reversal or a breakout; but I'd prefer the latter. And further under the radar but perhaps carry more potential is GBPUSD. A short-term break of 1.5450 support is possible; but the real range is 1.5650 to 1.5300. Should those larger levels give, I will be very interested.

"Moin" ... Are you from Luxemburg ?