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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #10,021
  • Jan 6, 2011 6:40pm Jan 6, 2011 6:40pm
you know, it is interesting to see the progress. but still a way to go.
  • #10,022
  • Jan 6, 2011 6:40pm Jan 6, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting shiko
Oh Yeah! already more than a year old. and it is public , lol
u mean the FxBook one?
  • #10,023
  • Jan 6, 2011 7:11pm Jan 6, 2011 7:11pm
Quoting MktScape
u mean the FxBook one?
yes. myfxbook
  • #10,024
  • Jan 6, 2011 7:34pm Jan 6, 2011 7:34pm
would like to exit GJ +20

GJ not yet taken off and with NFP looming, may very well not move until then

Quoting Jungles
Hi, continuing on with my trend trading experiment 2011

i interpret the trend on 240 to be up, right now! ..........but will it last to 130.40?

any takers??
  • #10,025
  • Jan 6, 2011 7:49pm Jan 6, 2011 7:49pm
Custos, regarding back testing. I started since January 2009, but that period looks absolutelly unreal. that situation is unlike any other. I see 4H candles on E/U bigger than the whole day now. may be bactesting should concentrate on more regular years price action? not 2008-2009 but later or earlier
  • #10,026
  • Jan 6, 2011 10:08pm Jan 6, 2011 10:08pm
will exit early due to NFP, +60

Quoting Jungles
i also have a buy here, which is now looking a bit crappy,
i want that latest lower high to be broken to get my confidence back, otherwise its tight stops
.............let's see
  • #10,027
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:13am Jan 7, 2011 12:13am
Quoting MktScape
Talking of trading psychology i am listing the top mistakes which eventually kill a trader's carrier. I am listing some of them here, i think its good to reiterate every now and then. You can add to it as well:

1) Not knowing what type of trader they are i.e short term, medium term, longer term, scalping ?

2) False Expectation - i.e. want to make 20% every month at all cost leading to taking wrong setups and pushing trades / over trading. Want too make too much too fast. Trying to eat the elephant in one bite.

3) Impatience - Feel like trading...
point 13 should be point 1, cause no matter how good your psychology is, if you don't have an ege, you are doomed to failure.
  • #10,028
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:15am Jan 7, 2011 12:15am
Quoting shiko
Custos, regarding back testing. I started since January 2009, but that period looks absolutelly unreal. that situation is unlike any other. I see 4H candles on E/U bigger than the whole day now. may be bactesting should concentrate on more regular years price action? not 2008-2009 but later or earlier
That is why it's important to get lots and lots of trades, so that you can incorporate the "unreal" periods and the more regular years.

After all, unreal periods also happen more often than classic probability states.

So don't be lazy, get a few thousand trades written down to find out the real expectancy of a pattern. Just gonna take a couple of weeks to months, if you do it manually.
  • #10,029
  • Jan 7, 2011 12:25am Jan 7, 2011 12:25am
Quoting shiko
good list.
psychology is 90% of success.
researching profitable patterns and knowing its expectancy is 90% of success.
  • #10,030
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:42am Jan 7, 2011 1:42am
Quoting Custos
researching profitable patterns and knowing its expectancy is 90% of success.
No psychology is number one.
but you need a method to trade first. Once you have it, psychology is number one. people have methods that have an edge but cannot make oney. because of psychological factor.
Trading is very psychological.
  • #10,031
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:11am Jan 7, 2011 3:11am
Quoting Custos
researching profitable patterns and knowing its expectancy is 90% of success.
I agree with this 100%.

However i think one has to have a basic understanding of what is their "niche" within the markets.

I started on 4h/dailies doing pretty much the same that im doing now, 2 years later.

Soon i realized that for me *personally*, this wasnt the route i wanted to take.

Now i work on 1m/5m charts. Crazy? Nop. It works for me.

But the point is that i figured out "what type of trader i am", and now as you know im defining the true expectancy of my system.

Heard good comments on Enhancing trader performance. i must get it. Brett Steenbarger i think

cheers
  • #10,032
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:29am Jan 7, 2011 3:29am
Quoting shiko
No psychology is number one.
but you need a method to trade first. Once you have it, psychology is number one. people have methods that have an edge but cannot make oney. because of psychological factor.
Trading is very psychological.
I think we all would be surprised how few methods really have an edge. That's why 95% of people fail, cause of methods that don't provide an edge.

I give again my casino analogy. No matter how good your psychology is in the casino, you will never ever be able to make money in the long-term, cause the edge is always on the house's side. (Excluding blackjack and poker of course).

Same is with the market. 99% of systems around here seem to have an edge, but once verified you realize that it either does not have an edge at all or a too small one.

So, no matter how developed your psychology is, if the system doesn't have a verified edge, psychology will not save you.
  • #10,033
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:30am Jan 7, 2011 3:30am
Quoting Pipalicious
I agree with this 100%.

However i think one has to have a basic understanding of what is their "niche" within the markets.

I started on 4h/dailies doing pretty much the same that im doing now, 2 years later.

Soon i realized that for me *personally*, this wasnt the route i wanted to take.

Now i work on 1m/5m charts. Crazy? Nop. It works for me.

But the point is that i figured out "what type of trader i am", and now as you know im defining the true expectancy of my system.

Heard good comments on Enhancing trader performance. i must get it....


I actually started from 1min charts. It was very stressful for me and I was slowly going up time frame ladder. I can say I can do pretty well on lower time frame as long as I am patient and control losses, but I do not want to be glued to screen all the time, plus big guys are obviously reside on higher time frames, so, i am trying to develop myself as a higher time frame trader. actually watching price action on lower time frames help me now a lot because I have a feeling for where price is going and I add set ups posted here.
The edge is very important but most traders will not follow the edge and will not have discipline to cut losses. If psychology is not a factor, than yes, I agree with Custos, but in most cases it is not the case.
I remember Turtles were given a complete strategy! with definite edge and as far as I remember most of them did not make it. why? psychology!
  • #10,034
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:32am Jan 7, 2011 3:32am
Quoting shiko
I actually started from 1min charts. It was very stressful for me and I was slowly going up time frame ladder. I can say I can do pretty well on lower time frame as long as I am patient and control losses, but I do not want to be glued to screen all the time, plus big guys are obviously reside on higher time frames, so, i am trying to develop myself as a higher time frame trader. actually watching price action on lower time frames help me now a lot because I have a feeling for where price is going and I add set ups posted here.
The edge is very...
yes, that's why I said, edge is 90%. Because 10% will be psychology to actually execute the edge with discipline.
  • #10,035
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:34am Jan 7, 2011 3:34am
Quoting Custos
I think we all would be surprised how few methods really have an edge. That's why 95% of people fail, cause of methods that don't provide an edge.

I give again my casino analogy. No matter how good your psychology is in the casino, you will never ever be able to make money in the long-term, cause the edge is always on the house's side. (Excluding blackjack and poker of course).

Same is with the market. 99% of systems around here seem to have an edge, but once verified you realize that it either does not have an edge at all or a too small one....

I think it is mostly true if you want to trade mechanically without much thinking than statistics is very important, but I also think that when we trade we should put as many odds on our side as possible.
it is like fighting a war. terrain, weather condition, morale of the troops and so forth. so we are looking to enter along the trend, momentum, suuport resistance, some crucial points that price seems bend to break through, MA's showing orderly price, failure to take out some level , price gotta ggo somewhere, overall price mood.
  • #10,036
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:37am Jan 7, 2011 3:37am
Quoting shiko
I think it is mostly true if you want to trade mechanically without much thinking than statistics is very important, but I also think that when we trade we should put as many odds on our side as possible.
it is like fighting a war. terrain, weather condition, morale of the troops and so forth. so we are looking to enter along the trend, momentum, suuport resistance, some crucial points that price seems bend to break through, MA's showing orderly price, failure to take out some level , price gotta ggo somewhere, overall price mood.
we had that argument one time before. Now I tell you again: statistics doesn't have anything to do with mechanical or discretionary.

You can make statistics out of anything, be it discretionary or mechanical. And these statistics will then show you if you have an edge at all. And then it's just a matter of executing the edge you have, be it discretionary or mechanical.
  • #10,037
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:38am Jan 7, 2011 3:38am
interesting post from James16... kinda close to what we are talking now here:

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...ar147697_1.gif Adilius07 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...ser_online.gif
MAKE IT HAPPEN
Member Since Jul 2010
1,129 Posts

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by chriskins http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Hi Adilius

Do you have a clear trading plan for each setup type? Do you stick to those rules? Have you demoed/microlot traded your plan on longer timeframes until profitable for 3months?

I know I am new to this thread but not new to trading....

Hello Chris,

Yes of course I am trying to do this with as much discipline as I possible can. I have a trading plan of course, then I have a Flash Cards that lay in front of my eyes all the time (where I have some most important rules to follow in short, this is like my cheat sheet.)

I also have a trading journal (in my signature) where I record everytrade I make. I also have excel file that second every trade from that journal - that is where I keep my thoughts for each trade.

I don't have overtrading or MM problems. The only problem I have is this:

- When I see a setup (and I skip a lot believe me) I think it is an A+ I take it, I get a loss, then I look again and at it and it doesn't look that good anymore. Now, when I look back (backtesting) all the setups look good, clear, all those concepts like space, structure, location etc. align nicely... I know precisely what I'm looking for.... however the setup forming in real time is very much different to those in backtest, for one simple reason - the outcome is unknown.... unfortunately... http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/smilies/yim/sad.gif
  • #10,038
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:41am Jan 7, 2011 3:41am
Quoting Custos
we had that argument one time before. Now I tell you again: statistics doesn't have anything to do with mechanical or discretionary.

You can make statistics out of anything, be it discretionary or mechanical. And these statistics will then show you if you have an edge at all. And then it's just a matter of executing the edge you have, be it discretionary or mechanical.
I agree.
  • #10,039
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:13am Jan 7, 2011 4:13am
Quoting shiko
interesting post from James16... kinda close to what we are talking now here:

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...ar147697_1.gif...
well, a general suggestion. If somebody tries to backtest manually. It is better to use a forward test. Like in forextester2, where you can replay the real market. Then you have unbiased real statistics.
  • #10,040
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:20am Jan 7, 2011 4:20am
Here lies the key to consistency.

Statistics coupled with a thorough plan of action.

For entries, management, and exits.

An exercise i do regularly is to write down as my trade develops both how i feel and what my plan says to do.

IF...A happens THEN i will do x

IF...B happens THEN i will do z

No remorse, no emotion, no indecision. Rule based trading, be it with SOME discretion or mechanical.

I consider myself to be very rule based around my entries and exits. I can define EXACTLY what i did and if i did it wrong.

As long as one can define EXACTLY each step, he can garner statistics to validate if there is or isnt an edge.

I do apply some discretion, but it is minimal and based purely on price volatility/momentum, news, sessions...

The MINUTE, i repeat, the MINUTE i started doing IF...THEN principles, my indecision and "mindset" was sound. No doubts, no indecision.

So in the end, 90% IS statistics but IMHO ONLY if they can be clearly defined with rules.

The rest is discipline, and here again, i IMHO believe that DISCIPLINE comes with one testing thoroughly the system to identify and PROVE to one self, that the system DOES have a true positive expectancy.

Only then, IMHO, will a trader have the discipline to stick to his/her guns.
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